Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estill, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The upper ridge will begin to slowly weaken overnight as a powerful upper low over the northern Plains meanders to the east. A warm, dry night is expected as a slightly pinched pressure gradient remains in place. Lows should only drop into the lower-mid 70s, possibly a tad cooler in spots across mainly interior Southeast Georgia, especially areas south of I-16 and west of I-95.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday: Possible chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning due to outflow from previous night's storms in the Ohio Valley. Some of the recent high res. guidance has been indicating that some convection could reach the region by ~15-16Z and then quickly weaken over the area as we head into the afternoon. Given the dry-air aloft and mid-lvl flow weakening throughout the day, the severe potential with these storms appears low. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows to dip into the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 70s near the coastline).

Sunday: A wavy stationary front might linger over the region throughout the day, as a MCS sourced from the Mid-Mississippi Valley tracks closer, reaching the Lowcountry by the afternoon (~18-19Z). There remains some uncertainty with this setup as it's largely dependent on the placement of the stationary front.
Recent runs of the NAM/ECMWF has kept the forecast rather dry, while the GFS has been indicating that some type of disturbance will possibly coincide with the afternoon seabreeze and allow convection to develop in the afternoon. With the temperatures relatively high and dewpoints in the low 70s, there just might be enough instability for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. By sunset, convection should track offshore and temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. Given the possible rainfall in the afternoon, patchy fog could develop overnight...however the forecast does not include fog at this time.

Monday: Upper-lvl ridging from the Gulf will govern the overall pattern on Monday, with heights gradually increasing throughout the day. With mostly sunny conditions, highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. A seabreeze will likely develop in the afternoon and advance inland, thus it wouldn't be a surprise to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop along with this.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Tuesday: The axis of the H5 ridge from the Gulf will continue to dominate most of the region on Tuesday and allow highs to reach into the low to mid 90s with upper 90s in SE Georgia.
These temperatures could definitely challenge the the record temperatures, see climate section below. With hot and dry conditions, thanks to the ridging aloft, any precipitation seems unlikely and kept the forecast dry. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday through Friday: A strong upper- lvl low situated over the Mid- west will continue to advance northeastward overhead, as an associated cold front sweeps through the region on Wednesday afternoon. With the support of a likely favorable environment in the afternoon, severe thunderstorms on Wednesday will definitely be possible. Some model guidance have already started to hint of the development of something severe, however uncertainty remains as this is still very far out in the forecast. Moving on Thursday and Friday, this aforementioned upper-lvl low will shift over New England and eventually off the coast by the end of the week. Due to the passage of the cold front, highs on Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler than previous days but will track just along normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
16/18z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through early afternoon Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Some brief flight restrictions could be possible on Sunday afternoon with the showers and thunderstorms.
Other than that, VFR conditions will persist.

MARINE
Tonight: Southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: Ahead of the outflow boundary from previous night's weather in the Ohio Valley, south- southwesterly winds could become a bit gusty on Saturday with gusts approaching 25 kts in the afternoon. However, this remains under Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Afterwards, Sunday through Tuesday, high pressure will dominate over the Atlantic waters and result in relatively calm southerly winds with an increase in winds each afternoon associated with the seabreeze.
Moving on to Wednesday, a strong cold front is expected to pass over the marine waters in the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may develop along this cold front and result in wind gusts well over 25 kts. Generally seas will be 2 to 3 ft, then 3 to 4 ft Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Wednesday, however holding off for now until more guidance comes in for this.

CLIMATE
The high temperature so far at KCHS is 94, which ties the daily record high for the date. The record has a good chance of being broken over the next few hours.

The high temperature so far at KSAV is 94. The record of 95 set in 1915 has a good chance of being broken over the next few hours.

The low temperature observed so far today at KCHS is 72. If this holds through 1 AM Saturday, this will establish a new record high minimum for the date. The previous record was 71 last set in 2018.

The observed low of 73 at KSAV and 75 at KCXM fell just shy of the daily records for those sites.

Record High Temperatures:

May 16: KCHS: 94/1941 KSAV: 95/1915

May 17: KCHS: 96/1963 KCXM: 94/1899 KSAV: 97/1899

May 18: KSAV: 97/1899

May 19: KSAV: 97/1996

May 20: KSAV: 96/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 17: KCHS: 74/1995 KCXM: 75/1998 KSAV: 74/1995

May 18: KCHS: 75/1995 KCXM: 77/1991 KSAV: 74/1899

May 19: KSAV: 74/1930

May 20: KCHS: 72/2022 KCXM: 76/2022 KSAV: 73/1896

May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KSAV: 74/2017

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.