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FXUS64 KFWD 041120 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 520 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: /Through Tuesday/

Only change to the discussion below was to go ahead and add in areas of frost for much of the area. This does not include the immediate urban portion of the DFW Metro.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /Early Week Period/

Quiet and seasonably cool early December weather is on tap for your early week period across North and Central Texas. A strong cold front just moved through the DFW/I-20 corridor this past hour and will move through Central Texas during the predawn hours before gusty northerly winds 15 to 20 mph settle down to around 10 mph through the remainder of the morning hours. After a brisk and cold start in the mid 30s to lower 40s, a surface high slides into the area. Winds will become light east or northeast during the afternoon hours with highs warming into the lower-mid 60s thanks to abundant sunshine across the region.

Very light southerly flow returns to most of the area tonight under clear skies, as our weak surface ridge shifts east of the area. With even drier air in place and strong radiational cooling expected, most locales will crash easily into the 30s outside of a few immediate urban areas within the DFW Metroplex. Can't rule out some frost, but for now I have left it out of the forecast.
Plentiful sunshine is expected once again Tuesday and despite a weaker, backdoor reinforcing cool front and brisk northerly winds returning, high temperatures should still recover into the 60s for all locations. Any additional low level cold advection will likely hold off until Tuesday evening and primarily across eastern portions of the area with a strong mid level disturbance dropping southward across the Mississippi River Valley.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 230 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/

Surface winds will lighten Tuesday night behind the cold front that moved through North and Central Texas during the day. With clear skies, expect another chilly night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s across much of the region, possibly approaching freezing near the Red River. East-northeasterly winds will linger longer into Wednesday across our east and an area of slightly stronger cold advection will develop late Tuesday night across the eastern half of the CWA allowing for slightly cooler afternoon highs on Wednesday, primarily east of I-35. By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will shift to the east beginning a period of warm/moist advection over North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees, surface dewpoints inching into the mid 50s to low 60s, and increasing cloud cover by the Thu-Fri timeframe.
Additionally, wind speeds could approach Wind Advisory criteria Thu-Fri as low pressure deepens in the Plains ahead of a shortwave trough expected to dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Southern Plains toward the end of the week. Southerly surface winds at 15-25 mph could gust to 30-35 mph at times Thursday and Friday.

Rain chances could return as soon as Friday night as a 40kt low- level jet rooted at ~850mb interacts with increasing low-level moisture, primarily across our far eastern zones. More widespread rain chances are expected over the weekend as the aforementioned trough and associated frontal system enter the Southern Plains.
Model guidance has trended toward a faster, more progressive system with nearly 70% of the most recent suite of ensembles (largely driven by the GEFS and CMC members) suggesting an early Saturday morning FROPA. The remaining ~30% of ensemble members continue to suggest that a Saturday evening/night FROPA will take place. We will keep the weekend PoPs at 20-40% generally along and east of the I-35 corridor where the plume of low-level moisture is expected to reside. The speed of this frontal passage, limited instability, and dry mid- to upper-level air aloft (keeping PWATs below 1.1-1.2") will likely keep rainfall amounts on the lower side, generally less than 0.25" through the weekend.

Behind FROPA much drier/cooler air will usher over the region, and depending on FROPA timing, noticeable drops in temperature could arrive Saturday (more likely) or be delayed until Sunday (less likely). Nonetheless, there is a high chance that afternoon high temperatures will struggle to rise above 60 degrees toward the end of this weekend into early next week behind this frontal passage.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Tranquil weather and VFR will prevail through 12z Tuesday thanks to dry northwest flow aloft and a post-FROPA environment. N winds 5 to 10 kts will become light S AoB 5 kts by/after 00z Tuesday.

After 12z Tuesday, look for winds to become W, then NW near 10 kts by 18z.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 39 66 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 63 36 68 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 59 36 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 62 33 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 61 36 65 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 62 40 66 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 61 37 64 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 40 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 64 37 69 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 36 68 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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