Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richland Hills, TX

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1245 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/ /Through Friday/

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms developed across southern Oklahoma this morning. This activity has generally remained north of the Red River, but it will continue to slowly move south this afternoon, entering North Texas near or just after 1 pm. Its outflow boundary is currently just south of the Red River in close proximity to a warm front. Any lingering inhibition is expected to erode very soon, with an axis of 3000-4000+ J/kg of CAPE setting up across North Texas. This amalgamation will result in additional storm development along the Red River over the next hour or two, continuing through the afternoon. Discrete supercells will initially be favored, but as we have already seen with this morning's activity, these storms will likely evolve into clusters of storms rather quickly as they move south/southeast through the afternoon and into the evening.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, with any discrete storms expected to have the highest hail threat.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing very large hail (>2"). Low level shear isn't particularly favorable for a tornado threat, but there will at least be a low potential for an isolated tornado across North Texas, especially for any storms that are able to react with any boundaries.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of North Texas.
However, expect an eventual expansion of this watch further west and south sometime this afternoon. Storm timing remains a bit uncertain as this morning's activity has not been resolved by hi- res guidance, but in a general sense, storms are expected in North Texas this afternoon through early evening, with any lingering storms or clusters of storms moving through Central Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Given the uncertainty in storm timing, it would be a good idea to start keeping an eye on the weather (if you haven't already) in the event these storms develop/arrive earlier than expected.

All storms should come to an end late tonight. Hot and humid weather is expected on Friday with high temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s and heat index values mostly in the mid to upper 90s.
While an unstable airmass will remain in place, a stout cap will keep a lid on any thunderstorm development throughout the day.

Barnes

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/

Warm and humid weather will continue into the first half of Memorial Day weekend, with highs in the 90s. Quite a few locations will see heat index values top 100 degrees, but fortunately, we'll remain comfortably below Heat Advisory criteria. Rain-free weather will prevail, but there is a low (20% chance) a complex of storms to our north will clip areas near and immediately along the Red River Saturday night.

Chances for showers and storms will return on Sunday as a cold front approaches the area and will continue into Monday. Deep layer shear won't be particularly favorable for organized severe storms, but we can't entirely rule out a few strong to severe storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds. An increased threat for flooding will likely be the main threat with these rounds of storms, especially Sunday night into Monday morning.
Ensure you monitor the forecast over the next few days for the latest information.

The front will move through the region on Monday but will likely stall somewhere across the forecast area. This will set the stage for daily chances for showers and storms throughout the week as a series of upper level disturbances move overhead. Cooler temperatures are expected for much of next week, with high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on a daily basis.

Barnes

AVIATION
/Issued 1245 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/ /18Z TAFs/

Storms near the Red River will continue moving south this afternoon, with additional development expected across much of North Texas. This activity is expected to arrive in D10 airspace around 20-21Z, with -TSRA most likely at the TAF sites between 22-02Z. For KACT, VCTS timing will be a bit later and is currently advertised from 04-07Z. There is still a bit of uncertainty with this timing and whether any storms will impact the terminal directly. However, we will continue to assess this potential through the afternoon.

We'll also have to monitor the potential for an outflow boundary to bring a brief north/northeast wind shift. Have this advertised later this evening (overnight for KACT), but timing may need to be adjusted if any of the activity this afternoon produces an outflow boundary earlier than anticipated. Otherwise, VFR and south to southeast winds will continue through the period with wind speeds between 10-15 knots or less.

Barnes

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Limited spotter activation may be requested in North Texas this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 91 74 93 75 / 50 5 10 0 5 Waco 71 92 72 94 74 / 40 0 0 0 5 Paris 65 86 71 88 73 / 10 10 20 5 5 Denton 64 90 71 93 72 / 40 10 10 0 10 McKinney 66 89 72 91 74 / 30 5 10 0 5 Dallas 70 92 74 93 76 / 40 5 10 0 5 Terrell 67 89 72 91 74 / 40 5 5 0 5 Corsicana 71 91 74 93 76 / 40 0 5 0 0 Temple 70 93 72 95 74 / 40 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 65 93 71 96 73 / 50 5 10 0 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ091>095-101>107.