Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Early morning showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across North Texas, along the leading edge of a northward surging moisture plume. The moisture plume is largely confined above 6,000 feet, keeping any thunderstorm activity elevated. With MUCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg, the potential for some small hail cannot be ruled out with this morning activity. However, severe storms are not anticipated. Later this morning, additional thunderstorm activity is expected across Central Texas as a shortwave emerges out of the northern Mexican Plateau. Similar to the ongoing thunderstorms, the activity across Central Texas is expected to remain elevated in nature. Mid-level cooling will likely lead to increasing instability, ranging from 1500-1800 J/kg. With effective shear between 40-50 kts, a few strong cannot be ruled out through the early afternoon hours along and south of I-20 through the early afternoon hours. The shortwave responsible for this mornings activity will quickly shift east of our region, leading to a temporary lull in precipitation chances around sunset today.

Heading into the evening and tonight, the likelihood of a line of storms moving in from the north has increased -- some of these storms could be strong to severe. The origin of this convective activity will be a cold front that is expected to stall across Central Oklahoma. Individual supercells will grow upscale and develop an MCS. Forward propagating vectors place this MCS along the Red River as early as 10pm. The greatest storm hazard will be straight line damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms, however, a few instances of hail cannot be ruled out.
This activity will progress southward overnight, however, an overall weakening trend is expected as it becomes farther removed from the large scale forcing for ascent.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A cut-off low will emerge out of northern Mexico Saturday morning, moving across Central Texas throughout the day. Ahead of the low, enhanced forcing for ascent will keep low storm chances confined to Central and East Texas. The passing shortwave will increase overall instability, however, weak deep-layer shear will keep the threat for severe weather at bay. Nonetheless, a few quick-hitting storms may temporarily disrupt any outdoor afternoon activities.

Longwave troughing across the Great Lakes will send a shortwave south out of the Rockies on Sunday. A trailing cold front will accompany this shortwave with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible across North and Central Texas. The front is now expected to approach our region by mid-afternoon, surging southward through the evening. MLCAPE ahead of the front will approach 3000 J/Kg with deep-layer shear between 30-40 kts. This will once again increase the threat for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. This front will progress southward, driving the severe weather risk south of our region early Monday morning.

Surface high pressure will settle in behind the cold front, delivering a precipitation-free period across North and Central Texas. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80.
This "cooler" weather will be short-lived as temperatures rebound to the 90s by the middle of next week as a mid and upper level ridge move overhead.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms is moving across northern portions of D10 this morning, gradually shifting to the east through the next few hours. A temporary lull in thunderstorm activity is expected before another cluster of scattered storms moves develops across North and Central Texas later this morning. Given the associated moisture remains elevated, VFR ceilings will persist.

Winds will be out of the south throughout this TAF cycle with winds generally below 10 kts. If the probability of thunderstorms impacting the TAF site increases, a brief period of TSRA may be introduced with gusty and erratic winds possible.

Storm chances will decrease this afternoon, leaving behind continued VFR skies.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening along and north of US-380. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 65 86 68 / 20 20 10 0 Waco 79 66 84 67 / 20 20 20 0 Paris 78 60 82 64 / 10 30 10 10 Denton 80 62 86 67 / 10 20 0 10 McKinney 80 63 85 66 / 20 20 10 10 Dallas 81 65 87 68 / 20 20 10 0 Terrell 79 63 84 66 / 20 30 10 0 Corsicana 81 67 86 68 / 20 30 20 0 Temple 80 67 85 67 / 20 20 30 0 Mineral Wells 81 61 86 65 / 10 20 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.