Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 6:32 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 252013 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 113 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ /This Afternoon through Friday Night/

A warm and humid airmass is in place across North and Central Texas this afternoon as evidenced by upper 60s and lower 70s dewpoints and increasing southerly winds. RAP objective analysis indicates around 2000 J/kg of instability in place across the region at this time with steep mid level lapse rates >8.5C/km. All of this potential instability is currently strongly capped and should remain that way through the afternoon. Outside of a few isolated showers beneath this strong capping through the rest of the afternoon, it should remain generally quiet. Gusty southerly winds will continue through the evening.

Later this evening, thunderstorms should increase in coverage well off to our west and northwest as an initial shortwave ejects out of the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains. The bulk of the lift associated with this disturbance will pass off to our north, but thunderstorms should be able to maintain their intensity and push into our far western/northwestern counties after dark, tapping into a reservoir of generally undisturbed instability. Forecast soundings across the western portions of our CWA suggest that severe storms will gradually evolve into one or more linear segments with an increasing threat for damaging winds. Steep mid level lapse rates will also continue to support a large hail threat. This activity will approach the I-35 corridor by early Friday morning but will encounter increasing convective inhibition which should support a weakening trend. Depending on the strength of the early morning activity, this will have impacts on additional development through Friday afternoon. At this time, we think there will be a gradual uptick in coverage of scattered showers and storms by afternoon, mainly east of I-35. Given the persistent moist and unstable environment, any storms that develop through the afternoon could become severe with primarily a hail and damaging wind threat.

Activity should generally taper off Friday evening and night as we'll be in between passing upper level disturbances and the surface dryline will be retreating westward. Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected late Saturday into the remainder of the weekend.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Saturday Through Early Next Week/

There will be two potential rounds of severe weather over the weekend. The first of which will be more isolated through Saturday afternoon, with a second and more widespread round late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The atmosphere will be primed for all modes of severe weather through both rounds, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. There is a low chance for a few tornadoes, mainly for the second round of thunderstorms through Sunday morning. On top of that, there is a low chance for isolated instances of flash flooding, mainly along the Red River.

Increasing surface moisture ahead of a dry line and an approaching Pacific cold front will interact with what could be a largely untapped warm sector draped across North and Central Texas. The overall extent and coverage of convective activity through Saturday afternoon and evening will depend on the initial placement of the dry line that will be positioned off to our west.
This convection will likely remain quite isolated, only impacting our westernmost counties before weakening as they encounter a less favorable storm environment thanks to a capping inversion. Of course, the strength of the cap will be the big question when it comes to the extent and coverage of this first round of thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with these storms, with a low chance for an isolated tornado or two through late Saturday afternoon and evening.

The second round of thunderstorms will start as the Pacific cold front finally catches up to the dry line and begins its journey east through our region. Convection will fire off along this boundary as it moves through North and Central Texas, bringing along with it the potential for severe weather. It's likely that convection will start off more discrete before quickly up-scaling into a linear system of storms. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this moves through late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Storm mode will partially dictate the probability of each hazard as the storms evolve over time, and will certainly be worth monitoring as higher resolution guidance continues to come in. The overall timing for this will depend on how quickly these storms push through. Given the overall setup, it's possible this line of storms will take all of Sunday to push through our entire forecast area. This will increase our flash flooding potential across portions of East Texas and will be worth watching.

On top of these storm chances, the weekend will be quite breezy as ambient winds approach 20 to 30 mph. Gusts upwards of 40 to 45 mph will also be possible on Saturday, which will potentially exacerbate our severe weather potential. A Wind Advisory will likely be necessary for our entire forecast area on Saturday.

An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue through the start of next week, with a temporary break from storm chances before our next system begins working it's way into our region toward the end of next week. Continue to check back for updates to the forecast regarding our severe weather potential over the weekend and regarding our next storm chances later next week.

Reeves

AVIATION
/Issued 113 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Warm and humid conditions can be expected through the period with increasing storm chances early Friday morning. Widespread MVFR cigs will prevail through much of the afternoon before lifting later today. Additional MVFR cigs are expected tonight and will persist into Friday morning. Thunderstorms will develop off to the northwest this evening and approach the D10 airspace late tonight.
We'll have VCTS in by 11Z with a TEMPO TSRA from 12Z to 14Z on Friday. Thunderstorm chances should taper off Friday evening and night with additional storm chances Saturday night and Sunday.

Dunn


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 80 70 83 68 / 50 80 10 50 70 Waco 70 79 70 83 68 / 20 60 10 30 50 Paris 68 76 68 82 68 / 40 90 20 50 60 Denton 67 81 68 81 65 / 80 80 10 60 80 McKinney 68 79 69 82 68 / 50 90 20 50 70 Dallas 69 80 70 83 68 / 50 90 20 50 70 Terrell 69 77 69 83 68 / 20 70 20 40 60 Corsicana 71 80 70 85 70 / 5 80 20 20 40 Temple 70 79 70 83 68 / 10 60 10 20 50 Mineral Wells 67 86 68 81 63 / 90 50 5 60 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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