Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valley, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 7:42PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 7:15 AM CDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:49AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valley, AL
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location: 32.78, -85.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 271055 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 555 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

UPDATE. For 12Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 350 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ Today through Thursday.

A partially cutoff closed upper low is spinning over the ArkLaTex region with a large area of enhanced cyclonic flow aloft encircling it. Meanwhile an amplified blocking ridge is located over the western Atlantic northward to New England. At the surface a broad area of low pressure is located over the Central CONUS along with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Another area of low pressure is located off the Southeast Atlantic coast, while a wedge of high pressure extends from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to Central Alabama. A few patches of light rain and drizzle are ongoing across Central Alabama with continued weak isentropic lift through a moist air mass, while two lines of showers and storms are located over the ArkLaMiss. Expect increasing coverage of rain showers across our northern counties through the morning hours as low-level lift strengthens.

A shortwave and mid-level speed max will round the base of the wobbling upper low today. Forcing associated with this feature as well as height falls and plentiful moisture and instability will result in showers and thunderstorms increasing across eastern Mississippi and West Alabama by midday. CAMs are generally on board with upscale growth into a squall line lifting northeastward through the area this afternoon and evening. Will note that the current line of storms over Central Mississippi was not really indicated by any of the guidance, so it's unclear what role this feature will play in the forecast for later today. MLCAPE will be around 1500 J/kg with around 30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. This will be enough to support gusty winds with the line of storms as well as the potential for isolated damaging winds. This threat is conditional on the low clouds associated with the wedge eroding enough to get enough heating, and also on the line of storms not out-running the instability axis as well as the mid-level dry slot and associated DCAPE. Therefore, will stick with a marginal risk of severe storms. The threat does become even more conditional in our northeast counties due to the lingering stability from the wedge, but will include the entire area for now as the line may be organized enough to counteract this somewhat. A lull in precipitation will probably occur behind the line, but expect additional development of showers and isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours especially over the eastern counties due to continued isentropic lift ahead of the upper low.

The upper low will drift eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley, fill slightly, and become more of an open wave on Thursday in response to a northern stream shortwave over the Upper Midwest. Several spokes of vorticity will continue to rotate around the low. A mid-level dry slot and southwest surface winds will allow more in the way of daytime heating and associated instability. While the mid- level dry slot could enhanced convective downdrafts, it may also limit coverage of storms/longevity of stronger updrafts. But still expect at least scattered convection. With 0-6km bulk shear increasing to around 40 kts, there will be another conditional risk of an isolated severe storm or two. Will continue with a marginal risk of severe storms in the HWO, and will add in a mention of hail due to a more cellular convective mode and possible supercell structures (though low-level shear will be non-existent).

32/Davis

LONG TERM. /Updated at 350 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ Thursday night through Tuesday.

During Thursday evening, there will still be some potential for strong to severe storms. However, the upper low will by that time be a weakening trough as it is absorbed into the main upper system over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Ontario. Any storms may be enhanced by a lingering upper jet, but this too will be making it's way to the northeast generally along the east side of the trough as it exits.

We will continue to have elevated pops for Friday (best across the east part of Central Alabama) as the trough continues to weaken and exit to the northeast. At the same time, upper ridging will be building across Western Conus. This will set up northwest upper flow across the Central U.S. on Friday and into Alabama on Saturday. As a result, a surface front should work across Conus and into Central Alabama on Saturday. Isolated to scattered storms are possible along and ahead of the front, but coverage should be less than much of this week so far.

Drier air and clearing skies are expected behind the front thanks to a 1024mb ridge that will build over the Upper Plains, Great Lakes, and into the Mississippi River Valley by early Sunday. We should see cooler overnight readings with lower dew points. Readings should still warm sufficiently during the day into the 80s during the days for Sunday through the beginning of next week. However, humidity values will be lower. The ridge will move east- southeast across Eastern Conus for the first part of next week toward the Atlantic Seaboard by Tuesday allowing for a rain-free Sunday through Tuesday to end our forecast.

08

AVIATION. 12Z TAF Discussion.

A wedge is resulting in MVFR to IFR cigs this morning. Ceilings should be slow to improve but should eventually reach VFR by mid- afternoon as the wedge erodes. Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching upper low will continue to produce showers this morning, with thunderstorms expected by afternoon. A line or broken line of showers and storms is expected to move through during the afternoon and evening. Continued moist isentropic lift will result in additional showers/isolated thunderstorms and low clouds overnight.

32/Davis

FIRE WEATHER.

Moisture remains elevated through much of the week with higher chances of wetting rains including thunderstorms through Friday. Some storms may be strong today and again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 50 percent through Friday. On Saturday, a surface front may bring a few showers and storms but then some drier weather and lower humidity values for the second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 76 65 83 62 84 / 80 80 40 30 50 Anniston 77 66 84 64 85 / 80 80 40 30 50 Birmingham 78 66 84 66 85 / 90 60 40 40 50 Tuscaloosa 79 66 85 64 85 / 90 50 40 30 40 Calera 78 66 84 64 85 / 90 60 40 30 50 Auburn 77 67 83 65 83 / 60 80 40 30 60 Montgomery 81 68 87 66 86 / 80 60 30 30 50 Troy 81 68 87 66 85 / 60 60 40 30 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Auburn-Opelika Airport, AL17 mi19 minE 73.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F96%1017.4 hPa
LaGrange-Callaway Airport, GA17 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F66°F95%1015.9 hPa
Columbus, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, GA22 mi24 minE 73.00 miFog/Mist70°F66°F90%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAUO

Wind History from AUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E12
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E9NE6E8E8E8E8--E5E5E7E6E8E9E5E8E5E7
1 day agoSE6SE5E10--E10E11E7
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2 days agoE4E5E5E3S7SE8SE8E7N8E9NE10E7SE3E5E5E5E7NE7E6E9E85--E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.