Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 3:39 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 180112 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 812 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Tonight.

A more zonal flow aloft will develop over the area as more shortwave disturbances move east over the area while mid-level ridging becomes more confined over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico while the potent upper low moves northeast over Northern Michigan. Surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast while another surface low deepens over Kansas with the stalled cold front draped from that low east across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley Region and across the Eastern Ohio River Valley.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy north and west and partly cloudy southeast. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be focused generally along the Interstate 20 corridor, affecting the north-central portion of the forecast area with lower chances elsewhere. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

Thursday.

Weak longwave ridging will temporarily rebuild over the eastern portion of the area early Thursday afternoon while a shortwave disturbance moves east over Eastern Oklahoma and Texas and will approach the area later in the evening. Surface low pressure will move northeast to near the St. Louis, MO area toward midday with a cold front extending southwest from the low to near the Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX metro area while surface high pressure remains well to our southeast.

Skies will range from partly cloudy northeast to mostly cloudy south and west with isolated showers through the morning hours followed by isolated showers and a few thunderstorms by midday through early afternoon. Chances for showers and storms are expected to increase toward the evening with the approaching shortwave where showers and storms may organize into a convective complex to our northwest and move into the area during the night.
Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s areawide.

05

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Some of the CAMS are showing a MCS developing near the Missouri Bootheel Thursday evening and tracking southeast. The remnants of the MCS will likely impact north Alabama after midnight, and increased rain chances for areas north of I-20. Expect the MCS to be in a weakening state as it moves into north Alabama, and will not highlight any severe threat at this time. This outflow will leave a boundary across north Alabama on Friday. A cold front will move into northwest Alabama Friday morning. It is unclear which boundary will be the focus for diurnal convection, but there is enough potential instability for some stronger storms Friday afternoon, mainly along and north of I-20. A lull in the activity Friday night and into Saturday morning, but the cold front will continue to push southward and end up across far south Alabama Saturday morning. Upper level forcing will increase along the I-20 corridor on Saturday as a short wave trough over the southwest United States ejects eastward. Expect scattered showers and isolated storms to increase north of the stationary cold front on Saturday, with more widespread rain Saturday night and Sunday. The low levels of the atmosphere north of I-85 will be rather stable Saturday night and Sunday, with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 50s northwest to upper 60s near I-85. Removed mention of thunderstorms for areas north of I-85. The rain will exit east Alabama Sunday evening with rain free conditions Monday and Tuesday.

58/rose

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

A few convective boundaries have moved down from the north and northwest. This has allowed some showers and thunderstorms to develop near these boundaries. The coverage and strength of the convection will diminish this evening. Therefore, have mention of VCSH this evening. Thereafter, VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR with potential LIFR south. The timing will be watched as some earlier arrival may occur and potential for lower ceilings and vis is also on the table. Ceilings slowly rise by 17z or so to VFR. Then the mention of thunderstorms is introduced after 18z north. Winds will be light and variable overnight and becomes south southwest 5-10kts on Thursday.

75

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into the evening hours across north Alabama. Max RH values overnight will be near 100 percent. Much of the area will remain dry on Thursday with increasing rain chances late Thursday night for areas north of I-20. Min RH values 45-55% on Thursday. 20 foot winds should be light and variable tonight becoming south 5-7 mph by Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 59 86 61 80 / 50 30 50 50 Anniston 60 86 63 81 / 50 30 40 40 Birmingham 63 85 65 81 / 50 30 40 40 Tuscaloosa 65 85 65 81 / 50 30 30 30 Calera 63 85 65 81 / 50 30 30 40 Auburn 63 84 65 82 / 10 20 10 20 Montgomery 64 85 64 85 / 0 20 10 20 Troy 62 85 64 86 / 0 10 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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