Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valley, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:38PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:54 AM CST (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valley, AL
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location: 32.78, -85.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 161226 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 626 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE. For 12Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 336 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ Today through Tuesday.

Severe storms are likely across all of Central Alabama late this afternoon and tonight, with the relatively highest risk west of I- 65. Southerly low-level flow and associated moisture return/isentropic lift has produced widespread low stratus across Central Alabama this morning. A few light showers are possible as well. Dew points are in the low 60s across West Alabama, with some mid 60s along the Alabama Gulf Coast, suggesting greater moisture quality later today compared to previous systems. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary extends southwestward from northern TN to a weak surface low in central Texas. A band of showers and thunderstorms is currently located along the cool side of the front. A strengthening LLJ should cause enough mixing for some breaks in the clouds to develop today, allowing highs to reach the 70s in most areas.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will push eastward from the High Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest today, while interacting with some northern stream waves near and north of the Canadian border. While CVA with this feature will remain well northwest of the forecast area, it will result in height falls and upper-level divergence with mid-level west-southwesterly flow strengthening to around 60 kts. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will lift northeastward across northern MS and northwest AL into middle TN, causing a cold front to move through tonight and tomorrow morning, preceded by a 45- 50kt LLJ. Supercells will initiate over the ArkLaMiss along and ahead of the front this afternoon, and around 50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear oriented around 45 degrees relative to the slow-moving front will allow them to stay ahead of the front. This shear vector orientation will help keep the line semi-broken, and the modest synoptic forcing will probably also be another factor that prevents large-scale upscale growth into a large-scale QLCS. Instead, mixed storm modes of supercells and line segments are expected. HREF members are in fairly good agreement on a broken line of storms moving into West Alabama during the late afternoon/early evening hours, with indications of a few semi-discrete supercells ahead of the broken line.

Of particular concern with this event is the stout elevated mixed layer (EML) indicated on upstream soundings with 700-500mb lapse rates of 7-8C/km. This certainly indicates favorable conditions for hail, and also results in surface temperatures of only 68-72F producing SBCAPE values of 700-1200 J/kg due to cool temperatures aloft, which is decent for mid-December. Thus the loss of daytime heating prior to the main timing of the event will not be too much of a factor. The enhanced risk has been expanded a bit further to the northeast where the best instability will be, generally along and west of I-65 and along and south of I-22. Damaging winds will be possible with any bowing segments, but given the shear vector orientation favoring at least embedded supercells, SRH of 200-350 m2/s2, large/curved low-level hodographs, and critical angles near 70 degrees, tornadoes will likely be the main concern. Hail will also be a threat with supercell updraft cores.

Storm interactions within the messy storm mode will likely make or break this event. Some mid-level backing/hodograph weaknesses may also promote messy storm modes. Warm air at the base of the strong EML and associated capping is also another possible limiting factor. A strong tornado or two would be possible with any sustained supercells that can avoid interference from other storms, but given the uncertainty will not explicitly mention this potential at this time. All in all, everyone in Central Alabama needs to remain weather aware and be ready to enact their severe weather plan tonight. Another thing to note is that that forcing along the front is slower across the southern counties, and there could be a relative lull around midnight before another surge in activity after midnight across the south-central/southeastern counties, which would allow an increase in instability ahead of the line. Will have to monitor trends for any possible expansion of the enhanced risk eastward across the southern counties. Some minor tweaks to the timing were made to account for this potential, and extended the end time to 7AM Tuesday as the severe threat may not be clear of Barbour/Russell Counties by 6AM. Overall rainfall amounts look manageable with activity remaining progressive, but some minor flooding of poor drainage areas is possible.

Rain will linger Tuesday morning across the southeast half of the area, before exiting by afternoon. Cold air advection and post- frontal stratus will result in fairly chilly conditions Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

32/Davis

LONG TERM. /Updated at 336 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ Tuesday night through Sunday.

Cool and dry conditions are expected Tuesday night through Thursday night due to east coast troughing and a deep upper low sinking into the northeast CONUS. A 1032 mb high across much of the eastern CONUS will maintain northerly winds. Most areas will be near or below freezing Tuesday night and Thursday night with most areas in the 20s Wednesday night. The next trough moves in on Friday with some spread in the guidance regarding whether an upper low will close off in the southern stream. Either way, moisture return looks limited, and will just maintain small chances of showers Friday night through Sunday for now. Ridging builds into much of the central/eastern CONUS by the end of the period.

32/Davis

AVIATION. 12Z TAF Discussion.

This AM we have low cigs/drizzle/light rain showers for most except MGM/TOI where a few light showers are possible but conditions remain VFR. Cigs should slowly improve during the day ahead of our main area of convection which will arrive during the overnight hours for most except for TCL which could see TSRA as early as 21z. Some strong to severe TSRA are possible with storms along the front. Outside of storms gradient winds will be elevated at times and gusty by afternoon. Lower cigs (at least MVFR and some IFR) and reduced visibilities are possible with the storms along the front.

08

FIRE WEATHER.

Widespread low clouds continue this morning. Rain and storms are forecast this afternoon through early Tuesday, some of which may be severe. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday, easing overnight. Rain free weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, with the next system bringing increased cloudiness for Friday and a chance of showers by Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 69 44 53 28 46 / 40 100 30 0 0 Anniston 69 47 54 29 48 / 40 100 50 0 0 Birmingham 70 43 52 30 48 / 50 100 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 74 43 51 29 50 / 70 100 10 0 0 Calera 71 45 53 30 48 / 40 100 20 0 0 Auburn 69 54 58 32 48 / 20 100 80 0 0 Montgomery 74 51 58 32 51 / 30 100 50 0 0 Troy 73 54 61 33 50 / 20 100 70 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.



32/08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Auburn-Opelika Airport, AL17 mi59 minSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F51°F87%1023.2 hPa
LaGrange-Callaway Airport, GA17 mi80 minS 410.00 miOvercast57°F46°F68%1020.3 hPa
Columbus, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, GA22 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAUO

Wind History from AUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmCalmE33CalmS4S6SE6SE6SE4SE7SE7SE6SE6S9S8S6S7SE9S7SE7SE5SE4
1 day agoNW7W5W8NW7W10
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2 days agoNE7NE8E10E6E8E93NE3NE4CalmCalmCalm--N5CalmSE3NW5NW4NW5W4W4W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.