Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valley, AL

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 4:37PM Friday November 27, 2020 10:51 PM CST (04:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 4:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valley, AL
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location: 32.78, -85.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 280147 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 747 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

UPDATE. Evening Update.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0745 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

A low-amplitude perturbation continues to advance eastward across the Gulf Coast States with clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms stretched across most of Central AL at this time. Thunderstorms have favored the south near the weak surface low where MUCAPE <750 J/kg and ~40 kts 0-6 km shear are in place per mesoanalysis. Winds remain light and variable, though should become more northerly behind the system gradually exiting the area to our east and south. This should begin to promote cool/dry advection in the north and northwest into tomorrow. Until then I've tweaked PoPs and temperatures in the near-term to account for observational trends. Generally speaking, PoPs were increased as a fairly large area of light rain remains in place across Alabama and into the TN Valley. Rainfall amounts outside of convection remains quite light. Trends indicate the departure of quality moisture and overall forcing such that decreasing rainfall intensity/coverage is forecast southeastward into tomorrow morning where only mentionable PoPs are along and south of I-85 through ~18z.

40/Sizemore

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0210 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

Saturday night through Thursday.

A fast moving short wave trof will move out of the four corners region and track eastward towards Alabama Saturday night and Sunday. Saturday evening will be rain free across Central Alabama, with showers moving into the southwest counties between 3 and 6 AM Sunday. Strong forcing aloft will produce widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day Sunday. Strong low level southerly flow on Sunday will advect 60+ surface dewpoints northward into areas south of I-85. 0-6km bulk shear is high enough for organized storms. There may be narrow window of time where instability may be high enough for stronger storms, but clouds and rain during the day Sunday will likely limit instability. The coldest air mass of the season will overspread Alabama Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures on Monday will stay steady or fall through the 40s. Lows in the 20s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Another upper impulse will bring a chance of showers during the day Thursday.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 405 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/ Saturday night through Wednesday.

A split jet stream pattern will feature a closed upper low across the Southern Plains and a shortwave diving southward toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. The closed low to our west will become an open wave, taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it interacts with the northern wave on Sunday morning. This will promote a deepening surface low over Alabama. An abundance of large-scale ascent and isentropic lift will overspread our region, leading to widespread rain and perhaps some thunder for the latter half of Sunday morning through early Sunday night.

A dry slot is expected to rapidly put an end to the rain by midnight Sunday night as a deepening area of low pressure moving toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Significant height falls and strong cold advection will take place Sunday night into Monday night as the northern shortwave absorbs the southern shortwave. Much of our forecast area is expected to remain in the 40s Monday afternoon with brisk northwest winds of 10-15 mph. The first widespread significant freeze will occur Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the lower 20s in our northwest to the upper 20s in our southeast. Temperatures will only rise into the 40s Tuesday afternoon as cold northwest flow continues. Temperatures should moderate for Wednesday as deep-layer westerly flow develops.

AVIATION. 00Z TAF Discussion.

A disturbance is passing across Central AL currently and is responsible for clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Sfc observations paint a theme of MVFR weather, though SHRA/TSRA activity could bring periods of IFR conditions. For now, TSRA seems to only impact MGM/TOI through the next few hours. Lightning activity has dwindled farther north, so I've left out of TAFs (on the fence at EET). Northern terminals such as BHM/ASN/ANB could remain on the quieter side this evening with VFR/MVFR, but I've placed TEMPOs here for SHRA activity and MVFR the next few hours. This system will gradually move east overnight. A shift to light northerly winds is expected behind it but it will be mostly into tomorrow before we get out of the MVFR/IFR ceilings across the area as we clear from north to south. I suspect IFR ceilings will mostly impact MGM/TOI near the weak surface low tonight, but we'll monitor elsewhere.

40/Sizemore

FIRE WEATHER.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area tonight, mainly for areas along and south of I-20. The rain will be confined to areas along and south of I-85 on Saturday as a weak cold moves through the area. Another rain event on Sunday. Much colder and drier Monday through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 48 65 43 61 41 / 70 0 10 100 90 Anniston 52 66 48 64 43 / 70 0 10 100 90 Birmingham 52 65 50 63 42 / 70 0 20 100 70 Tuscaloosa 53 66 49 64 41 / 60 0 20 100 60 Calera 54 66 50 64 42 / 80 10 20 100 70 Auburn 58 68 54 62 46 / 90 20 10 100 80 Montgomery 59 70 56 68 46 / 90 20 20 100 70 Troy 61 69 57 67 47 / 90 40 20 100 70

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Auburn-Opelika Airport, AL17 mi55 minN 05.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F63°F100%1020.5 hPa
LaGrange-Callaway Airport, GA17 mi76 minN 010.00 miLight Rain58°F57°F97%1018.3 hPa
Columbus, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, GA22 mi60 minN 06.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist65°F62°F90%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAUO

Wind History from AUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6CalmCalmSE3S4W3S4S4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmNW3Calm
1 day agoS6S11
G16
S9S10S85W4CalmNW3N5S3S4S34SW8SW6W6SW5CalmSW3NW5NW3NW4NW4
2 days agoE5E7SE7E7SE7SE8SE8SE7SE8SE7S10S10
G17
S12S16S14
G19
S9S9NW5S4SE8S7S9S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.