Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dallas, TX
March 29, 2024 6:14 AM CDT (11:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM Moonset 8:29 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 291056 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 556 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
New Aviation, Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Winds have gradually increased in speed overnight, and will continue this trend over the rest of this morning and afternoon.
Wind Advisory criteria (written in discussion below) may be met in spots across NW North Texas and western Central Texas, but looks more isolated/sporadic. Have foregone a Wind Advisory issuance for this forecast package once more, but will continue to keep watch over this morning for any increasing model trends and higher wind speed observations.
No major changes were made to the forecast aside from including new NBM data and observations. Therefore, the short term discussion below is still valid.
Prater
Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Saturday Afternoon/
The warming trend will persist as upper level ridging continues to build across North and Central Texas over the first half of the weekend. Though subsident air atop the region will keep the forecast period quite tranquil, gusty winds will make their comeback later this morning.
A stout low-level jet has already set up across the region, as seen on FWS/GRK VAD Wind Profiles where wind speeds at 1-2 kft are up to 45-50 kts as of 12:30 AM. Any LLJ related gusts should stay separated from the surface through this morning due to a diurnal temperature inversion. However, later today sustained speeds and gusts are expected to climb for two reasons. The first is deepening lee-side low pressure to our northwest tightening the surface pressure gradient. The second is that once we get into the throes of daytime heating, those stout low-level winds will be able to mix down towards the surface. By this afternoon, sustained speeds near 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible.
As a reminder, our CWA Wind Advisory criteria is an average of 25 mph for at least 2 hours or more. While the current forecast butts up to this criteria, have held off on issuing a Wind Advisory with this package. We will continue to look at incoming guidance for the need of an advisory later this morning. Make sure to secure outdoor objects and take caution when driving high profile vehicles this morning and afternoon.
Otherwise, expect a warm day as southerly flow persists. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to around 80 under partly sunny skies.
Strong southerly winds will continue tomorrow night across the region. A deck of stratus will overspread North and Central Texas by Saturday morning, complements of increased moisture finally being dragged north from the southwest GOM. Morning temperatures will be even warmer thanks to the moisture and cloud cover, with lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s.
While stratus will begin to clear out as daytime heating ramps up, high-level cirrus will continue to stream across the region in the Subtropical Jet. In the face of the continued cloud cover, afternoon temperatures will still be able to peak in the mid 70s to mid 80s out west.
Prater
LONG TERM
/Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ /Saturday Night through Thursday/
An upper trough will amplify late Saturday across the western CONUS helping to keep a fairly deep surface low in place across southeast Colorado. This in turn will help maintain a tight pressure gradient through the Southern Plains resulting in continued breezy southerly winds. The persistent warm advection pattern will allow dewpoints to climb into the 60s by Sunday as a dryline sharpens across West Texas. Southwest flow between 925-850 mb will allow for a thermal ridge to expand eastward through the day Sunday and should send temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 across our western counties. Farther east, we'll contend with morning stratus that will gradually scatter out through the day.
While a dryline will impinge on our western counties by late in the day Sunday, modest capping should remain in place inhibiting any convective attempts.
By Monday, an initial shortwave should eject out of the base of the broader trough and into the Plains. While the trajectory of this disturbance will be off to our north, the atmosphere will become moderately unstable by late Monday afternoon with strong low level warm advection and an eastward advancing dryline helping to work against any remaining capping inversion. We should see thunderstorms develop by late afternoon into the evening hours across North Texas with some potential for severe weather, especially along and north of I-20. All rain/storm chances will end overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front spills south through the Plains and temperatures cool back into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon. The remainder of the forecast looks dry Tuesday through Thursday with a gradual warmup through the end of the week.
Latest Eclipse Cloud Cover Information:
- Global ensembles have trended a little more pessimistic compared to climatology with only around 40% of the members depicting favorable sky conditions (<25% cloud cover).
- The synoptic pattern still favors troughing to the west which will help maintain moist southerly flow in the low levels and a steady stream of Pacific moisture aloft. This suggests that morning stratus would be possible with a slow erosion through the day.
We're still 10 days out and forecast certainty is low at this range so we'll continue to refine this forecast over the coming days.
Dunn
AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/
MVFR cigs were able to creep up into North and Central Texas, bringing ACT and potentially the eastern D10 sites (DFW/GKY/DAL)
into MVFR temporarily. These cigs should quickly erode and move off by mid-morning.
Otherwise, expect increasingly gusty southerly winds with winds around 20G30KT in D10 and 15G25KT at ACT this afternoon. A slow decrease in speed is expected tonight, but should stay around 15 kts or so through tomorrow morning.
Better chances for more widespread MVFR cigs are possible at all TAF sites tomorrow morning, with MVFR cigs reaching ACT around 10Z and D10 around 12Z. VFR should return to the TAF sites by mid-late morning, with southerly winds around 10-15 kts persisting through the end of the period.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 60 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 61 78 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 56 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 76 57 80 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 58 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 78 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 75 58 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 60 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 59 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 57 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 556 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
New Aviation, Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Winds have gradually increased in speed overnight, and will continue this trend over the rest of this morning and afternoon.
Wind Advisory criteria (written in discussion below) may be met in spots across NW North Texas and western Central Texas, but looks more isolated/sporadic. Have foregone a Wind Advisory issuance for this forecast package once more, but will continue to keep watch over this morning for any increasing model trends and higher wind speed observations.
No major changes were made to the forecast aside from including new NBM data and observations. Therefore, the short term discussion below is still valid.
Prater
Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Saturday Afternoon/
The warming trend will persist as upper level ridging continues to build across North and Central Texas over the first half of the weekend. Though subsident air atop the region will keep the forecast period quite tranquil, gusty winds will make their comeback later this morning.
A stout low-level jet has already set up across the region, as seen on FWS/GRK VAD Wind Profiles where wind speeds at 1-2 kft are up to 45-50 kts as of 12:30 AM. Any LLJ related gusts should stay separated from the surface through this morning due to a diurnal temperature inversion. However, later today sustained speeds and gusts are expected to climb for two reasons. The first is deepening lee-side low pressure to our northwest tightening the surface pressure gradient. The second is that once we get into the throes of daytime heating, those stout low-level winds will be able to mix down towards the surface. By this afternoon, sustained speeds near 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible.
As a reminder, our CWA Wind Advisory criteria is an average of 25 mph for at least 2 hours or more. While the current forecast butts up to this criteria, have held off on issuing a Wind Advisory with this package. We will continue to look at incoming guidance for the need of an advisory later this morning. Make sure to secure outdoor objects and take caution when driving high profile vehicles this morning and afternoon.
Otherwise, expect a warm day as southerly flow persists. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to around 80 under partly sunny skies.
Strong southerly winds will continue tomorrow night across the region. A deck of stratus will overspread North and Central Texas by Saturday morning, complements of increased moisture finally being dragged north from the southwest GOM. Morning temperatures will be even warmer thanks to the moisture and cloud cover, with lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s.
While stratus will begin to clear out as daytime heating ramps up, high-level cirrus will continue to stream across the region in the Subtropical Jet. In the face of the continued cloud cover, afternoon temperatures will still be able to peak in the mid 70s to mid 80s out west.
Prater
LONG TERM
/Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ /Saturday Night through Thursday/
An upper trough will amplify late Saturday across the western CONUS helping to keep a fairly deep surface low in place across southeast Colorado. This in turn will help maintain a tight pressure gradient through the Southern Plains resulting in continued breezy southerly winds. The persistent warm advection pattern will allow dewpoints to climb into the 60s by Sunday as a dryline sharpens across West Texas. Southwest flow between 925-850 mb will allow for a thermal ridge to expand eastward through the day Sunday and should send temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 across our western counties. Farther east, we'll contend with morning stratus that will gradually scatter out through the day.
While a dryline will impinge on our western counties by late in the day Sunday, modest capping should remain in place inhibiting any convective attempts.
By Monday, an initial shortwave should eject out of the base of the broader trough and into the Plains. While the trajectory of this disturbance will be off to our north, the atmosphere will become moderately unstable by late Monday afternoon with strong low level warm advection and an eastward advancing dryline helping to work against any remaining capping inversion. We should see thunderstorms develop by late afternoon into the evening hours across North Texas with some potential for severe weather, especially along and north of I-20. All rain/storm chances will end overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front spills south through the Plains and temperatures cool back into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon. The remainder of the forecast looks dry Tuesday through Thursday with a gradual warmup through the end of the week.
Latest Eclipse Cloud Cover Information:
- Global ensembles have trended a little more pessimistic compared to climatology with only around 40% of the members depicting favorable sky conditions (<25% cloud cover).
- The synoptic pattern still favors troughing to the west which will help maintain moist southerly flow in the low levels and a steady stream of Pacific moisture aloft. This suggests that morning stratus would be possible with a slow erosion through the day.
We're still 10 days out and forecast certainty is low at this range so we'll continue to refine this forecast over the coming days.
Dunn
AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/
MVFR cigs were able to creep up into North and Central Texas, bringing ACT and potentially the eastern D10 sites (DFW/GKY/DAL)
into MVFR temporarily. These cigs should quickly erode and move off by mid-morning.
Otherwise, expect increasingly gusty southerly winds with winds around 20G30KT in D10 and 15G25KT at ACT this afternoon. A slow decrease in speed is expected tonight, but should stay around 15 kts or so through tomorrow morning.
Better chances for more widespread MVFR cigs are possible at all TAF sites tomorrow morning, with MVFR cigs reaching ACT around 10Z and D10 around 12Z. VFR should return to the TAF sites by mid-late morning, with southerly winds around 10-15 kts persisting through the end of the period.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 60 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 61 78 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 56 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 76 57 80 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 58 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 78 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 75 58 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 60 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 59 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 57 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDAL DALLAS LOVE FIELD,TX | 6 sm | 21 min | S 10G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 30.02 | |
KRBD DALLAS EXECUTIVE,TX | 9 sm | 21 min | S 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 30.02 | |
KADS ADDISON,TX | 13 sm | 27 min | S 11G19 | 13 sm | Clear | 59°F | 54°F | 82% | 30.03 | |
KHQZ MESQUITE METRO,TX | 13 sm | 19 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.04 | |
KLNC LANCASTER RGNL,TX | 15 sm | 19 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 30.05 | |
KDFW DALLASFORT WORTH INTL,TX | 16 sm | 21 min | S 15G23 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.99 | |
KGPM GRAND PRAIRIE MUNI,TX | 16 sm | 19 min | S 09G14 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 59°F | 54°F | 82% | 30.03 | |
KGKY ARLINGTON MUNI,TX | 19 sm | 21 min | SSE 15G19 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.01 | |
KJWY MIDWAY RGNL,TX | 24 sm | 19 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 30.07 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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