Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dallas, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/

An active split flow regime across the CONUS will bring a few more chances for thunderstorms across North Texas over the next 48 hours or so. The main driver of the upcoming convection will be a shortwave trough, which is currently located over the southern Rockies and will propagate east through the Four Corners region on Tuesday, and the Southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, the dryline which served as a focus for storm development this evening will be overtaken by a weak cold front tonight and Tuesday. The front's southward push is the result of a northern stream shortwave sweeping through the Midwest (responsible for the ongoing storms from the Great Lakes to Kansas). The front will lose its southward push Tuesday evening and stall near the northwest border of our County Warning Area, providing focus for convective development as a lead disturbance lifts northeast over the area.

Most of the Tuesday evening convection will be confined to areas near the front, placing most of Tuesday evening's storms along and north of a line from Paris to Breckenridge. Instability and deep layer shear will support severe storms at times, with damaging winds and large hail both possible. Training storms along the front will also produce a threat for flooding, and a Flood Watch will remain in effect for the Red River counties starting first thing Tuesday.

A brief lull in the convection may occur overnight Tuesday night as instability wanes, but showers and storms will redevelop during the day Wednesday as the southern Rockies upper trough advances east into the Texas Panhandle. Coverage of convection on Wednesday will be significantly higher than Tuesday due to the addition of synoptic scale ascent in advance of the upper trough. The best storm chances will be generally along and north of I-20 where the better lift and weaker cap will exist. The unstable and highly sheared environment will again support severe weather, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds will both be possible along with heavy rain. Surface-to-1km SRH approaching 200 m**2/s**2 will also support a few tornadoes. Convection will linger into the late evening hours across the east Texas counties, eventually shifting east of the region overnight Wednesday night as the trough lifts northeast through Oklahoma. The Flood Watch will likely be allowed to expire on time by 7 AM Thursday.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

By Tuesday night, additional storm development is expected to our west along a dryline and cold front as increased forcing for ascent begins to spread over the region. Elsewhere, models continue to hint at some WAA-induced showers and storms within the warm sector early Wednesday morning near and east of I-35, however the highest storm chances will remain confined to our northwestern zones during this time. This activity will initially be more discrete in nature, but will grow upscale into clusters and broken lines as it begins to shift east through the day thanks to near-parallel 0-6km flow. With any more discrete storms, all modes of severe weather will be possible. However, as this early activity grows upscale across our northwestern zones, the main threat will transition to damaging winds with secondary/tertiary threats of large hail and spin-up tornadoes respectively. The clusters/line will advance east across North Texas Wednesday morning as the dryline begins to impinge on our western counties.

Additional storm development is expected to occur during the afternoon hours as we reach peak heating and destabilize once again. Our upper level trough will swing through the Panhandles, spreading even greater ascent over North and Central Texas. This lift, coupled with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and ~45 KT of deep layer shear will promote the continued potential for severe storms over the afternoon. Storms will initiate off of the dryline as discrete cells, eventually growing upscale into clusters as they shift east. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, however any initial discrete storm in the afternoon and early evening will have an increased tornado threat.

The flood threat will increase as we head through midweek. The highest threat for flooding in the long term forecast period will be on Wednesday as multiple rounds of convection are expected to move overtop already saturated areas across North Texas. 72 hour rainfall totals between Tuesday and Friday show between 1.5-3" of accumulation across North Texas, with the higher end totals confined mainly to the northwest and northeastern counties. In isolated spots (10% of the area) near the Red River and our northwest, totals of up to 4-5" may occur. The current Flood Watch will remain in effect until Thursday morning. For those further south across Central Texas you can reasonably expect 0.50-1.00" of rainfall accumulation Tuesday-Friday. These rainfall totals are a bit more broad-brushed, and will likely become more refined over the next several days as higher- resolution guidance starts to get a hold of this time frame. As such, rainfall amounts for your specific location may increase or decrease as trends in storm track and rainfall become clearer.

The front will gradually move south through North and Central Texas late this week, continuing to serve as a focus for convective initiation each day into the weekend as multiple shortwave disturbances move overhead. Some storms could become strong to severe through the end of the week, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast for more details. Additional precipitation will occur next week out ahead of an incoming closed upper low, continuing the unsettled weather pattern as we go through the first few days of May.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

An MVFR cloud deck is expected to develop across South-Central Texas over the next few hours and spread north over all TAF sites overnight into Tuesday morning. Cigs should arrive at KACT around 09Z and the DFW Metroplex 10Z. MVFR will lift to VFR around midday Tuesday, giving way to another breezy afternoon with south winds of 15G25KT. Thunderstorms will most likely remain northwest of all TAF sites Tuesday evening where a stationary front will reside. Another MVFR deck will arrive Tuesday night, which has been added to the extended DFW TAF. Better storm chances will arrive on Wednesday beyond the current TAF period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not likely today, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 78 66 85 62 / 40 100 50 10 20 Waco 69 80 67 88 64 / 20 90 50 10 20 Paris 65 78 64 81 59 / 30 90 80 20 20 Denton 64 77 61 83 58 / 50 100 50 5 30 McKinney 66 77 64 83 59 / 40 100 60 10 20 Dallas 67 78 66 85 62 / 40 100 60 10 20 Terrell 66 80 66 84 61 / 30 90 70 10 20 Corsicana 68 82 69 87 64 / 20 90 60 20 20 Temple 69 84 68 91 64 / 10 80 50 10 20 Mineral Wells 66 80 60 85 59 / 60 90 30 5 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-100>102.