Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Heath, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A tranquil and mild night is underway as surface high pressure shifts east of the region. Winds have gone near calm, and efficient radiational cooling is already occurring. As of late evening, many areas have already dipped into the 40s, with some sheltered spots even falling into the upper 30s. Overnight lows have been adjusted toward the cooler end of guidance (NBM 25th percentile) to better capture current trends. By Thursday, southerly flow will be firmly reestablished, allowing temperatures to rebound quickly into the 70s areawide. The warming trend will occur beneath building upper ridging, with only thin high cloud cover drifting overhead. Increasing humidity will also keep fire weather concerns minimal.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Our next weather system arrives Friday into Saturday as a progressive upper trough sweeps across the Southern Plains. This feature is currently moving inland along the West Coast and will continue its eastward progression over the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, the same cold front that moved through North Texas earlier has since stalled along the Gulf Coast. As return flow ensues on Thursday, this boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north it gets will influence where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up Friday into Saturday.

Guidance continues to support a scenario where rain begins developing late Friday afternoon and into the evening, initially along the northwest fringes of the forecast area. Coverage and intensity will increase overnight as the upper trough and associated jet dynamics spread across the region. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday night through much of the day Saturday.

QPF Forecast: Rainfall totals through Saturday night are still expected to be beneficial across most of the area. The most likely range of accumulated rainfall is now between 0.5 to 1.5 inches with a 20-30% chance that localized totals exceed 2 inches, particularly across the southeast. This is supported by stronger moisture return and greater convective potential in that region. Overall, guidance has continued to focus higher rainfall totals across East Texas into Louisiana. This may be tied to the unfavorable timing of the cold front, which displaces the frontogenetic lift just east of our area around peak heating.

While some training of showers and storms may occur locally, the broader southwest flow aloft may steer most convection steadily eastward, reducing the potential for prolonged downpours across any one area. However, elevated rainfall rates could still produce localized flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas, and this potential will be monitored closely over the next 24-48 hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany this system, with the best overlap of instability and shear likely occurring Saturday afternoon ahead of the trailing cold front. That said, the cold front may arrive too late to fully capitalize on peak destabilization, keeping the threat for strong or severe storms marginal and conditional. If sufficient buoyancy does materialize, isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds or small hail cannot be ruled out, especially across Central and eastern North Texas.

Rain will taper off from west to east Saturday night into early Sunday. Temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler on Sunday, but remain seasonably mild with highs in the 60s and low 70s. By early next week, high pressure will become reestablished aloft brining back dry and warmer weather through at least Wednesday. Afternoon highs will climb back into the 70s and 80s.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear skies and light winds. Calm to light and variable flow overnight will transition to light southeast to south winds (around 5-7 kts) by mid to late morning.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 55 80 60 / 0 0 10 60 Waco 77 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 30 Paris 69 50 76 59 / 0 10 20 50 Denton 74 51 79 58 / 0 0 20 70 McKinney 73 52 79 60 / 0 0 20 60 Dallas 75 57 80 62 / 0 0 10 60 Terrell 74 52 79 60 / 0 0 10 40 Corsicana 77 57 82 62 / 0 0 10 30 Temple 80 55 79 60 / 0 0 0 30 Mineral Wells 80 52 82 58 / 0 0 10 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.