Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Heath, TX

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ /Through Saturday/

An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi- stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms heading into the weekend.

Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today, before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low- level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1 km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small- probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our CWA today appear rather slim.

Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It's slight northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+ dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from the shortwave's arrival should ignite greater coverage of convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly, but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the evening before diminishing overnight.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Sunday through Thursday/

Sunday through Monday Night

On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won't eject east of the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion.

On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline, abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather, particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet.
Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this will be determined by the progression of the upper-level disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the daytime hours.


Tuesday through Thursday

By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like the front should push east of our area before peak heating and the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless, there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours.

Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front, supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday.

Darrah

AVIATION
/Issued 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ /06z TAFs/

Winds are light and variable at the TAF sites as of 06z, but should return to southeasterly in the next few hours as a stalled frontal boundary pivots back to the northwest. This will also open the door for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion this morning, and these cigs should spread into Waco around or after 09z and into the Metroplex TAF sites closer to 12z. Lifting and scattering to VFR will occur by late morning, while winds veer increasingly southwesterly or westerly heading into the afternoon. Attention will then turn to convective chances, with initiation of isolated storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time.
Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light southeasterly winds resuming.

-Stalley

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 73 90 73 89 / 30 5 70 50 20 Waco 94 74 92 72 92 / 30 40 30 30 10 Paris 88 66 87 69 85 / 30 10 60 60 30 Denton 91 68 90 69 88 / 20 0 70 50 30 McKinney 90 70 89 71 87 / 30 5 70 60 20 Dallas 93 72 91 72 89 / 30 5 70 50 20 Terrell 91 71 89 72 89 / 40 20 60 50 20 Corsicana 92 74 92 74 92 / 30 40 40 40 10 Temple 95 73 94 72 94 / 10 30 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 93 68 92 70 91 / 20 0 60 40 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.