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FXUS64 KFWD 052319 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 519 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

Not much to add to previous discussion. Only change was to lower temps a degree or two for tonight near the MOS consensus to account for excellent radiational cooling parameters in place.

TR.92

Previous Discussion: /This afternoon through Wednesday night/

A reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air will filter into the region through the afternoon behind a weak cold front. The passage of the front will come through largely unnoticed outside of a north wind shift. The slight cold air advection behind the front will be offset by plenty of sun, allowing temperatures to warm into the 60s.

All the ingredients for optimal radiational cooling will be in place tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s in most locations. It does look like lows will stay above 32 degrees except for a few rural, low spots.

A building ridge aloft and the slow return of southerly winds on Wednesday will keep afternoon temps mild with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/ /Thursday through Tuesday/

Low level warm/moist air advection ahead of an approaching storm system the second half of the week will result in above normal temperatures, breezy south winds and higher humidity. Afternoon highs Thursday will range from the mid 60s in the east, where clouds will be most abundant, to the mid 70s in the west. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with generally 70s everywhere.
Some of the western zones could briefly reach 80 Friday afternoon.
Lows Thursday night/Friday morning will be mild for December with 50s region-wide.

Large scale forcing for ascent will steadily increase Friday night once the upper low digs into New Mexico and West Texas. The best moisture and upper level diffluence will be across Northeast and East Texas, resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The upper low will begin to lift into the Central Plains Saturday, allowing a cold front to sweep across North and Central Texas. The cold front will provide an additional source for lift for showers and storms. The timing of the front will be crucial in determining the severe weather threat since a morning FROPA across the east/southeast zones will limit the amount of destabilization that occurs and thus the potential for severe storms. Like many cold season convective events, shear will be ample so any warm sector storms that can develop will have some potential to become strong/severe. However, new model data continues to favor an earlier FROPA time so the severe threat will likely be well east of the forecast area.

Windy and much cooler weather will move in behind the front Saturday with temperatures likely holding steady or slowly falling through the afternoon. Highs Saturday will range from the middle 50s in the northwest to the upper 60s across the southeast.
The progged pressure gradient may push winds close to Wind Advisory criteria. The wildfire threat may also increase Saturday afternoon, especially across the western zones that see little if any measurable rainfall Friday night/Saturday morning. As of right now, the relative humidity and cooler temperatures should keep the threat from becoming critical or extreme. Wind speeds will stay up Saturday night, offsetting the cold air advection slightly and keeping lows above freezing, but still in the 30s. However, wind chills will be in the 20s for most locations.

Dry northwest to westerly flow aloft and limited moisture will keep the weather Sunday through Tuesday mostly clear with temperatures near seasonal normals.

79

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

VFR with light northerly winds behind today's weak front will prevail through daybreak. Thereafter the surface high will shift eastward allowing for light southerly flow near 5kt to return by mid to late morning. Otherwise clear skies tonight, but an increase in high clouds will occur Wednesday.

TR.92


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 63 45 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 38 63 43 68 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 36 58 39 64 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 34 62 42 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 35 60 41 67 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 41 62 45 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 37 60 40 66 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 40 63 43 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 37 65 42 69 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 36 65 43 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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