Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coppell, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Numerous showers associated with an approaching mid-level closed low will continue to move northeast across the region through the evening. While the mid-levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten up, the air below about 850 mb is still relative dry.
Therefore, precipitation this afternoon and much of the evening should be relatively light. We have seen a few lightning strikes this morning across portions of Central Texas and the Big Country and this will continue this afternoon but don't anticipate anything more than isolated rumbles of thunder since instability quite limited. A 25 knot southerly low level jet developing overnight will help to moisten the air below 850 mb. The increase in low level moisture over the cool ground will result in patchy fog and drizzle which will linger into Sunday morning. We anticipate seeing a final round of showers Sunday morning as the cut off low lifts to the Central Plains. Subsidence on the back side of the departing system will clear the precipitation and clouds from west to east in the afternoon. Conditions will be favorable for patchy fog to develop Sunday night with a wet ground, clear sky and relatively light wind.

Temperatures this afternoon will only warm a few degrees due to abundant cloud cover and not much low level warm air advection.
A cloudy sky and subtle warm air advection overnight will keep temperatures steady in the middle 40s. Sundays highs will be warmer due to the return of the sun in the late afternoon with 60s in mostly locations. The only exception will be the eastern zones where clouds will be the last to clear and highs will likely stay in the 50s. Radiational cooling will be tempered by weak warm air advection Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the 40s to the lower 50s.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 242 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

As precipitation moves farther east and away from the region along with the disturbance responsible for our weekend rain, a larger scale upper trough will be digging southeast from the Great Basin through the southern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis will take place over Northwest Texas as an attendant frontal system develops ahead of the upper trough. The resulting surface cyclone will slide southeast into western North Texas Sunday night, with a dryline extending south and a cold front extending west from the surface low. Clearing skies, recent rain, and moisture being drawn northward around the eastern flank of the low may lead to fog development for areas along and east of I-35 Sunday night/Monday morning. Some dense fog is possible, but still uncertain 48 hours in advance.

In either case, the surface low will continue sliding southeast as the upper trough digs through the Four Corners region, dissipating any fog by midday Monday. The aforementioned cold front will surge southeast through western North Texas Monday afternoon, and through the rest of the region Monday night, bringing dry, windy and much cooler air into the region for the midweek period. Highs in the 60s and 70s on Monday will drop to the 50s area-wide on Tuesday as the axis of the upper trough moves overhead. Red River counties may end up with highs in the 40s due to strong cold air advection behind the front. North winds may weaken slightly Tuesday night but should still remain in the 15 to 20 MPH range. This combined with temperatures falling into the 30s will create wind chills in the 20s area-wide Tuesday night- Wednesday morning.

The upper trough will swing east through the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday, beginning a slow warm-up for the second half of next week as a weak ridge develops in its wake. The cool, dry continental airmass in place will still allow temperatures to dip into the lower and middle 30s Wednesday night, but Thursday temperatures should have little trouble reaching the lower and middle 60s. The pattern will remain unsettled, however, with a shortwave trough entering the West Coast by Thursday. The resulting lee-side surface troughing will generate a fast uptick in return flow Thursday afternoon and evening. A warming trend will continue in advance of this next upper level system, with above-normal temperatures expected Friday and Saturday. The shortwave will move quickly east through the Southern Plains, bringing more rain chances sometime next weekend.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

The next 24 hours will be a bit messy with regards to aviation weather. Cloud bases continue to lower late this morning as light precipitation falls through the drier air below 850 mb. Some MVFR ceilings are already showing up, especially near the heavier precipitation. We expect all ceilings to fall below 3000 ft by mid afternoon but IFR is unlikely until early Sunday morning.
Ceilings are still progged to fall below 1000 ft towards sunrise Sunday with some models dropping them below 500 ft. For now we will keep running with 800 ft ceilings and allow later shifts assess the LIFR/VLIFR potential with new guidance.

Rain coverage is on the increase across the west currently and this area will gradually shift eastward through the afternoon.
Therefore, we will prevail showers at all TAF sites from 19Z until 02Z. Brief reductions to visibility will accompany the stronger showers. There have been some in-cloud lighting strikes this morning, but with limited instability we don't anticipate any impacts from thunderstorms at the TAF sites. Spotty light showers are expected this evening and overnight with a slightly better coverage towards sunrise when large scale lift associated with the lifting cut off low will be the strongest. Clouds will begin to lift across all terminals around midday but will not scatter/clear until closer to 21Z.

A south wind will prevail through Sunday afternoon at sustained speeds generally less than 10 knots.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 47 62 49 68 / 80 60 60 0 0 Waco 48 46 62 49 76 / 70 50 60 5 0 Paris 52 46 55 47 64 / 30 70 80 20 0 Denton 50 44 63 44 66 / 80 60 50 0 0 McKinney 52 45 60 47 68 / 70 60 60 5 0 Dallas 50 46 60 49 67 / 80 60 70 5 0 Terrell 50 46 60 49 70 / 70 70 80 10 0 Corsicana 48 47 62 52 75 / 70 60 80 10 0 Temple 47 46 66 49 79 / 60 40 50 5 0 Mineral Wells 48 44 68 44 68 / 80 40 30 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.