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FXUS64 KFWD 040537 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1137 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Early Week Period/

Quiet and seasonably cool early December weather is on tap for your early week period across North and Central Texas. A strong cold front just moved through the DFW/I-20 corridor this past hour and will move through Central Texas during the predawn hours before gusty northerly winds 15 to 20 mph settle down to around 10 mph through the remainder of the morning hours. After a brisk and cold start in the mid 30s to lower 40s, a surface high slides into the area. Winds will become light east or northeast during the afternoon hours with highs warming into the lower-mid 60s thanks to abundant sunshine across the region.

Very light southerly flow returns to most of the area tonight under clear skies, as our weak surface ridge shifts east of the area. With even drier air in place and strong radiational cooling expected, most locales will crash easily into the 30s outside of a few immediate urban areas within the DFW Metroplex. Can't rule out some frost, but for now I have left it out of the forecast.
Plentiful sunshine is expected once again Tuesday and despite a weaker, backdoor reinforcing cool front and brisk northerly winds returning, high temperatures should still recover into the 60s for all locations. Any additional low level cold advection will likely hold off until Tuesday evening and primarily across eastern portions of the area with a strong mid level disturbance dropping southward across the Mississippi River Valley.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 215 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023/ Update:

No significant changes necessary to the forecast trends discussed below. Dry NW flow aloft will persist until the axis of the western CONUS upper-level ridge shifts overhead late Wednesday into Thursday. Any cooling that occurs behind Tuesday's reinforcing cold front will be minor with anomalously warm temperatures forecast across the region Thursday and Friday. PoPs associated with next weekend's upper-level trough and the associated cold front remain capped at 20-40% with this update.
The two main takeaways from the latest model runs are: (1)
deterministic models are trending towards a more progressive/slightly quicker eastward progression though there continues to be a considerable amount of spread between the ensemble members and (2) thunderstorm development will now be possible Friday night northeast of the Metroplex into the Ark-La-Tex area along a developing low-level jet. The stronger instability (and potential for stronger storms) is currently confined to East TX and points to the northeast but this may change as timing issues are refined.

12

Previous Discussion: /Monday Night and Beyond/

A rain-free forecast will prevail through at least the middle of next week as a dry air mass remains anchored over North and Central Texas. A quick-moving shortwave trough will shift out of the Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday pushing an additional weak front into North Texas during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s across much of the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of slightly stronger cold advection slated to arrive later Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Expect widespread lows Tuesday night in the mid 30s to low 40s, possibly approaching freezing near the Red River, and slightly cooler afternoon highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 60s.

By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will shift off to the east and a warm/moist advective regime will re-establish across North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Expect increasing cloud cover, afternoon highs in the low to upper 70s, and surface dewpoints inching into the upper 50s to low 60s by Thu-Fri of next week. Rain chances look to return to the forecast area during the Saturday (Dec 9th)-Sunday (Dec 10th) time frame as the next storm system and associated cold front enter the Plains.
The placement of the weekend cold front currently varies across a roughly 24-hour time period amongst the most recent suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance with the faster solutions suggesting an early Saturday morning FROPA (~35% of EPS/GEFS/CMC members) and the slower solutions suggesting an early Sunday morning FROPA (~25% of EPS/GEFS/CMC members). With a good deal of uncertainty on the timing of this frontal boundary, we will keep PoPs at 20-40% across the area next weekend for now. A noticeable difference in temperatures is expected behind the coming weekend's frontal passage as well with a 70-80% chance that afternoon highs remain below 60 degrees into the early portions of the following week.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/

FROPA has now occurred at all D10 DFW airports as of 05z with VFR and SKC conditions to occur through the 24 hour forecast.

Gusty N winds 10-15 kts will become NW at below 10 kts by/after 09z. A surface high moves across the area later today with light SE winds 5-7 kts returning after 00z Tuesday (or Monday evening).

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 41 62 39 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 40 63 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 37 59 36 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 35 62 33 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 38 61 36 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 42 62 40 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 39 61 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 42 63 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 41 64 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 37 63 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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