Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

No major changes were made with the morning update other than to account for ongoing temperature/dew point trends. PoPs were also slightly adjusted to account for the latest guidance. Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a southward boundary late this afternoon through the evening, although there is a bit of uncertainty regarding exact timing should the boundary slow down.
Regardless, any storms that manage to develop through the late evening will be capable of large hail, and damaging winds.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday Night/

Quiet weather will continue across all of North and Central Texas through the night with overnight lows across North Texas in the low to mid 60s. Lows across Central Texas will be slightly warmer as these will coincide with returning moisture from the south as a warm front retreats back to the north through the early morning.

This moisture return will set the stage for the potential for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening. A shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will move across portions of the Oklahoma panhandle and southern Oklahoma before reaching the Red River through the mid to late morning.
There is a low chance for some isolated activity across the Red River through the morning hours but latest CAM guidance has pushed this activity off closer to the early afternoon. Regardless, expect the radar scope to begin to blossom through the day with increasing coverage as early as 1 PM to our north. This activity will gradually push south through the afternoon, where the atmosphere will be primed for scattered severe thunderstorms. The storm environment within the open warm sector will feature MUCAPE values around 2,500-3,500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km bulk shear between 30-50 knots. These conditions will be supportive of producing severe weather, where the main threat remains large hail with initial convection. Discrete, open sector storms will also pose a threat for damaging winds and a low but non-zero tornado threat. CAMs continue to suggest rapid upscale growth as storms congeal as they move south through North Texas.
This will shift our greatest threat from large hail to damaging winds as we move into the evening hours. The persistence and maintenance of this evolving cluster of thunderstorms will dictate how long into the evening these thunderstorms last, but we expect activity to begin dissipating through the late evening as storms move south into Central Texas.

Any and all convection will likely come to an end by midnight for the entire region. There is a low chance for additional convection across the Red River through the early morning hours on Friday but confidence in this scenario right now is a bit low.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/Issued 248 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/ /Friday Onward/

The frontal boundary responsible for igniting Thursday's thunderstorm activity will be drawn farther northwestward on Friday in response to strong lee cyclogenesis ahead of a deepening western CONUS trough. This will place North and Central Texas in a seasonably hot, humid, and unstable warm sector bounded by the frontal zone well to our north and a sharpening dryline far to our west. Despite strong instability, it is likely that our area locally will remain stoutly capped as large scale ascent also remains displaced to the northwest while southwesterly 700mb flow reinforces the EML. The dryline located in western North Texas and the Big Country could become active late Friday afternoon, with residual convection possibly encroaching on our northwestern zones later that evening prior to quickly dissipating. We'll carry <20% rain chances for our far northwestern zones during this time period. Additional convection, perhaps in the form of one or complexes, could traverse portions of southern Oklahoma overnight into Saturday, but most of this activity is also expected to remain removed from the CWA One factor worth watching will be if any of this convection could send an outflow boundary southward into North Texas to aid with initiation later in the day, but this small-scale low-probability scenario will remain unknown until within the day one forecast period. Otherwise, expect seasonably hot and humid weather to begin the holiday weekend with highs in the 90s and heat index values approaching 100F.

On Sunday, the aforementioned frontal zone will be driven back southward as a cold front as the upper trough makes further eastward progress into the Central Plains. Its arrival in North Texas should be accompanied by fairly widespread convection given the amply moist and unstable buoyant sector ahead of it. While shear will be rather modest at 20-30 kts, strong instability could certainly support isolated severe hail/wind threats during the evening and overnight hours. In addition, a roughly west/east orientation of the boundary as well as west-east flow could result in cell training and perhaps an increased flash flooding threat Sunday night into early Monday morning. Precisely where this swath of heavier rain could fall is still uncertain, but a narrow corridor of as much as 3-5" rain amounts is certainly plausible. Thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall could continue into the daytime Monday before steadily tapering off by the afternoon or evening as the slow-moving frontal zone finally pushes south. Those with outdoor activities/events planned for Memorial Day weekend will want to keep abreast of the forecast, especially for the Sunday evening through Monday time window.

The cooler post-frontal airmass along with cloudy skies will hold temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday, and below normal temperatures can actually be expected through most of next week. Low rain chances will linger from Tuesday through Thursday, although these rain chances will be much lower than with the preceding frontal passage, and many areas could remain dry through the midweek period.

-Stalley

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Concerns.. MVFR/IFR ceilings, VCTS/TSRA this afternoon/evening.

A narrow corridor of low MVFR has developed and will be moving over the D10 terminals within the next couple hours. The duration of which will depend on how much these lower ceilings fill in, with more widespread MVFR and IFR remaining further south. These will continue to move up through the early to mid morning before scattering out just before noon today. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact timing of VCTS/TSRA through the afternoon and evening, and have opted to push everything regarding convection back an hour. Exact timing will need to be closely monitored through the day. A brief window of northerly winds may follow any southward moving convection through the overnight period with southerly flow returning tomorrow.

Reeves

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Limited spotter activation may be requested in North Texas this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 69 90 74 93 / 50 40 5 10 0 Waco 93 70 91 72 94 / 5 20 0 0 0 Paris 84 64 83 71 88 / 50 20 10 20 5 Denton 91 64 88 71 93 / 50 40 10 10 0 McKinney 88 65 87 72 91 / 50 40 10 10 0 Dallas 92 69 90 74 93 / 40 30 5 10 0 Terrell 89 66 89 72 91 / 30 30 5 5 0 Corsicana 92 70 92 74 93 / 5 20 0 5 0 Temple 95 70 93 72 95 / 5 20 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 95 65 91 71 96 / 50 30 5 10 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.