Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
(Through Friday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An unsettled weather pattern remains in place across the region with a few more rounds of showers and storms as we wrap up the week. We're still monitoring the potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain tomorrow afternoon through Friday night.

For the rest of today, surface analysis show a warm front just north of the Red River with a dryline well to our west in West Texas (near the NM/TX border). In the mid-upper levels, a positively tilted trough remains over the western U.S. keeping the southwesterly flow and broad ascent over much of the southern Plains. Breezy southerly winds in the lower levels will help support WAA showers and isolated storms later this afternoon and evening, particularly near the Red River. Additional storms may try to sneak into our western counties tonight but the overall thinking is that they will weaken/dissipate as they approach our region. The rest of the night should be dry, but the breezy southerly winds will persist through tomorrow along with the return of low clouds.

As the upper trough begins to eject to the northeast tomorrow, the surface low/cold front will shift eastward toward the TX/OK Panhandle. The progression of the surface feature will be fairly slow during the day but we will likely see another round of warm advection showers and isolated storms ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. The severe weather risk for our area hasn't changed much from the previous forecasts with the greatest risk generally along and north of I-20 towards the northeast. Latest guidance continues to show favorable low-level and deep layer shear profiles with sufficient instability in place. Forecast soundings also suggest sufficient hodograph curvature for low level rotation and large hail potential (with hail up to 2"). This may increase the tornado potential for our area. What remains uncertain is how far south into our area these discrete cells will develop and how fast the atmosphere is able to destabilize during the day. As the front continues to push south and approaches our area Friday night, coverage of showers and storms along the front will increase. The potential for severe weather is expected to decrease during the night as the winds veer to the southwest but the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding may increase and continue on Saturday.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Our weather will remain fairly active over the weekend with widespread showers and a few storms on Saturday and additional rain chances on Sunday. The cold front will continue its way across the region on Saturday, slowing down as it moves towards Central Texas. Depending on where the front stalls is where the highest coverage of showers/storms will be. While we can't rule out a strong storm or two over Central Texas on Saturday, the main concern will be the potential for flash flooding. Most of the models are highlighting high PWs which will result in very efficient rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected across parts of Central and East Texas with localized 3-4+" possible along and south of I-20 through Sunday. Rain chances will decrease for North Texas on Sunday as the front remains nearly stationary over our southern counties.

Additional rain and storm chances are expected early next week as the previously closed upper low across Baja California and northern Mexico begins to shift eastward. We're still watching the potential for another round of severe weather and heavy rain on Tuesday as the storm system moves over our state. Details on timing and progression are still uncertain and will continue to be adjusted. The good news is that we could see rain chances end late Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low finally exits to our east.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Concerns...breezy south winds, rain and storm potential, and low clouds.

Ceilings should continue to lift or scatter out early this afternoon with VFR expected the rest of the day. Unlike yesterday, the greatest potential for storms this afternoon and evening will remain west of our region (near a dryline) and to the northeast towards the Red River where a stationary boundary is located. While we could still see a few showers develop near any of the sites, the potential for lightning to impact any of the sites remains around 20-30%. Most of the activity will diminish in the evening, after 00-01Z.

Widespread low clouds will return to all the TAF sites by 07-08Z Friday with MVFR ceilings prevailing much of the morning. Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected Friday afternoon with a potential for strong to severe storms with all hazards possible. Confidence in location and timing remains fairly low to introduce any mention of TS at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected today. Activation may be requested again late Friday into Saturday. Stay up-to-date with the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 67 81 58 / 50 20 80 70 Waco 81 67 81 65 / 40 10 60 60 Paris 78 64 80 60 / 60 30 70 90 Denton 78 65 79 53 / 50 30 80 60 McKinney 78 66 80 58 / 50 30 80 70 Dallas 80 67 81 60 / 50 20 80 70 Terrell 80 66 82 61 / 40 20 70 80 Corsicana 83 68 85 65 / 30 10 60 70 Temple 82 67 83 65 / 40 10 50 60 Mineral Wells 80 65 81 52 / 50 30 70 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.