Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A shift in the upper level pattern has begun and will continue to take place through the rest of the of the weekend, as an upper trough deepens across the western CONUS and a ridge strengthens along the Eastern Seaboard. The subsequent lee-side troughing and resulting tight pressure gradient will maintain the warm and breezy weather through tonight. Afternoon temperatures should approach 90, and a northward surge of gulf moisture will keep tonight's lows in the 70s. The latest suite of model guidance continues to indicate a signal for isolated convection this afternoon and evening associated with a shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft.

A lack of a surface focusing mechanism (the dryline should be well west of the area) will make it difficult for any convective attempts to overcome a pronounced warm layer or "cap" at 700mb, which should keep most areas warm and dry. That being said, it is possible that an isolated storm or two may overcome the cap, and any storm which develops could quickly become capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The latest CAMs have converged on an area of enhanced moisture convergence roughly along the I-35 corridor, where 10-20% POPs will be in place late this afternoon and this evening. Any convection which develops would likely dissipate around midnight with the loss of instability and strengthening of the cap.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A stronger and more pronounced shortwave will eject northeast through the Plains on Monday, which should drag the dryline a little farther east to near the Big Country Monday afternoon. The cap will still be well in place, but stronger ascent associated with the shortwave and the proximity of the dryline should increase potential for convection to overcome the persistent warm layer. Coverage may still be low, but any isolated storm which develops would have the potential to become severe. CAMs are not too excited about development just yet, but the coarser scale models have consistently indicated at least isolated development east of the dryline late Monday afternoon. Storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as they move east to and across the I-35 corridor, eventually dissipating Monday night.
This will be a "hit or miss" scenario, and not everyone will experience a thunderstorm (much less severe weather), but enough of a threat exists to at least pay attention late Monday.

The main upper trough axis will slowly propagate east through the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing even better rain chances to the region. Showers and storms will become focused along an attendant cold front as it pushes slowly southeast through the region on Tuesday, reaching the southern counties Tuesday night.
Activity would eventually dissipate overnight, potentially bringing a brief lull in rain chances on Wednesday. The severe threat appears fairly low at this time due to the positive tilt characteristic of the trough, but there will be at least a low end threat for damaging winds based on the amount of shear and instability present.

The latest guidance now indicates that troughing aloft will linger across the Desert Southwest within the southern stream of a developing split flow regime, and the front may become quasi- stationary somewhere near the southern border of the CWA
Shortwaves emanating from the southern branch trough will keep rain and storm chances going late in the week, with the main trough eventually bringing at least one last opportunity for thunderstorms next weekend. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will make flooding an increasing concern the later in the week we get, which will be another thing to keep an eye on over the next several days. However it pans out, the front and continued rain chances should bring a return to near normal temperatures for the extended portion of the forecast.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MVFR ceilings have become fairly widespread across the region and will hang around for most of this morning, eventually lifting to VFR 16-18Z. Scattered warm/moist air advection showers across East Texas should stay east of all TAF sites, but will keep an eye on RADAR trends. Strong south winds will persist through tomorrow with gusts to 30 kt late morning through the afternoon, and perhaps again around midnight local with the development of the low level jet. There is a low-end chance for an isolated storm this afternoon and evening, but probabilities remain too low to include in any of the TAFs at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 10 Waco 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 Paris 87 73 87 72 / 20 20 30 30 Denton 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 10 McKinney 88 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 20 Dallas 90 76 91 74 / 20 20 20 10 Terrell 89 75 90 73 / 20 20 20 20 Corsicana 91 77 91 76 / 20 20 20 20 Temple 90 77 91 76 / 20 20 20 20 Mineral Wells 87 73 89 72 / 20 10 20 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.