Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM Moonset 8:13 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KFWD 160533 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
New Short Term, Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are expected this afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat.
- Scattered storms (40-60% chance) will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance).
- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/
An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi- stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today, before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low- level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1 km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small- probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our CWA today appear rather slim.
Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It's slight northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+ dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from the shortwave's arrival should ignite greater coverage of convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly, but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the evening before diminishing overnight.
-Stalley
LONG TERM
/Issued 1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ /Friday Night into Next Week/
Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500 J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place, serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds, with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather aware this weekend!
A period of active weather appears to continue through the start of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s through much of next week and even into next weekend.
Reeves
AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/
Winds are light and variable at the TAF sites as of 06z, but should return to southeasterly in the next few hours as a stalled frontal boundary pivots back to the northwest. This will also open the door for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion this morning, and these cigs should spread into Waco around or after 09z and into the Metroplex TAF sites closer to 12z. Lifting and scattering to VFR will occur by late morning, while winds veer increasingly southwesterly or westerly heading into the afternoon. Attention will then turn to convective chances, with initiation of isolated storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time.
Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light southeasterly winds resuming.
-Stalley
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 91 73 90 72 / 5 30 5 70 40 Waco 74 94 74 92 72 / 10 30 40 30 20 Paris 72 88 66 87 69 / 20 30 10 60 50 Denton 66 91 68 90 69 / 5 20 0 70 40 McKinney 68 90 70 89 69 / 5 30 5 70 40 Dallas 72 93 72 91 72 / 5 30 5 70 40 Terrell 75 91 71 89 70 / 10 40 20 60 40 Corsicana 73 92 74 92 73 / 10 30 40 40 30 Temple 72 95 73 94 72 / 5 10 30 20 20 Mineral Wells 62 93 68 92 69 / 5 20 0 60 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
New Short Term, Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are expected this afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat.
- Scattered storms (40-60% chance) will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance).
- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/
An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi- stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today, before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low- level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1 km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small- probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our CWA today appear rather slim.
Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It's slight northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+ dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from the shortwave's arrival should ignite greater coverage of convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly, but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the evening before diminishing overnight.
-Stalley
LONG TERM
/Issued 1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ /Friday Night into Next Week/
Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500 J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place, serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds, with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather aware this weekend!
A period of active weather appears to continue through the start of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s through much of next week and even into next weekend.
Reeves
AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/
Winds are light and variable at the TAF sites as of 06z, but should return to southeasterly in the next few hours as a stalled frontal boundary pivots back to the northwest. This will also open the door for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion this morning, and these cigs should spread into Waco around or after 09z and into the Metroplex TAF sites closer to 12z. Lifting and scattering to VFR will occur by late morning, while winds veer increasingly southwesterly or westerly heading into the afternoon. Attention will then turn to convective chances, with initiation of isolated storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time.
Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light southeasterly winds resuming.
-Stalley
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 91 73 90 72 / 5 30 5 70 40 Waco 74 94 74 92 72 / 10 30 40 30 20 Paris 72 88 66 87 69 / 20 30 10 60 50 Denton 66 91 68 90 69 / 5 20 0 70 40 McKinney 68 90 70 89 69 / 5 30 5 70 40 Dallas 72 93 72 91 72 / 5 30 5 70 40 Terrell 75 91 71 89 70 / 10 40 20 60 40 Corsicana 73 92 74 92 73 / 10 30 40 40 30 Temple 72 95 73 94 72 / 5 10 30 20 20 Mineral Wells 62 93 68 92 69 / 5 20 0 60 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNFW
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNFW
Wind History Graph: NFW
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains
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Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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