Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brawley, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 4:36PM Friday December 6, 2019 10:31 PM PST (06:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 2:09AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brawley, CA
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location: 32.98, -115.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 070459 AAB AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1000 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE. Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Mostly cloudy skies will persist through Saturday as a low pressure system approaches the region. Periods of rainfall will develop across south-central Arizona early Sunday morning and continue through Monday, with the highest totals anticipated across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Drier conditions with near to slightly above normal temperatures are then expected for the majority of next week.

DISCUSSION. Latest water vapor imagery reveals a well-defined cut-off low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this system, abundant moisture in the upper-levels is streaming northeastward and producing mostly cloudy skies across the Desert Southwest. After a brief break in the clouds tonight, skies will become overcast later in the day Saturday.

Short-term models continue to depict the aforementioned low drifting into the Great Basin, while filling somewhat Saturday night. Despite the weakening, NAEFS PWAT/IVT anomalies generally remain above the 95th percentile across a large area. Forcing for ascent is less than ideal, however the NBM indicates the high likelihood of light precipitation across south-central Arizona early Sunday morning, particularly across the foothills and higher terrain, where orographic lift is favored.

An anomalously strong 140+ kt jet streak will become the predominant source of ascent across the region Sunday. Meanwhile, a vort max diving southward will reinvigorate and slow the eastward progression of the trough. Periods of rainfall will likely linger through Monday, before subsidence becomes more widespread during the afternoon. Consequently, the GEFS and ECMWF-E mean QPFs continue to trend higher. A tenth of an inch of rain is expected in the Valley, however the focus will be on the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix, where storm totals could ultimately reach one half to two thirds of an inch. Tonto Creek may respond quickly Sunday afternoon and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the communities along the creek.

Tranquil conditions are expected in the wake of the trough beginning Tuesday. Both the GEFS/ECMWF-E mean indicate the passage of a weak trough midweek, though it appears impacts will likely remain north of the area. Later in the week, the ensembles advertise positive height anomalies associated with an elongated eastern Pacific ridge, which will translate into slightly above normal temperatures and below normal rain chances.

AVIATION. Updated at 0500Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No significant aviation impacts expected over the next 18 hours at the Phoenix terminals. Considerable mid/high clouds will overspread the area with most bases aoa 15k feet tonight . as we move into morning on Saturday, expect some SCT decks in the 7-10k foot range. CIGs should probably stay above 10k feet for the most part during the days. We should see lowering CIGs along with showers developing during the night on Saturday night. CIGs in the Phoenix area may start to approach 6k feet as we move into the evening hours Saturday with isolated light showers developing. Winds next 24 hours to be quite light and only weakly favoring typical diurnal tendencies.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No real aviation concerns next 12 hours at least as BKN-OVC cirrus decks spread into the area ahead of an approaching weather system. May see FEW-SCT decks dropping into the 8-12k range overnight and they will persist and lower slightly as we move into the afternoon on Saturday. May see an isolated shower developing over the western deserts after noon Saturday but confidence is not overly high so opted to leave any mention of showers out of the TAFs until the evening hours on Saturday. Winds to be very light at both TAF sites next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday through Thursday: A weak storm system may begin produce periods of light showers Sunday into early Monday, mainly focused over the high terrain east of Phoenix. Wetting rains may be very isolated with limited accumulations. Minimum humidity levels will remain quite high only falling into a 30-50% range through early next week, then only decrease to a 20-30% range during the middle of the week. Overnight recovery will still be good to excellent. Winds may increase slightly early next week with the passage of this weather system, but nothing unusually strong would be expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for AZZ556.

CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Hirsch AVIATION . CB FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDBC1 - 9410170 - San Diego, CA 89 mi61 min 62°F1020.3 hPa
TIXC1 - Tijuana River Reserve, CA 89 mi61 min NE 2.9 60°F 1021 hPa58°F

Wind History for USS MIDWAY South Navy Pier, San Diego, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Imperial, Imperial County Airport, CA10 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F53°F75%1021 hPa
El Centro, Naval Air Facility, CA13 mi35 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds58°F50°F75%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIPL

Wind History from IPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmW4W5W4W3CalmSW3W4SW3W4NW4N55NW5N7N6N4N4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW4CalmCalmCalmS4SE3SW3CalmCalmS3W3N3N5N6N5E5SE3SW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3
2 days agoNE3E4CalmCalmS3SE4SE3NW5W5W11N8NW8NW8NW10N11NE3SE3CalmS3NE3N6N4N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for National City, San Diego Bay, California
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National City
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:10 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:18 AM PST     5.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:03 PM PST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:45 PM PST     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.52.33.34.45.25.65.654321.311.21.82.73.544.13.83.22.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for San Diego, California
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San Diego
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:10 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:14 AM PST     5.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:53 PM PST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:41 PM PST     3.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.62.43.34.35.15.55.34.73.82.71.81.211.31.92.73.43.93.93.632.31.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.