Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Encinitas, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

A trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest Monday which will cool conditions 10 to 20 degrees compared to today for all locations. Conditions will cool further into Tuesday which will be the coolest day of the week with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average at the coast and 10 to 20 degrees below average from the valleys to the deserts. In addition to cooler conditions, westerly winds will increase over the mountains and into the deserts starting Monday morning and continue into late Tuesday night. Winds will be strongest on the desert mountain slopes, through passes, and into the deserts. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph expected in the deserts, with local gusts closer to 65 through wind prone passes like the San Gorgonio Pass. On the desert mountain slopes, peak gusts will be 50 to 60 mph.

As the trough digs south into the Great Basin Monday night into Tuesday, the marine layer is expected to deepen. Widespread low clouds can be expected from the coast to the mountain slopes. The moisture will be deep enough that when a shortwave moves through the mean flow on Tuesday morning and when the trough axis passes Tuesday evening light showers may develop. Any shower development is most likely on the coastal mountain slopes, with the potential for some drizzle west of the mountains mainly on Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Ensemble guidance is showing a 20 to 40 percent chance of rainfall accumulations reaching or exceeding 0.10" in the mountains on Tuesday, with the highest chances on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino mountains. For the coast and valleys there is a less than 10 percent chance for accumulations to reach or exceed 0.10".
Local high resolution WRF guidance and HRRR guidance are indicating shower development on the foothills and in the mountains with rainfall rates less than 0.10" per hour Tuesday morning and evening.

The main trough axis will be to our east by Wednesday, which will allow for the winds to weaken, dry conditions to return, and for high temperatures to warm 5 to 10 degrees. Most ensemble solutions maintain an overall troughing pattern over the western United States for the remainder of the week, with a ridge of high pressure building over the Eastern Pacific. The overall troughing pattern will keep high temperatures just below the seasonal normal, maintain at least night and morning low cloud coverage, and elevated afternoon sea breezes. By next Sunday (May 19) global ensembles indicate the aforementioned ridge of high pressure may begin to move east and set up over the West Coast.

AVIATION
112030Z
Coast/Valleys
High clouds at or above 20000 ft but otherwise VFR prevails. Low clouds, albeit somewhat patchy, look to reform tonight, with a 60% chance for cigs at coastal sites by 09z Monday. Bases expected to be around 600-900ft MSL but may lift some overnight. These clouds look to have about 10 miles of inland extent, leading to VIS impacts for western valleys and coastal mesas. Clearing 15-17z Monday morning.

Mountains/Deserts
High clouds AOA 20000ft but otherwise clear with VFR conditions today. Elevated westerly winds with surface gusts 30-45 mph expected across mountains and deserts mid-afternoon through this evening, with mod up/downdrafts. BLDU will be possible, primarily in the deserts.

MARINE
Northwest winds strengthen for Monday and Tuesday, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt across the outer coastal waters leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Winds briefly diminish late Monday through Tuesday morning, but will strengthen again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Less strong winds by Wednesday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.