Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Colony, TX

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Though the CONUS' upper-level pattern is generally a somewhat static and highly amplified long-wave trough-ridge dipole (troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging out west), a cut-off low that has drifted into the Southern Great Plains from Northern Mexico will bring widespread upper-level cloud cover and light rain showers with the little Pacific moisture this disturbance has been able to bring poleward. Despite PWATs in the 0.5" - 1.0" range and modest forcing for ascent downstream the mid-level vort max currently situated over the Texas Hill Country, substantial dry air (as seen in the 12Z FWD sounding) below 500 hPa will greatly inhibit what precipitation is able to make it to the surface. Nonetheless, there have been some reports of light rain across Central Texas this morning, so will maintain the potential for isolated light rain showers (20-30%) for locations south of I-20 today.

Tonight, low temperatures will be 5-10 degree above normal, with persistent southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph and lingering high cloud cover preventing more efficient radiative cooling. Aloft, a shortwave will round the west side of the longwave trough currently positioned over the Appalachians. As this upper-level disturbance dives south, it is expected to amplify and replace the current trough over the eastern CONUS. Unfortunately for those wishing for rain, moisture and forcing for ascent will remain well to the north and east, with a dry cold front being the only sign at the surface of a seemingly more robust upper-level disturbance. Frontal passage is expected sometime Wednesday morning, with winds quickly shifting from westerly to northerly.
By noon, dry and windy conditions will be in place across the entire region as north winds will be sustained at 15-25 mph, potentially occasionally gusting to the 35-40 mph range. Winds will taper with the loss of diurnally driven mixing, resulting in a substantial reduction in wind speeds within the 1-2 hours after sunset. With minimum RH values in the 25-40% range, there will be elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Wednesday night, north winds will remain and weaken to 5-10 mph.
This in combination with clearing skies and dry air at the surface will help temperatures drop near or below freezing area-wide.

Thursday, the shallowness of the cold airmass responsible for Wednesday's cold front will be apparent, with highs in the low and mid-50s east of the I-35 corridor, but in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees in the slightly higher elevations of the Big Country.
Continued subsidence aloft and a very dry troposphere will keep skies clear during the day on Thursday.

Friday morning, a cold front will dive south across the region bringing another day of gusty north winds at 15-25 mph. Again, with forcing for ascent and moisture remaining far to the north and east, this will be another dry frontal passage. Elevated fire weather concerns will return to the area again with RH values Friday afternoon dropping into the 15-30% range. The driest air is expected to be across portions of the Big Country.

The cool dry air and relatively clear skies in place this weekend behind the front will result in near to slightly above normal afternoon highs (upper 50s and 60s) and near to slightly below normal lows (upper 20s to upper 30s).

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

An upper low currently working its way east across Central Texas will become absorbed tonight by a larger scale upper trough deepening over the MS Valley. This pattern shift will force a cold front south through the region overnight, bringing a shift to north winds at all airports. FROPA in the DFW Metroplex looks to be 09-11Z Wednesday, and 11-13Z at KACT based on the latest hi-res model guidance. Wind gusts of 30-35kt will be likely Wednesday afternoon before the gradient relaxes and high pressure slides in from the northwest Wednesday evening. Otherwise, VFR can be expected with occasional mid and high clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 62 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 43 63 34 58 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 43 58 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 41 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 43 60 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 46 62 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 42 62 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 44 66 34 57 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 41 66 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 40 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.