Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carlsbad, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE

Santa Ana winds at this lunch hour continue to be fairly weak and confined to coastal foothills and adjacent valleys. This is due to an area of low pressure that is beginning to form over the Great Basin, which will continue to push to the southeast over Arizona this weekend, becoming a closed low. Northerly and easterly winds on the backside of this system will contribute to breezy winds in typical areas of the coastal foothills and valleys through the weekend. The winds currently in a northerly direction will begin to shift more from the northeast on Saturday, favoring greater winds in San Diego County. Ensemble models generally point to winds gusting locally near 30-45 MPH Saturday morning and afternoon. Fire weather conditions will be fairly lower end due to recent rains and modest overnight recoveries.

This weather pattern will be conducive for very warm temperatures west of the mountains to the coast by this weekend. Confidence is high in seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The warmest areas will be on Sunday near the coast into the far western valleys of Orange and San Diego Counties. Some inland valleys may reach into the lower 90s with these areas seeing about a 35-65% chance of reaching over 90 degrees. Heat risk will be moderate for a short time in the early afternoon hours, so keep this in mind if attending outdoor events or working outside.

Warmer than normal temperatures look to stick around as model guidance shows an area of high pressure maintaining its strength over the region into the middle of next week. This will keep temperatures around 5-10 degrees above normal area wide. The forecast becomes more uncertain by the latter half of next week as a troughing pattern becomes more apparent over the NE Pacific. Details on where and when this system nears the area is still in question.
There remains better confidence in temperatures cooling back closer to normal by next weekend, but we continue to look into if this pattern will bring us any rain. For now, dry weather will occur through at least next Thursday.

AVIATION
070615...Clear with unrestricted VIS through Saturday. Northeast winds with gusts 30-45 kts for coastal slopes, adjacent foothills, and through mountain passes will continue into Saturday morning.
Pockets of LLWS before tonight into early Sat morning before winds decrease inland and turn onshore for coastal regions Saturday afternoon.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

BEACHES
High tides will exceed 7 feet each morning through Tuesday, peaking Sunday and Monday at 7.4-7.6 feet. A northwest swell at 2-3 feet with a period of 14-15 seconds will keep surf at 3-6 feet along west- facing beaches through Tuesday, with 3 foot waves more likely along south-facing beaches. This NW swell may even increase to 3-4 feet on Monday, which could bring breaking waves up to 7 feet.

The combination of high tides and elevated surf will likely generate minor coastal flooding, with chances for moderate coastal flooding along west-facing beaches where surf will be higher. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through noon Tuesday and contains more details.

Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current trends in actual tide observations.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.