Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carlsbad, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

SoCal will remain sandwiched between a high over the eastern North Pacific and one over TX/Mexico. This pattern will likely evolve into a Rex Block by Tue as a closed upper low moves into position south of the high off the NorCal coast. This will bring us mostly typical June weather through next Wed except for daytime temperatures which will be mostly a few to about 5 degrees above average for coastal regions and 5 to 10 degrees above average for far inland areas, including the mountains and deserts. Low temperatures will similarly be 5 to 10 degrees above average most place, with parts of the mountains and deserts seeing lows up to about 15 degrees above average. The marine layer will see minor day-to-day variations in depth, and the low clouds will return to the coastal areas and western portions of the inland valleys each night and morning.

For the latter half of next week...the east PAC high is weakened and displaced as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. There is still significant uncertainty in the details but we will likely see a trend toward cooler conditions with a deepening marine layer allowing low clouds to spread farther inland during the nights and mornings. Current model solutions indicate that temperatures next Sat will be near or up to 11 degrees below normal.

AVIATION
140430Z
Coast/Western Valleys
Low clouds are struggling to develop this evening. Clouds slowly organize and expand through the night up to 10-20 miles inland, though expected to remain very patchy until around 12z early Sunday. Bases 800-1200 ft MSL, settling mostly below 1000 ft MSL overnight. VIS 0-5SM in valleys east of I-15 in SD County and elevated coastal terrain where cigs reach. Scatter to beaches 15-18z Sun, then VFR conditions prevail through Sunday afternoon. Low clouds with similar bases are expected to develop in patchy fashion over coastal areas after 02z Mon, starting in SD County.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions are expected through Sunday evening with high clouds AOA 10 kft MSL. Gusty onshore winds through desert slopes and San Gorgonio Pass into the Coachella Valley bringing gusts 20-25 kts this evening, then again Sunday afternoon, after 00z Mon.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

BEACHES
Elevated surf and strong rip currents continue at area beaches into next week. Surf of 3-6 feet and sets to 7 feet are expected at south- facing beaches. San Diego County Surf will be slightly lower but, hazardous swimming conditions with high rip current and longshore current risk will still exist. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.