Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barnwell, SC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

The weather is expected to begin resembling our typical late Spring warm up as we head into this weekend and next week. A deep trough is forecast to dig and overspread the central US over the coming days, amplifying the downstream pattern across the eastern US. Ensemble guidance shows heights quickly rising to ~588dm, which is 90-95th percentile for this time of year.
Coinciding with this is an expected increase in southeasterly flow as our surface high from today sets up across the western Atlantic as a Bermuda high. Aside from a brief shot of a few showers or thunderstorms in the CSRA on Sunday, chances of rain appear low until the middle to late part of next week. Guidance across the board continues to show heights approaching the 95-98th percentile Mon-Tues. Highs Sun through Wed are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. With the high to our east & persistent onshore flow, surface moisture is expected be higher than it has been lately but not enough to really yield high precip chances. A front is forecast to approach but Wednesday night and Thursday, with chances for showers/storms increasing as a result. Overall, though, the above normal temps are forecast to be most impactful weather item over the next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR Conditions likely through 00Z Sunday. Slight chance of brief, shallow fog at AGS.

As high pressure continues to move further east we will see weak onshore flow develop tonight. The air mass as a whole remains very dry, but we should see shallow moisture return to the low levels. Although SE winds up the Savannah River can tend to promote fog at the Augusta sites, model guidance limits any restrictions to the coastal plain. A 10 to 15 kt LLJ should also help limit the fog threat. Even so, AGS may experience shallow ground fog briefly around sunrise but significant impacts to aviation are unlikely. Winds will be out of the S on Saturday from 5 to 10 kts. Moisture will be too shallow for any convection. Ceilings will likely remain VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases early Sunday and the first part of next week which may lead to early morning fog or stratus. Shower and thunderstorm chances return mid week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.