Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bamberg, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Temperature moderation expected to continue today - Isolated strong thunderstorms possible this evening

The main upper trough is currently passing our forecast area at this hour, which has pushed isolated shower and storm activity to the east of the forecast area. As the axis of this trough continues to move east, northwest flow aloft moves overhead, drying out somewhat. However, a weak shortwave within this flow is expected to move over the area late this afternoon into the evening. This shortwave could spark isolated shower or thunderstorm activity. There is potential for a stronger storm with large hail and/or damaging winds should storms develop as CAPE values are forecast to reach about 2000 J/kg and bulk shear values near 30 kts. The highest potential for a stronger storm appears to be in the upper CSRA at this point. Temperatures are expected to be near normal this afternoon and above average overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Warmer and dry to round out the work week.

Upper ridging will be in control of the weather across the FA for much of the short term. The higher heights associated with the ridge and high pressure to our south will promote warmer temperatures both days, with Friday expected to be the hottest day during the next seven. Southwest flow will keep the moisture in place, meaning we should have humid conditions as well with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees during peak heating on Friday. Plan accordingly if you have outdoor activities scheduled. A mainly dry forecast is expected despite scattered cumulus that should develop each afternoon. The one potential exception will be Thursday evening when some of the CAMs show a decaying MCS passing through North Carolina which may clip our northern counties. Keeping the entire region dry for now though. Daytime temperatures will be above normal with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continuing into the upcoming weekend.

- Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms chances each day.

The upper flow becomes mainly zonal this weekend before a stronger ridge sets up to our west early next week. At the surface, a weak cold front will approach the region on Saturday and could provide enough lift to trigger showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. While some of the guidance shows the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, the pattern is not ideal for convection, though trends will continue to be monitored. This boundary could stall in the area on Sunday and into early next week, keeping daily convective chances in the forecast though confidence is low, especially by Monday when the CWA is under the influence of the aforementioned ridging. While daytime temperatures are expected to peak on Friday, above normal readings should persist through the extended.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Generally VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the TAF period.

Currently, the typical cumulus field is being noted across the region. Expect this continue through the afternoon. There remains a chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop and affect any of the terminals through about 00z or so, but the chances are too low (<20%) to include in the TAFs. Overnight mid to high level cloud cover is anticipated, reducing the threat for stratus or fog. That said, the typical nuisance fog at AGS cannot be completely ruled out. Southwest winds between 5-10 kts are expected this afternoon, with a few gusts around 15 kts or so possible. Winds to become light and variable overnight, before becoming southwest again after about 13z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances finally decrease tonight with a return to fairly typical summer cumulus.

HYDROLOGY
Recent heavy rainfall has produced widespread amounts of 3 inches over many of the river basins, with amounts of up to 6-7 inches in some locations. A Flood Advisory continues along the Congaree in Columbia. River flooding continues across the area as a result, with the Congaree at Eastman and Gadsen in flood, the Saluda River at Chappells in flood, and the Edisto at Orangeburg in flood. With the North and South Forks of the Edisto River running high, did also issue a Flood Warning for the Edisto into Branchville. Rivers are generally expected to peak today or tomorrow before slowly falling back below flood stage late this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.