Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bamberg, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Key Message(s):

- Hot and dry today with a shower or storm possible along the sea breeze in the eastern Midlands.

Upper ridge is currently centered over the MS/TN Valley and Gulf Coast states while an upper trough is located over New England with another shortwave trough and associated convection moving across the Great Lakes region. Satellite imagery shows cumulus cloud development occurring as temperatures rise through the mid 80s and reach the convective temperature. Atmospheric moisture remains relatively low with satellite derived PWATs around 1-1.2 inches. Forecast soundings show a significant subsidence inversion around 700mb which combined with the lack of upper level forcing should limit convection this afternoon. Expect isolated showers or storms to develop along the sea breeze in the Coastal Plain which may push into the eastern Midlands so will continue the slight chance pops there. Highs expected to be a bit warmer today in the mid 90s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- High pressure starts to build in with a steady warming pattern through the weekend.

- Low end chance of a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the coastal plain.

Clearing is expected this evening into the overnight period as temperatures drop to seasonal values in the low 70s.

Strong upper ridging and associated surface high pressure will take root across the region during the short term. Subsidence associated with these features will limit convective chances with the greatest risk in the coastal plain associated with the sea breeze boundary. Most locations will end up dry both Sunday and Monday. Building ridging will result in a warming trend with near to above normal temperatures.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Strong upper ridging remains in place through the period, weakening somewhat later in the week.

- The ridging results in hot and humid conditions producing dangerously high heat index values.

- Rain chances are near zero through Wednesday, increasing later in the week.

The anomalously strong upper ridge will remain the primary driver of our weather during the extended. This will result in above normal temperatures across our forecast area with peak heat index values generally in the 103 to 108 degrees range each day. These values could approach Heat Advisory criteria and products may be needed at least one day during the long term if trends continue. The FA is on the southern edge of the heat dome suggesting that record heat is not likely, though daytime highs should approach 100 degrees during the mid-week period. As the ridge weakens somewhat, rain chances will return though any convection will likely be isolated at best and most likely driven by the sea breeze.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Mostly clear skies this morning with a SCT cumulus field developing this afternoon around 5-7kft MSL. SFC winds generally light, though a ELY/SELY component may develop this afternoon around 5-8 kts. There may be an isolated shower or two this afternoon but coverage and confidence are too low to include in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the weekend, which could bring associated restrictions. Dry next week with no restrictions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.