Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 11:15 PM   Moonset 7:54 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 270045 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 745 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight through/

As of early this evening, most of the storm activity has shifted east of our area, with the severe threat coming to a close as the dryline retreats west. A lull in precipitation is expected through tomorrow morning as the shortwave that brought our earlier storms continues to depart towards the Midwest. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s as increased nocturnal cloud cover and gusty winds keep us warmer.

Just upstream of the departing shortwave is another upper low that is currently over the Desert Southwest. This low will swing into the Central Plains tomorrow, bringing the lift for our next round of severe weather. The surface dryline will once again push east, eventually landing near US-281. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to form off the dryline and move east/northeast across North Texas as the upper low continues to move closer to the Continental Divide. Once again, there is a severe risk with all hazards possible through the afternoon and early evening.

Over mid-late Saturday evening, storm mode should switch from supercells and clusters to more of a linear mode as they move through the region tomorrow night into Sunday morning. One thing of note is that the tornado threat will be increased with the initial discrete cells that develop and move into our northwestern counties. As the line of storms moves east overnight in response to the upper low swinging towards Wisconsin, all hazards will remain possible into Sunday morning. During this time, flash flooding will also pose a concern, especially in those areas that received heavier rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect for counties east of US-281 and north of US-84 through Sunday evening. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5" with isolated higher amounts up to 6" are expected over the next 72 hours.

With concern to the strong winds: strong winds are expected to persist through the morning hours on Sunday, with gusts up to 40 mph possible. With sustained winds around 25 mph tomorrow afternoon and evening, a Wind Advisory will likely be needed through Sunday morning. This advisory issuance will be done overnight tonight.

With the continued severe weather threat: make sure to have your plan in place and to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially when it pertains to our overnight line of storms tomorrow.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ /Sunday Onward/

Lingering convection from Saturday night will likely be ongoing somewhere near the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. Activity will spread slowly east through the eastern half of the region during the day Sunday as the upper low responsible lifts northeast from the plains to the Midwest. The severe threat, though not completely gone, will have lessened with the loss of instability and the exit of the strongest lift. The threat for flooding, however, will still exist even if the severe threat has diminished. A Flood Watch has hence been issued for now through Sunday afternoon for areas along and east of a line from Bowie to Granbury to Waco, where widespread rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches can be expected, along with isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches.

A trailing shortwave will continue to provide enough ascent to keep rain chances going across the far eastern zones into Sunday evening, with rain ending area-wide Sunday night or Monday morning. A lull in rain chances will then occur for the rest of the day Monday as a weak ridge develops aloft, but isolated storms will return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of weak disturbances round the northern flank of the ridge. The Tuesday- Wednesday convection will initiate along the dryline, which will set up just west of the area, with a few severe storms possible each afternoon/evening.

Better thunderstorm chances will arrive on Thursday as an upper trough crosses the central CONUS and a cold front surges south through the forecast area. These storms will exit to the south as the front heads for the Gulf Coast Thursday night. Cooler and drier conditions can then be expected next Friday through the following weekend behind the front.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Showers and storms have moved east of the TAF sites this evening, leaving all airports prevailing VFR with gusty south- southeast winds. MVFR cigs will surge northward overnight, overtaking the TAF sites before the morning push and lingering through the morning. Skies should begin to scatter out late morning, returning to VFR by early tomorrow afternoon. Strong and gusty southeasterly winds will prevail. The next round of isolated showers and storms is expected to impact D10 beginning around 19Z, with better thunderstorm probabilities starting around 22Z. This activity should remain isolated- scattered in nature enough to preclude a TEMPO for this TAF issuance. Better chances for direct terminal impacts will be further into Saturday night and will be included in future issuances.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 82 65 79 66 / 10 10 100 80 20 Waco 69 82 65 77 66 / 40 10 50 80 30 Paris 67 81 65 74 64 / 30 20 50 90 50 Denton 69 81 62 79 63 / 10 20 100 70 10 McKinney 69 81 65 77 65 / 20 20 100 80 20 Dallas 69 83 65 79 66 / 20 10 100 80 20 Terrell 69 82 67 76 66 / 40 10 60 90 40 Corsicana 70 85 70 79 67 / 50 5 30 80 50 Temple 70 82 67 77 66 / 30 10 40 80 30 Mineral Wells 69 81 61 82 61 / 5 40 100 40 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-102>107- 117>123-131>135-144>146-159.

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