Pilot Point, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilot Point, TX

April 17, 2024 4:40 PM CDT (21:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM
Moonrise 1:30 PM   Moonset 2:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilot Point, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 172000 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ /Through Tomorrow Night/

Weather Highlights: -Isolated storms this afternoon -Severe storms Tomorrow Afternoon

Rest of This Afternoon & Tonight:

A warm and muggy day will continue through the rest of today thanks to the persistent southerly flow across the region.
Yesterday's front has retreated westward, and has stalled just west of our region. This boundary will act much like a dryline this afternoon with significantly drier air west of the dryline and moist conditions to the east.

Although no major forcing for ascent will be atop our region, diurnally driven convection may develop this afternoon across the Big Country. If they do develop, storm motion would take it to the east/northeast into our western-most counties. For that reason, we'll continue to advertise a minimal potential for a thunderstorm or two. Any strong convection will likely occur just west of our region with a weakening trend expected as storms shift east, away from the boundary. Storm chances will quickly dissipate after sunset as atmospheric stability sets in.

Tonight will be fairly quiet across the region with partly cloudy skies in place. Given the moist environment, temperatures will likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the night.

Tomorrow - Tomorrow Night:

A more active weather day is expected on Thursday as the pseudo- dryline and a cold front converge atop our region. Throughout the morning hours, the cold front will be progressing southward into our region, remaining precipitation free. During the afternoon, sufficient daytime heating is expected for convection to develop.
Given the warm surface temperatures, instability will build to 3000+ J/kg, increasing the threat for severe thunderstorm development. Severe storms would mainly contain a large hail and damaging wind threat as they progress east/southeast along the cold front. With instability waning after sunset, thunderstorms will gradually lose strength later in the afternoon/early evening.

Northerly winds will ensue behind the front, remaining below 15 mph through the rest of the night. This will help cool overnight temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-20.
60s are most likely south of I-20.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas (near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period, temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.

12

AVIATION
/Issued 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR returns tonight, improvements late tomorrow morning. VCTS has been added to account for increasing TS potential tomorrow afternoon.

VFR is ongoing and will continue through the rest of the afternoon into this evening. With southerly flow continuing, a return of low ceilings is expected once again. Initially, the low ceilings will approach KACT around 05Z, then the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex closer to 09Z. Guidance keeps the ceilings within the MVFR category through the late morning hours before VFR returns closer to noon.

A cold front will be approaching the region in the afternoon, with storms firing off along its leading edge. Storm timing appears most likely 21Z and beyond, therefore, it has only been included to the extended portion of the DFW TAF. Storms should be fairly quick to exit the region with only a few hours of thunderstorm potential. Additional refinements to storm timing can be expected in subsequent TAF cycles.

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 88 59 73 60 / 10 50 40 10 60 Waco 71 87 63 76 65 / 10 30 40 10 30 Paris 67 84 58 69 55 / 10 20 30 20 60 Denton 68 87 55 70 56 / 5 50 20 10 70 McKinney 69 86 58 71 58 / 5 50 40 20 70 Dallas 71 89 61 73 62 / 10 50 50 10 60 Terrell 68 85 60 74 61 / 10 30 50 10 50 Corsicana 71 87 63 79 65 / 10 20 30 10 40 Temple 70 87 63 79 64 / 10 30 40 10 30 Mineral Wells 68 89 57 71 58 / 5 40 10 10 70

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDTO DENTON ENTERPRISE,TX 15 sm47 minSE 13G2010 smA Few Clouds84°F70°F62%29.86
KGLE GAINESVILLE MUNI,TX 23 sm25 minSSE 13G1810 smClear82°F68°F62%29.89
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Wind History from DTO
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,



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