Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alvord, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Rain showers are expected to overspread much of North and Central Texas later tonight into Tuesday morning as large scale ascent increases ahead of a mid-level shortwave exiting the Trans-Pecos region. Most of this shower activity will remain across Central Texas until the lower levels of the atmosphere saturate closer to the I-20 corridor allowing for more widespread coverage across North Texas by 3-4AM early Tuesday morning. It will be a soggy Tuesday morning commute across much of the region with a few embedded thunderstorms not entirely out of the realm of possibility during the morning hours as this activity will still have access to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.

This broad precipitation shield will largely diminish and shift east of our area by Tuesday evening, but isolated to scattered showers may linger into Tuesday night, especially along and east of I-35. When all is said and done, the most likely rainfall totals will fall in the 0.5-1.25" range across Central Texas and 0.25-0.75" range across North Texas. Some of the more recent high- resolution guidance is suggesting that the daybreak activity near the I-20 corridor may be a little bit heavier than currently forecast, so localized totals of 1+" in the Metroplex and surrounding collar counties remain possible through Tuesday evening. Widespread, dense low-level cloud cover and rain-cooled air will keep afternoon highs down in the low to mid 60s Tuesday.

Although weak mid-level ridging will move in behind the shortwave Wednesday, deep moisture will still support isolated to scattered shower activity largely along and east of I-35 Wednesday afternoon and evening. Clouds will finally scatter out Wednesday afternoon as well allowing for temperatures to rise into the 70s across much of North and Central Texas.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A sharp dryline will set up to our west by Thursday with a warm and moist airmass remaining overhead much of North and Central Texas. With persistent embedded shortwaves in the west- southwesterly flow aloft, we could see periodic chances for isolated to scattered dryline thunderstorms during the latter half of this week. A major limiting factor to thunderstorm development, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, will be a stout capping inversion near 800mb. The better large-scale lift will also remain north of our forecast area on Thursday, so we will keep the potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two to 10% for late Thursday across our west.

Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher Friday afternoon and evening across the eastern half of our forecast area as the dryline pushes toward the I-35 corridor and a weak cold front nears the Red River. Warm-advection showers will be possible early in the afternoon, but more robust convective initiation may hold off until after 4-5PM when forecast soundings suggest the cap may break. Strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a large hail and damaging wind threat in any storms that develop late Friday afternoon and evening with the greatest threat generally along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20. This active pattern will continue into the weekend with increasing probabilities for thunderstorms, some strong to severe, across the eastern half of our forecast area late Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Widespread SHRA will overspread North and Central Texas after 09Z-10Z early Tuesday morning. Expect MVFR vis reductions through much of the day with intermittent periods of IFR vis increasingly likely in the 11Z-15Z timeframe when high-res guidance is pointing towards some +SHRA and potentially even embedded TSRA. Overall instability and potential for lightning is low, so we will continue to message a few hour period of VCTS near and after sunrise Tuesday morning. Widespread SHRA coverage will come to an end Tuesday afternoon with isolated to scattered SHRA activity continuing into the evening hours primarily along/east of I-35.

MVFR/IFR cigs will also usher in Tuesday morning as top-down moistening takes effect and cloud heights lower. Once IFR cigs, become established, they will likely hang on through the remainder of this TAF period. We may briefly inch up into MVFR status Tuesday afternoon and evening, but widespread IFR, potentially LIFR, cigs will fill back in Tuesday night. SSE winds at 7-12 kts will prevail through the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 58 78 65 / 70 20 20 0 Waco 64 60 78 65 / 80 20 30 0 Paris 63 55 75 62 / 50 30 30 0 Denton 64 55 77 63 / 60 20 20 0 McKinney 64 57 76 64 / 60 30 30 0 Dallas 64 58 78 66 / 70 20 30 0 Terrell 64 58 78 65 / 60 30 30 0 Corsicana 67 60 80 66 / 80 30 40 0 Temple 67 60 80 65 / 80 30 30 10 Mineral Wells 64 56 79 63 / 60 10 10 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.