Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alvord, TX
September 23, 2023 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC)
Sunrise 7:16AM Sunset 7:25PM Moonrise 2:47PM Moonset 12:00AM
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 231033 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New Aviation, Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No changes from the main parameters of the forecast discussion below. Just made some minor adjustments on hourly data for winds, dew points, and gusts.
05/Martello
Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/
The recent bout of well above-normal temperatures and oppressive humidity will continue through the Autumnal Equinox today. This is all a result of above-normal, mid-level anomalies associated with a shortwave upper ridge extending northward from Mexico this weekend. Afternoon highs today will reach around or just above the century mark for western North and Central Texas, with our East Texas counties seeing values more in the mid 90s. These areas will be under a little more northwest flow aloft and with more late nocturnal and early morning storms expected, there is enough confidence to leave them out of the Heat Advisory. I am more confident of cloud cover and slightly lower ambient temperatures/heat index values to occur. However, it doesn't mean folks in these areas should ignore the magnitude of the heat as it will still be very humid today with multiple days of a southerly fetch of surface winds having returned dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s across our eastern zones.
Heat index values between 104 to 110 degrees are expected across the remainder of the forecast area, though a few areas in western Central Texas will be borderline to the 105 degree heat index criteria. However, I will include them anyway considering the abnormality of the heat and humidity we're experiencing. Really crossing fingers by next week and thereafter, heat advisories for the 2023 season may finally be in the rear-view mirror! I do have very conditional, isolated storm chances across parts of North Texas late today and this evening. With the hot temperatures and inverted-V type profiles below a high cloud base, any storms would likely be very strong to possibly severe with very gusty winds and some hail possible.
Better rain chances will occur across eastern North Texas late tonight into early Sunday morning. A surface front will be draped just northwest of the forecast area across northwest Texas into southwest/south-central Oklahoma by this evening. A shortwave impulse traversing the crest of the upper ridge around this time should trigger better storm chances along the front. These storms will evolve into an MCS after nightfall as a 30-40kt LLJ feeds into this boundary with a likely MCS tracking southeast with the mean northwest flow aloft. The best chances for showers and storms are expected across our northeast counties overnight through daybreak with the MCS most likely impacting areas east of a Sherman-Denison, to Greenville, to Emory/Canton line with lower chances back as far west as I-35/35E corridors. Similar to any isolated development this afternoon, strong to marginally severe storms will be possible along with the addition of localized heavy rainfall in excess of an inch within the area describe above.
Otherwise, breezy, warm, and humid conditions are expected with lows Sunday in the mid-upper 70s with a reading around 80 degrees possible within the immediate heat island areas of the DFW Metroplex.
05/Martello
LONG TERM
/Issued 406 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ /Sunday's Cold Front Through Next Week/
Key Messages:
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
- The environment will be supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat in our area will be low.
- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Meteorological Details:
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across central/eastern Oklahoma and East TX Sunday morning ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Aloft, a mid level speed max/shortwave will continue rotating around the base of the strong northern Plains upper low/trough. The aforementioned cold front should reach North Texas by the afternoon as a trailing shortwave shifts eastward into/across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, strong diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath cold mid-level temperatures should result in moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon with MLCAPE projected to peak around 2000-3000 J/kg. Initially, a stout capping inversion should prevail in the 850-700 mb layer, however, by the late afternoon the weakened cap should be overcome by low-level convergence along the front and larger scale ascent attendant to the shortwave allowing for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
With enhanced mid-level flow and modestly veering low-level flow, the resultant 40-50 knot 0-6 km shear in combination with 7.0 to 8.0 degrees C per km 700-500mb lapse rates will support a supercellular convective mode initially, capable of a few instances of severe hail. Additionally, given the anomalously warm temperatures and a deeply mixed boundary layer, the environment will also support a threat for damaging outflow/downburst wind gusts over 50 knots. Convective coverage is expected to increase along the frontal boundary through the evening as cold pool interactions support upscale growth into one or more larger southeastward propagating cluster(s) carrying primarily a damaging wind threat.
By Monday, heavy rainfall totals may begin to be realized across parts of North and Central Texas, especially east of I-35 where a southwesterly 850mb moisture flux ahead of the front will push PWATs over 2 inches...near the max of daily climatology. This instability and moisture profile could result in efficient rainfall rates and the potential for flooding/flash flooding. As of this update, flash flood guidance values average between 2 and 4 inches across much of North and Central Texas. Currently, the storm total rainfall for the 48 hour period from 00Z Sunday to 00Z Tuesday (7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Monday) is most likely to range from around 0.50 inch in the Big Country up to around 2.00 inches in the northeast, with localized higher totals possible. Given lingering dry antecedent conditions and the likelihood that additional adjustments to QPF will occur based on refinements to frontal position and timing, we will continue to advertise the potential for minor nuisance flooding to isolated flash flooding with widespread flood issues unlikely at this time.
The cold front will continue to sag southeastward Monday, potentially reaching the Texas Hill Country and southeast Texas by the evening. The highest coverage of showers and storms will generally be focused nearest to the front in Central Texas on Monday. Diurnally driven instability across the moist airmass may allow for some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the surface boundary through the afternoon before it clears our southern zones. Marginal ascent and weaker deep-layer shear should keep the severe threat more isolated than it was the previous day. The main threats will be hail and damaging wind gusts. Drier and seasonably warm weather is expected to prevail in the wake of the late weekend/early week system as upper-level ridging builds through the Plains again.
Despite the early period FROPA, temperatures through the extended period will remain near to slightly above normal with highs in the 80s warming back into the 90s in most areas through mid to late week.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/
Concerns and challenges remain the same from the 06z discussion regarding low confidence of MVFR cigs at ACT this morning, very low TSRA chances after 21z (better coverage remaining NE of D10 airports), and wind gusts this afternoon and tonight with strong LLJ anticipated.
Otherwise, VFR with SE winds 8-10 knots becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts =/> 20 kts from midday into tonight.
05/Martello
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 97 73 87 / 20 20 50 80 40 Waco 98 77 97 73 88 / 10 5 40 70 70 Paris 94 73 88 69 84 / 10 70 80 80 40 Denton 99 77 97 70 88 / 20 30 50 80 40 McKinney 98 76 94 70 84 / 20 30 60 80 40 Dallas 100 79 98 72 87 / 20 20 50 80 50 Terrell 98 76 95 71 85 / 20 30 60 80 50 Corsicana 98 77 96 74 88 / 10 10 50 80 70 Temple 99 76 98 72 90 / 10 5 30 60 70 Mineral Wells 101 76 100 71 90 / 20 20 40 70 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>094- 100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New Aviation, Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No changes from the main parameters of the forecast discussion below. Just made some minor adjustments on hourly data for winds, dew points, and gusts.
05/Martello
Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/
The recent bout of well above-normal temperatures and oppressive humidity will continue through the Autumnal Equinox today. This is all a result of above-normal, mid-level anomalies associated with a shortwave upper ridge extending northward from Mexico this weekend. Afternoon highs today will reach around or just above the century mark for western North and Central Texas, with our East Texas counties seeing values more in the mid 90s. These areas will be under a little more northwest flow aloft and with more late nocturnal and early morning storms expected, there is enough confidence to leave them out of the Heat Advisory. I am more confident of cloud cover and slightly lower ambient temperatures/heat index values to occur. However, it doesn't mean folks in these areas should ignore the magnitude of the heat as it will still be very humid today with multiple days of a southerly fetch of surface winds having returned dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s across our eastern zones.
Heat index values between 104 to 110 degrees are expected across the remainder of the forecast area, though a few areas in western Central Texas will be borderline to the 105 degree heat index criteria. However, I will include them anyway considering the abnormality of the heat and humidity we're experiencing. Really crossing fingers by next week and thereafter, heat advisories for the 2023 season may finally be in the rear-view mirror! I do have very conditional, isolated storm chances across parts of North Texas late today and this evening. With the hot temperatures and inverted-V type profiles below a high cloud base, any storms would likely be very strong to possibly severe with very gusty winds and some hail possible.
Better rain chances will occur across eastern North Texas late tonight into early Sunday morning. A surface front will be draped just northwest of the forecast area across northwest Texas into southwest/south-central Oklahoma by this evening. A shortwave impulse traversing the crest of the upper ridge around this time should trigger better storm chances along the front. These storms will evolve into an MCS after nightfall as a 30-40kt LLJ feeds into this boundary with a likely MCS tracking southeast with the mean northwest flow aloft. The best chances for showers and storms are expected across our northeast counties overnight through daybreak with the MCS most likely impacting areas east of a Sherman-Denison, to Greenville, to Emory/Canton line with lower chances back as far west as I-35/35E corridors. Similar to any isolated development this afternoon, strong to marginally severe storms will be possible along with the addition of localized heavy rainfall in excess of an inch within the area describe above.
Otherwise, breezy, warm, and humid conditions are expected with lows Sunday in the mid-upper 70s with a reading around 80 degrees possible within the immediate heat island areas of the DFW Metroplex.
05/Martello
LONG TERM
/Issued 406 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ /Sunday's Cold Front Through Next Week/
Key Messages:
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
- The environment will be supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat in our area will be low.
- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Meteorological Details:
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across central/eastern Oklahoma and East TX Sunday morning ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Aloft, a mid level speed max/shortwave will continue rotating around the base of the strong northern Plains upper low/trough. The aforementioned cold front should reach North Texas by the afternoon as a trailing shortwave shifts eastward into/across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, strong diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath cold mid-level temperatures should result in moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon with MLCAPE projected to peak around 2000-3000 J/kg. Initially, a stout capping inversion should prevail in the 850-700 mb layer, however, by the late afternoon the weakened cap should be overcome by low-level convergence along the front and larger scale ascent attendant to the shortwave allowing for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
With enhanced mid-level flow and modestly veering low-level flow, the resultant 40-50 knot 0-6 km shear in combination with 7.0 to 8.0 degrees C per km 700-500mb lapse rates will support a supercellular convective mode initially, capable of a few instances of severe hail. Additionally, given the anomalously warm temperatures and a deeply mixed boundary layer, the environment will also support a threat for damaging outflow/downburst wind gusts over 50 knots. Convective coverage is expected to increase along the frontal boundary through the evening as cold pool interactions support upscale growth into one or more larger southeastward propagating cluster(s) carrying primarily a damaging wind threat.
By Monday, heavy rainfall totals may begin to be realized across parts of North and Central Texas, especially east of I-35 where a southwesterly 850mb moisture flux ahead of the front will push PWATs over 2 inches...near the max of daily climatology. This instability and moisture profile could result in efficient rainfall rates and the potential for flooding/flash flooding. As of this update, flash flood guidance values average between 2 and 4 inches across much of North and Central Texas. Currently, the storm total rainfall for the 48 hour period from 00Z Sunday to 00Z Tuesday (7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Monday) is most likely to range from around 0.50 inch in the Big Country up to around 2.00 inches in the northeast, with localized higher totals possible. Given lingering dry antecedent conditions and the likelihood that additional adjustments to QPF will occur based on refinements to frontal position and timing, we will continue to advertise the potential for minor nuisance flooding to isolated flash flooding with widespread flood issues unlikely at this time.
The cold front will continue to sag southeastward Monday, potentially reaching the Texas Hill Country and southeast Texas by the evening. The highest coverage of showers and storms will generally be focused nearest to the front in Central Texas on Monday. Diurnally driven instability across the moist airmass may allow for some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the surface boundary through the afternoon before it clears our southern zones. Marginal ascent and weaker deep-layer shear should keep the severe threat more isolated than it was the previous day. The main threats will be hail and damaging wind gusts. Drier and seasonably warm weather is expected to prevail in the wake of the late weekend/early week system as upper-level ridging builds through the Plains again.
Despite the early period FROPA, temperatures through the extended period will remain near to slightly above normal with highs in the 80s warming back into the 90s in most areas through mid to late week.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/
Concerns and challenges remain the same from the 06z discussion regarding low confidence of MVFR cigs at ACT this morning, very low TSRA chances after 21z (better coverage remaining NE of D10 airports), and wind gusts this afternoon and tonight with strong LLJ anticipated.
Otherwise, VFR with SE winds 8-10 knots becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts =/> 20 kts from midday into tonight.
05/Martello
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 97 73 87 / 20 20 50 80 40 Waco 98 77 97 73 88 / 10 5 40 70 70 Paris 94 73 88 69 84 / 10 70 80 80 40 Denton 99 77 97 70 88 / 20 30 50 80 40 McKinney 98 76 94 70 84 / 20 30 60 80 40 Dallas 100 79 98 72 87 / 20 20 50 80 50 Terrell 98 76 95 71 85 / 20 30 60 80 50 Corsicana 98 77 96 74 88 / 10 10 50 80 70 Temple 99 76 98 72 90 / 10 5 30 60 70 Mineral Wells 101 76 100 71 90 / 20 20 40 70 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>094- 100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLUD DECATUR MUNI,TX | 10 sm | 11 min | S 09 | 7 sm | Clear | 84°F | 72°F | 66% | 29.90 | |
| KXBP BRIDGEPORT MUNI,TX | 15 sm | 16 min | S 08 | Clear | 88°F | 70°F | 55% | 29.90 |
Wind History from LUD
(wind in knots)
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE