Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alvord, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Afternoon/

A warmer but quiet day is in store across the region with the return of southerly winds, but low humidity will make afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s quite tolerable.

Most high-res guidance members quickly usher a warm front northward overnight into tomorrow, bringing dew points back into the mid to upper 60s south of the front. An axis of 2500-4000 J/kg of CAPE is expected to emerge near and south of the warm front by early afternoon as a dryline simultaneously sharpens to our west. As the cap erodes by early to mid afternoon, scattered showers and storms should develop near the Red River Valley, and this activity will move southward through North Texas through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Storm development could occur as early as 1 to 3 pm; however, there are still some discrepancies among CAM members, with most favoring development mid to late afternoon.
Ultimately, storm development will largely depend on how quickly the cap erodes and the northward speed of the warm front, so we'll need to watch these two factors closely.

While discrete supercells will be favored as the initial storm mode, upscale growth into a complex or two of storms is expected as this activity moves through North Texas. The main question that remains is whether upscale growth will happen Thursday afternoon or further into the evening. Hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with the greatest hail threat expected with any discrete storms. Low-level shear won't be particularly favorable for a tornado threat, but the threat will be non-zero.

Barnes

LONG TERM
/Issued 240 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/

Scattered thunderstorm activity may still be ongoing across parts of North Texas Thursday night into early Friday morning depending on the degree of organization. However, coverage should have a tendency to diminish with loss of heating. The warm front and dryline boundaries responsible for this activity's earlier initiation will be pulled farther north and west heading into Friday in response to lee cyclogenesis preceding a deepening western CONUS trough. This will remove most forcing mechanisms for thunderstorm development from the CWA, and we'll be positioned with an increasingly warm/humid/unstable but capped warm sector to end the week. The result should be a pair of seasonably hot and humid days with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s and dewpoints returning to the 60s and lower 70s. These conditions could combine for a few heat index values reaching triple digits, especially on Saturday.

The aforementioned frontal zone will be driven back southward as a cold front as the upper trough makes further eastward progress into the Central Plains. Its arrival in North Texas on Sunday afternoon/evening should be accompanied by fairly widespread convection given the amply moist and unstable buoyant sector ahead of it. Shear will be lacking with only 20-30 kts of mid-level flow overhead, but strong instability could certainly support isolated severe hail/wind threats. This activity should progress southeastward through the entire CWA Sunday night and into Monday morning, so those with outdoor events/activities for the Memorial Day holiday weekend should remain aware of the forecast. This cold front is advertised by most guidance to be rather formidable for late May, and has the potential to hold temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees below normal through the early portion of next week.
Highs will only range from the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Lagging synoptic ascent following the front's passage could continue to support partly/mostly cloudy skies and low rain chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

-Stalley

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the period across North Texas, with a brief window of MVFR ceilings possible across Central Texas/KACT Thursday morning. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast around 10 knots or less through the period, though a few gusts between 15-20 knots will be possible through the afternoon.

Scattered storms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon near the Red River and will move south through the evening. While there is a low potential for storms in D10 during the current TAF window, the highest potential will be just after 00Z. Therefore, will keep the TAF rain/storm-free for now until confidence increases in storm timing.

Barnes

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 68 92 66 88 / 0 0 50 20 5 Waco 89 67 93 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 0 Paris 85 60 84 61 83 / 0 0 50 20 5 Denton 87 63 89 62 88 / 0 0 50 20 5 McKinney 86 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 50 20 5 Dallas 88 68 92 66 88 / 0 0 50 20 5 Terrell 86 64 89 64 87 / 0 0 40 20 5 Corsicana 89 67 92 68 90 / 0 0 20 10 0 Temple 90 68 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 0 Mineral Wells 89 64 94 64 91 / 0 0 40 20 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.