Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alvord, TX

UPDATE
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening mainly south of I-20 within a warm uncapped airmass featuring modest large scale forcing for ascent thanks to a passing disturbance.
The entrance region of a departing upper jet is nosing down into North Texas this evening and should continue to support ascent through the late evening hours. Meanwhile, at the surface a humid airmass is in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, however there is a lack of any appreciable boundaries to focus deeper convection. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extends from near Lampasas to Cleburne and has largely remained in place across this area over the last hour or so. There is a weak axis of higher theta-e air in this region with a notable decrease in instability to the east. This moisture gradient may be sufficient to maintain ongoing convection through the late evening in the presence of modest large scale forcing for ascent. We'll maintain generally high PoPs in the area along I-35 and south of I-20 through the late evening with an overall decrease in convection expected as the aforementioned shortwave pulls out of the region.

Given high PW values and limited inhibition, we would expect rainfall rates to remain fairly efficient through the late evening hours. The current Flood Watch across our far southeast counties represents this potential, however this area is currently void of precipitation given the focus for development is both to the north and south of this area. Given the potential for some redevelopment through the late evening hours in this moist environment as the low level jet strengthens a bit, we'll leave the Flood Watch as is for now, but if additional precipitation fails to develop, we'll cancel this watch prior to midnight.

Dunn

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The weather models are struggling with the expected trends for rain and storms today, but continue to show a consensus for training of storms and an increased potential for flash flooding somewhere across Central Texas, the Hill Country, and/or the Brazos Valley areas. For this reason and in collaboration with our neighboring offices, we issued a Flood Watch from 1 pm through 4 am for four of our southernmost counties; but it's possible the Watch may need to be expanded north a row or two of counties.

The atmosphere remains very humid across the region with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and PWAT values up to 1.5" (near the maximum for this date). A weak upper level disturbance continues to approach from the west and will be providing some larger scale lift through the remainder of the day. Clouds have remained in place across most of the region, limiting the amount of destabilization so far, with some occasional scattering of the clouds across western portions of our coverage area. The remnant outflow boundary from this morning's convection has washed out, but the dryline can easily be identified in west Texas.

For the remainder of the day, the best coverage of showers and storms is expected to be across Central Texas with more limited coverage in North Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should develop across Central Texas within the next few hours and persist into the overnight hours. The models continue to suggest the storms will consolidate along a band somewhere between Austin and Waco, but the location is uncertain. Where this band sets up, a higher threat for flash flooding will exist due to the slow moving nature of the storms and efficiency for producing heavy rainfall. The early morning model data placed the band of storms just south of our coverage area, but newer high resolution data is attempting to move the band farther north. If a more northward location is realized, the Flood Watch will likely need to be expanded north. Isolated rainfall totals up to 5" will be possible in parts of Central Texas.

A low potential for strong/severe storms will exist in Central Texas for the remainder of the day, but the area will struggle to destabilize and the better environment will remain south of our area. If storms become strong or severe, the main hazard will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Another potential for isolated strong or severe storms will exist through the early evening hours in our far western counties, ahead of the dryline. This area is becoming more destabilized this afternoon with CAPE and theta-e values increasing ahead of the dryline. Shear vectors would be supportive of supercells, and any storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds, with a lower potential for tornadoes.

The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will persist into the overnight hours near and where the band of storms forms in Central Texas. The rain should dissipate and/or exit our area in the middle of the night as the shortwave disturbance moves east of the region. The potential for storms on Monday is much more limited than today as we will be in shortwave ridging behind the disturbance. However, there may be scattered small showers quickly streaming from south to north during the morning hours with the help of a strong low-level jet as ample moisture will remain in place. Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur in East Texas in the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Chances for rain and storms will continue Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as another upper level trough approaches from the west. On Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to form along the dryline to our west and move into our area late into the evening and overnight. A threat for severe storms will exist, but the storms may be weakening as they move into our western counties. The better potential for severe storms exists on Wednesday as the upper level trough moves into the Plains. All the ingredients for severe storms and heavy rainfall will be in place on Wednesday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible.
It's possible two rounds of storms may occur, and we will refine the details on mode, location and timing over the next few days.

With yet another upper level trough moving into the western CONUS Thursday and Friday, rain chances remain in the forecast Friday through next weekend, and we may even have a few storms in our western counties Thursday. It's a little too early to assess the severe storm potential beyond Wednesday with any confidence, but we are in peak severe weather season now.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue mainly south of the D10 airspace this evening, but we'll have to monitor their northward progress through the late evening. The 00Z issuance will remove the TEMPO for TSRA as this initial activity diminished as it approached the southern Metroplex. We'll maintain MVFR cigs through most of the night with a trend toward IFR in the early morning hours Monday. It appears that rain chances will lower through the overnight hours and we'll remain generally precipitation free through Monday. A warm moist airmass will feature slow to scatter cigs with gradual improvement through the afternoon and another round of MVFR cigs Monday night.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 85 68 82 / 20 20 10 10 Waco 68 82 67 81 / 50 20 10 10 Paris 66 80 66 80 / 40 20 10 10 Denton 66 85 66 81 / 10 20 10 10 McKinney 67 84 67 81 / 20 20 10 10 Dallas 68 84 68 82 / 20 20 10 10 Terrell 67 83 67 82 / 40 20 10 10 Corsicana 67 85 69 85 / 50 20 10 10 Temple 68 84 67 84 / 60 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 66 87 66 82 / 20 10 20 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for TXZ158-162-174-175.