Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alvord, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No significant changes to the short term forecast were necessary with this evening's update. After a warm day today with highs having reached the mid 80s, the warming trend will amplify tomorrow with widespread readings in the 90s and even a few 100s.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday Night/

After a rather comfortable weekend, today will be a transition day for all of North and Central Texas. The influence of a stalled area of low pressure across Louisiana will gradually diminish, turning our winds out of the south later today. This shift in the wind will commence our warming trend that will peak by the middle of the week.

A 10 to 15 degree warm-up can be expected tomorrow compared to today as high pressure begins to build from the west. The combination of the high pressure, southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies will yield highs in the 90s to around 102 along and west of the I-35 corridor.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 1258 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ Update: Record-breaking hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday across North and Central Texas. Make sure to plan accordingly as these will be the hottest days of the year thus far. Make sure to remain hydrated over the coming days!

The forecast itself remains largely unchanged compared to this morning's forecast. Temperatures will remain fairly warm through the end of the week. Low storm chances arrives Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend, especially across North Texas.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Tuesday Night Onward/

A streak of above normal temperatures will be well underway as a mid/upper ridge becomes planted over Texas and the Southern Plains during the midweek period. Temperatures should remain mostly in the 70s Tuesday night before climbing into the 90s and triple digits on Wednesday. In addition to the high pressure aloft, a weak disturbance rounding the top of the ridge will aid in the eastward surge of the dryline Wednesday afternoon. Sunny skies, downslope flow and dry air should push temperatures to record values at both DFW and Waco, where forecast highs are around 100 while record highs are 95 and 96 respectively.

The ridge will shift east Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper low over the Rockies lifts northeast through the Central Plains. This pattern shift will force a weak cold front about halfway into North Texas on Thursday, while shoving the dryline east again ahead of the front. Southwest winds and more downslope flow will push temperatures well into the 90s south of the front, while mid and upper 80s are still expected on the north side of the boundary. Despite the presence of the front and dryline, a deep elevated mixed layer around 700mb will likely preclude thunderstorm development.

A similar set-up will be in place on Friday, though the front will have lifted north to near the Red River. In addition, a trailing shortwave moving east across Texas may provide the added lift necessary in eroding the cap. Isolated thunderstorms will be the likely result Friday afternoon and evening, with development being along and east of the dryline and along/south of the surface front. The latest guidance pushes the dryline to near the I-35 corridor Friday afternoon, which is where convective initiation would likely occur. Storm coverage may be low, but any storm which forms will have a good chance of becoming severe based on the highly sheared and unstable environment in place. Storms would spread east of I-35 in the evening, eventually dissipating Friday night.

The dryline will again be the focus for convective development Saturday afternoon and evening as a second disturbance passes overhead, with any storm which develops potentially becoming severe. A lull in thunderstorm development may then occur Sunday and next Monday, followed by more widespread showers and storms next Monday night or the following Tuesday as a larger scale trough and cold front sweep through the Southern Plains.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Winds have become light and variable early this evening at speeds less than 5 kts, but should take on a more persistent southeasterly direction in the next couple of hours. Speeds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts around 25 kts during the daytime tomorrow, while FEW/SCT mid clouds at 15 kft drift overhead.

-Stalley

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 95 70 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 61 99 72 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 59 87 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 59 94 65 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 61 91 67 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 64 96 70 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 61 90 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 63 93 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 61 100 71 104 72 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 59 99 66 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.