Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for George, SC

UPDATE
The main axis of showers this morning is lifting north of New Hanover County with a line setting up offshore that will start moving inland within the hour. This will continue clearing out from S to N with activity decreasing in coverage into this afternoon, particularly at the coast. Lighter rain with some embedded storms are also ongoing inland but these will also be clearing out SE to NW. Lightning activity is largely isolated this morning. Rainfall totals are largely 0.5-1" with ~2" in spots that have had heavier showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A lingering boundary will lift north today as a warm front as a deep upper low moves north from the Gulf coast. Winds to the north of the boundary were more ENE early this morning while south and east of the boundary were SE. Looks like best moisture and lift will be in a axis from Florida and SE GA up into SC lined up better with sfc front and flow around upper low.
Another axis of moisture will be associated with lift along warm front just north of Cape Fear and across SE NC late this morning. The pcp water values in this area will reach up to 1.8 inches while the rest of the area is closer to 1.6 inches. This coincides with DESI probs for greater than 1 inch up to 30 to 40% over and north of Pender county late this morning where shwrs and tstms will be likely. Otherwise pcp should remain rather spotty over the local area into early this aftn.

As front lifts north, there looks like there may be a secondary increase in convection mid to late afternoon into tonight as increasing deeper southerly flow develops and better upper level support. Have not issued any Flood Watch as the pcp comes in waves and ground should be able to handle it with more isolated heavier amounts. It's not to say that a Flood Advisory will be out of the question for localized heavier amounts, but thinking widespread flash flooding will be unlikely with drier soils overall. Better convective activity should come late today into tonight as low pressure lifts north and cold front moves through the eastern Carolinas. The diurnal range of temps will be less with clouds and pcp today through tonight. Expect afternoon highs to reach near 75 while overnight lows tonight should hold in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
During this time period, the upper cutoff low, over TN/KY at the start of this period, will be lifting northward and slowly opening up into a negatively tilted trof pivoting/extending across the FA by Wed morning. Although will have gotten dry slotted Tue morning, still expect convective pcpn to fill in across the FA Tue aftn/evening as portions of the colder air aloft aid convective processes along with a continued moist airmass. Kept low chance pops Tue overnight and then revamped them up again Wed as the upper trof axis swings to and across the FA. Model pivot the trof north of the FA during Wed night as a s/w small amplitude upper ridge follows. With clouds and pcpn, diurnal range of temps will be relatively on the low side given this time of year. Overall, the best/hiest qpf will have occurred prior to this fcst period, or actually ending Tue morning just prior to the dry slot.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low amplitude upper ridging will dominate Thu thru Fri, with the upper ridge axis off the SE States coast by Sat. However, flow aloft to run from the WSW-W more-so straight from the Pacific as a flattened but persistent upper high governs the Gulf. This points to less Pops this period, isolated to scattered (may even be a bit too much) at best each aftn/evening and likely relying on the sea breeze. Look for warming temps Thu thru Sat, with widespread 90s possible Fri and Sat away from the coast.
Subsidence inversion will help limit the convection Thu thru Sat. Sfc cold front tries to sneak southward Sun which may allow for an increase in Pops but given timeline, may just indicate dry conditions at this juncture.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Terminals fluctuating mainly between VFR and MVFR with pcp increasing in shra/tsra mainly from ILM to LBT terminals this morning. Expect occasional shra but should be brief MVFR to IFR. Confidence is lower in terms of how long IFR ceilings will last for inland terminals, but mainly possible in the early morning hours inland. The best axis of heavier pcp should remain just west of terminals into the morning hours, but have included Prob30 for much of the period as spotty pcp will persist. Chc of moderate to heavier showers with lower vsbys and ceilings will be more likely after 14z for ILM and most likely after 18 to 20z for the Myrtles and inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in flight restrictions Monday eve through Tuesday, with occasional shra/tsra.
Restrictions should continue into Wednesday (moderate confidence), though the rain chances do back off a tad. Things finally dry out by Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to VFR.

MARINE
Through Monday...ENE winds north of lingering front will come around to a more SE and southerly flow today through tonight increasing up to 15 to 20 kts with gusts reaching up to 25 kts by this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River, SC at 11 AM EDT, mainly for seas up to 6 ft, and then from Little River, SC to South Santee River, SC at 8 PM EDT for seas to 6 ft and increasing gusts up to 25 kts. Persistent SE to southerly winds will affect the waters through tonight as low pressure and front affect the coastal Carolinas.

Tuesday through Friday...Seas and SE winds peak at the start of this period, with SCA thresholds continuing from the end of the previous period. The warm front lifts north of the area Tue morning followed by the cold frontal passage late Tue afternoon/evening. Winds to veer to the S once in the warm sector and to the SW after the CFP. Wind speeds will flirt with SCA thresholds during Tue but seas should remain SCA elevated but then slowly subside to below SCA thresholds possibly as early as Tue evening. The pinched gradient will be east and north of the area waters come Tue Night. Overall, looking at windspeeds diminishing to below SCA thresholds later Tue and further Tue night. By Wed thru Fri, looking at SW winds 5 to 15 kt, with the hier speeds nearshore each aftn/evening due to the sea breeze mechanics. The SE 7 to 9 second period swell will dominate pretty much for the upcoming week. Will peak Tue followed by a slow subsiding trend for the remainder of the period. SSW-SW wind chop may become more dominant by the end of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256.