Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 12:54 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 160550 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 817 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

On going forecast is on track and only tweaked a few things.
Mainly, nudged temps up a bit across the E for overnight and increasing high clouds, eventually some low stratus, and a decent pressure gradient will support more of a mid 60 type temps for MinT (63-67) with these readings more like 67 in the west to 63 in our east. Much of the forecast area will see low stratus by sunrise, but that should mix out by mid to late morning with a breezy Tue on tap. /CME/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered just north of the Four Corners region that will continue tracking east tonight then track northeast across the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This low pressure system will try to drop a cold front into our northwest most zones Tuesday evening but the ridging surface and aloft across our region will hang tough. Although deep moisture is expected to continue increasing over our CWA through Tuesday, the ridging surface and aloft has led to a rather suppressed cu field this afternoon east of the Mississippi river. As the low pressure system nears our CWA Tuesday, a breezy southeast to south wind is expected to develop.
This will help increase moisture enough to help support the development of a few showers and thunderstorms over our northwest most zones by late afternoon. Although a few strong storms can't be ruled out, the main focus for severe storm potential looks to remain just northwest of our CWA and wl drop mention of isolated severe storm potential going into Tuesday evening. The weak cold front will stall across northern Mississippi and there will be rain chances north of Interstate 20 through Tuesday night. Our CWA south of Interstate 20 will remain dry through the period. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period. /22/

Wednesday through next Tuesday: The extended forecast begins with a closed low trough digging into the Mid-West into the Ohio Valley region, bringing a weak frontal boundary along the Hwy 82 corridor and into the Golden Triangle Region by Wednesday morning.
This frontal boundary will quickly push out of NE MS, bringing dry conditions through the remainder of the day. By this time, mid-level zonal flow will increase across the Lower Mississippi Valley Region before a weak shortwave moved through Thursday afternoon. At the lower levels, a high pressure is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, which will build weak ridging into the CWA, allowing for shallow moisture to hang tight across the region. This will increase the potential for isolated showers and storms across the CWA, with the highest potential north of I-20, where only a scattered chance (25-35%) looks to exist through the end of the week. Temperatures will also be several degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the middle 60s.

By the weekend, another stronger shortwave will move into the region, stalling a boundary over central MS. This will allow for more widespread, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA on Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the front will push through, lowering temperatures 10-15 degrees from the previous week. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower 60s to lower 70s, but begin climbing into the lower 70s on Monday and lower 80s on Tuesday. Conditions will also dry out by Monday, allowing for a calm start to the next work week. /AJ/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A few southern TAF sites (HBG/PIB) will start off the TAF period under IFR conditions due to low cloud ceilings from now through 10Z Tuesday. Elsewhere, TAF sites will remain under VFR conditions and ceilings with SCT/BKN cirrus continuing to spread across central Mississippi to start off the TAF period. MVFR/IFR conditions will begin to develop through the overnight period as clouds continue to increase across the area between 10z-13z Tuesday. Ceilings will start improve slightly to MVFR status a little after 14z and will remain until 16z Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve by 17Z Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing into the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will remain to the south and will be breezy with gusty conditions peaking between 17-23z Tuesday. A brief period of low-level wind shear will occur at the MEI TAF site between 05-07z Wednesday. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 84 67 82 67 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 86 65 82 65 / 0 10 20 0 Vicksburg 85 68 84 68 / 10 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 84 65 84 66 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 85 68 84 68 / 10 10 0 0 Greenville 83 70 84 68 / 10 40 10 10 Greenwood 83 68 83 68 / 0 40 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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