Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guadalupe, AZ

SYNOPSIS
A weather system passing through the region will deliver below normal temperatures areawide today before warming back to near normal readings for the end of the workweek. Another dry weather system will sweep into the Southwest early next week yielding another round of gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Objective analysis this morning shows the trough that has led to gusty winds across the region over the past couple of days currently propagating eastward through the Intermountain West. Winds will be much lighter across the area today as gradients relax and the greater wind energy aloft shifts east. There will be some lingering gustiness that is expected to pick up later this morning across eastern portions of the state, including southern Gila County where gusts may climb upwards of 20-30 mph. Elsewhere across the forecast area, typical afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 15-25 mph at times can be expected. The more notable sensible weather for today will be the cooler temperatures that will prevail as the trough axis passes through Arizona with the main cold core remaining well north of the area. Forecast highs only top out in the mid to upper 80s for this afternoon across the lower deserts as 500 mb heights bottom out around 568-572 dm. However, these cooler than normal temperatures don't stick around for long as the trough ejects into the Plains later tonight with broad cyclonic/quasi- zonal flow prevailing across the southwest CONUS for the end of the workweek. Heights will gradually recover during this time and will allow for temperatures to return near normal readings Thursday as lower elevation highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Forecast uncertainty then increases as we head into the start of next week with the arrival of our next trough. Ensemble clusters reveal continued discrepancies amongst ensemble membership related to the the depth of the trough. This uncertainty is reflected in the NBM temperature IQR with a roughly 6-8 degree spread in high temperatures by Sunday. Regardless of these uncertainties, there is good agreement amongst ensembles that we will once again see below normal temperatures along with another period of strong winds. If current trends hold, Wind Advisories will likely be needed once again for this weekend, primarily across parts of Imperial County. Following the passage of this trough, there is decent ensemble agreement that ridging will begin to build into the region with temperatures returning near to above normal by the middle part of next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1605Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Winds will follow their typical diurnal tendencies through the TAF period. Current westerly winds will have their typical shift to easterly during the late evening/overnight hours, with a shift back westerly tomorrow afternoon. Wind speeds will be elevated this afternoon and early evening with some occasional gusts into the teens. Otherwise, wind speeds will generally be aob 8 kt.
Skies will be mostly clear.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds, at both TAF sites, will be northwesterly through the afternoon before going westerly this evening. Wind speeds at KIPL will generally be aob 10 kt. At KBLH, winds will gust into the teens through the majority of the afternoon, then afterwards speeds will decrease to aob 8 through the remainder of the period.
Skies will be mostly clear.

FIRE WEATHER
Weakening wind speeds and cooling temperatures will reduce the fire danger the next several days, however another incoming system will allow winds to strengthen again over the weekend. Under more typical springtime upslope gustiness with gusts up to 15-25 mph, minimum humidity values will fall into the 10-15% range the next several days following poor to fair overnight recovery of 25-50%. Gusty winds will materialize again this weekend with the next weather disturbance, however cooling temperatures and increased humidity levels may preclude widespread critical conditions. At this time, Saturday afternoon poses the greatest threat of an elevated fire danger.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.