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FXUS64 KBMX 042135 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 335 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CST MON DEC 4 2023

A dry cold front is currently moving through the area associated with a clipper system crossing the Southern Appalachians. Westerly winds and strong mixing have allowed temperatures to warm up nicely along and ahead of the front, with winds gusting to around 25 mph at times. High pressure briefly builds in tonight, resulting in calm winds and good radiational cooling conditions.
The southern edge of some wraparound stratocumulus could clip some of the far northern counties. Fog will be possible mainly near bodies of water across the north given the calm winds and low dew point depressions, depending on any cloudiness. Went on the cool side of guidance given the calm winds with a freeze across some of the far northern counties. Another clipper system moves through the Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys tomorrow within the eastern CONUS trough. Increased westerly winds ahead of the associated cold front will cause temperatures to warm above guidance tomorrow, similar to today.

32/Davis

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CST MON DEC 4 2023

No significant changes needed in the long term this afternoon, with the forecast remaining dry through at least Friday due to the influence of high pressure. Guidance continues to show a strong system impacting the area over the weekend, but model differences exist in timing and track of shortwave/surface low. These differences prevent inclusion of severe wording at this time.

14

Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CST MON DEC 4 2023

Northwest flow will persist on Wednesday, though a low-level ridge axis is progged to move into the region. High pressure will subsequently move to our east, allowing for southerly low-level flow to return to Central Alabama on Thursday. This will allow for appreciable warming through Friday with flow aloft becoming southwesterly. Medium-range guidance continues to project a substantial disturbance aloft set to move across the Central and Southern Plains toward the Mississippi River Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will foster cyclogenesis from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley. As such, a low-level jet will establish across the Gulf Coast and Deep South providing pre-frontal warm, moist advection. PoPs are on the increase across Central Alabama as a result. Thunderstorms are also possible given slightly better boundary layer conditions in latest guidance. We'll need to monitor for severe potential given the associated kinematics & dynamics aloft. Highest PoPs are Saturday night/Sunday morning.

40/Sizemore

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST MON DEC 4 2023

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A dry cold front is currently moving through the area with winds shifting to the northwest, gusting to 20 to 25 kts. Winds will become calm overnight. With low dew point depressions, will have to monitor for possible fog development especially near bodies of water, but probability is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

Note: ASN has been reporting some erroneous low visibilities at times.

32/Davis

FIRE WEATHER

Cool, dry conditions are forecast for the next few days as passing disturbances aloft bring reinforcing dry air to the area. The combination of slightly cooler air and slightly higher dewpoints Tuesday will keep afternoon RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range. 20ft winds remain out of the west at 6-10mph. Conditions remain rain-free this week, though a storm system is looking more likely this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 31 58 34 51 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 34 60 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 35 60 37 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 35 63 36 54 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 35 60 37 52 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 38 59 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 38 63 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 39 62 40 54 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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