Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sterrett, AL
April 28, 2025 2:14 PM CDT (19:14 UTC)
Change Location
Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 6:18 AM Moonset 8:59 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sterrett, AL
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KBMX 281814 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 114 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
The center of a surface high will be centered over the eastern coast, with a mid level ridge over the southeast. This will allow low and mid level flow out of the south and southeast, while upper level flow will be from the north and northwest. This afternoon, a weak shortwave type feature will move into the south and southeastern part of the state, with weak convergence possible.
Isolated showers may develop in the afternoon, but remain focused around I85 and south. Convection will be more diurnally driven, weakening after sunset.
Tuesday afternoon, convergence will be highest in the eastern part of the state with diurnally driven convection again possible through the afternoon. Coverage should be isolated, with movement of any activity slow. Included a slight chance for precip chances in the form of thunderstorms for now, with any activity producing heavy rainfall. PW values will be near max for this time of year with values around 1.2-1.3 inches.
High temperatures will be highly influenced by the cloud cover over the area this afternoon, with lower values in the east than areas with more clearing in the west. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be around the same values as today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, several degrees above normal for this time of year.
24
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
Main focus of the long term will be with the front on Thursday into Friday. There are still some timing issues to iron out as one solutions bring the front into the area Thursday afternoon, with a slower solutions Thursday night into Friday. Rain chances have been on the increase Thursday afternoon and Thursday, so look for that trend to continue. The front then stalls out of the area while a shortwave rides along the front. This will increase rain chances again of Friday into Friday night, before finally clearing out for the weekend. Continue to evaluate the potential for strong to even marginally severe storms as we draw closer, but will not mention in the HWO at this time due to the model timing issue.
Forecast wise though probabilities are improving for the system over the last few runs.
16
Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
The long-term forecast period will begin with very warm and above normal temperatures Wednesday as a very broad 500mb height anomaly will remain parked over much of the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge in the western Atlantic will continue to produce southerly flow and warm air/moisture advection over the region. Hot and almost muggy conditions can be expected as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.
Guidance continues to hint at a chance for a few isolated to scattered showers developing along and east of I-65 due to isentropic upglide and synoptic lift from subtle 500mb shortwave activity within southwesterly flow aloft.
The 500mb ridge will start to break down by Thursday as a shortwave impulse quickly ejects eastward from the Desert Southwest. Global guidance is still presenting subtle differences in the depth of the approaching shortwave and strength of the existing 500mb ridge. With the stronger ridge solution, the shortwave would be more removed to our northwest which would slow the timing of approaching showers and storms and keep the strongest 500mb jet outside of the forecast area. The GFS continues to be the more potent and unstable solution, bringing the 50 knot 500mb jet as far south as the I-22 corridor.
With 2500 SBCAPE, 0-6km bulk shear of at least 40 knots, 500mb temperatures of -14C, and a fairly straight hodograph with southwesterly flow across the profile would support a wind and hail threat. Even with the stronger GFS solution, the best chance for severe storms would exist across northern Mississippi and western/central Tennessee based on the current guidance runs. It would not surprise me one bit if SPC decided to introduce a Marginal Risk that would include the far northwest counties in the CWA at some point during the Day 2 or Day 3 Outlook time frames.
Regardless, numerous showers and storms will enter into western Alabama Thursday afternoon and spread southeastward through the evening hours. As 500mb support pulls off to the north along with the loss of daytime heating, coverage of showers and storms is advertised to diminish through daybreak Friday morning.
A longwave trough axis will quickly dive southeastward from the northern plains during the day on Friday, with a surface cold front approaching the Mississippi River Friday morning. Once again, the GFS presents a much deeper/sharper 500mb vort max moving across the Ohio Valley as compared with the ECMWF. Stronger upper support and colder air aloft would equal a better chance for strong to possibly severe storms developing out ahead of the cold front as it moves across Central Alabama Friday through Friday night. We're still a ways out, but that's another forecast target to keep an eye on.
A modified Continental Polar airmass is still on track to advect southward across the region by the weekend with much cooler overnight lows anticipated Saturday and Sunday morning. A new trend emerging in the long-range guidance this morning is for a quick shift to a west or southwest flow at 500mb Saturday night and into next Sunday morning with a shortwave approaching.
Additional clouds over the CWA along with low rain chances in our southwest counties would need to be added to the forecast during the day on Sunday if that trend continues. For now, we'll keep things dry with crisp temperatures in the low to mid 50s at daybreak and highs ranging from the upper 70s in Gadsden and Haleyville to the mid 80s in Troy and Eufaula.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
Low level moisture will be high with low and mid level flow from the south and southeast. MVFR ceilings are expected through the early afternoon at KANB, KASN, and KMGM, with clearing expected in the late afternoon and the evening before moisture causes MVFR ceilings through the morning. There could be clearing before the end of the TAF period at all sites, though confidence was too low to include VFR mention in a few areas tomorrow. This afternoon, MVFR ceilings could occur at KBHM and KEET, though there seems to be a distinct edge to the cloud deck over the southeast of the state. Right now, have left mention of MVFR ceilings out of each TAF this afternoon and will amend if necessary.
24
FIRE WEATHER
An overall warm and mostly rain-free pattern will continue through Wednesday. MinRH values will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with generally light 20ft winds between 5 and 10mph. 20ft winds will be from the southeast this afternoon and southerly on Tuesday.
Looking ahead toward Wednesday and Thursday, very warm and dry conditions are expected to materialize as RH values are forecast to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.
Driest air will be across eastern and southeastern Alabama by Thursday as 20ft winds begin to ramp up, with gusts approaching 20mph.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 60 84 61 86 / 0 20 0 20 Anniston 62 84 63 84 / 0 20 0 30 Birmingham 65 85 66 86 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 66 87 65 86 / 0 10 0 10 Calera 65 85 65 85 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 64 83 65 83 / 0 20 0 20 Montgomery 64 88 65 86 / 10 10 0 20 Troy 63 87 64 86 / 10 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 114 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
The center of a surface high will be centered over the eastern coast, with a mid level ridge over the southeast. This will allow low and mid level flow out of the south and southeast, while upper level flow will be from the north and northwest. This afternoon, a weak shortwave type feature will move into the south and southeastern part of the state, with weak convergence possible.
Isolated showers may develop in the afternoon, but remain focused around I85 and south. Convection will be more diurnally driven, weakening after sunset.
Tuesday afternoon, convergence will be highest in the eastern part of the state with diurnally driven convection again possible through the afternoon. Coverage should be isolated, with movement of any activity slow. Included a slight chance for precip chances in the form of thunderstorms for now, with any activity producing heavy rainfall. PW values will be near max for this time of year with values around 1.2-1.3 inches.
High temperatures will be highly influenced by the cloud cover over the area this afternoon, with lower values in the east than areas with more clearing in the west. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be around the same values as today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, several degrees above normal for this time of year.
24
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
Main focus of the long term will be with the front on Thursday into Friday. There are still some timing issues to iron out as one solutions bring the front into the area Thursday afternoon, with a slower solutions Thursday night into Friday. Rain chances have been on the increase Thursday afternoon and Thursday, so look for that trend to continue. The front then stalls out of the area while a shortwave rides along the front. This will increase rain chances again of Friday into Friday night, before finally clearing out for the weekend. Continue to evaluate the potential for strong to even marginally severe storms as we draw closer, but will not mention in the HWO at this time due to the model timing issue.
Forecast wise though probabilities are improving for the system over the last few runs.
16
Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
The long-term forecast period will begin with very warm and above normal temperatures Wednesday as a very broad 500mb height anomaly will remain parked over much of the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge in the western Atlantic will continue to produce southerly flow and warm air/moisture advection over the region. Hot and almost muggy conditions can be expected as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.
Guidance continues to hint at a chance for a few isolated to scattered showers developing along and east of I-65 due to isentropic upglide and synoptic lift from subtle 500mb shortwave activity within southwesterly flow aloft.
The 500mb ridge will start to break down by Thursday as a shortwave impulse quickly ejects eastward from the Desert Southwest. Global guidance is still presenting subtle differences in the depth of the approaching shortwave and strength of the existing 500mb ridge. With the stronger ridge solution, the shortwave would be more removed to our northwest which would slow the timing of approaching showers and storms and keep the strongest 500mb jet outside of the forecast area. The GFS continues to be the more potent and unstable solution, bringing the 50 knot 500mb jet as far south as the I-22 corridor.
With 2500 SBCAPE, 0-6km bulk shear of at least 40 knots, 500mb temperatures of -14C, and a fairly straight hodograph with southwesterly flow across the profile would support a wind and hail threat. Even with the stronger GFS solution, the best chance for severe storms would exist across northern Mississippi and western/central Tennessee based on the current guidance runs. It would not surprise me one bit if SPC decided to introduce a Marginal Risk that would include the far northwest counties in the CWA at some point during the Day 2 or Day 3 Outlook time frames.
Regardless, numerous showers and storms will enter into western Alabama Thursday afternoon and spread southeastward through the evening hours. As 500mb support pulls off to the north along with the loss of daytime heating, coverage of showers and storms is advertised to diminish through daybreak Friday morning.
A longwave trough axis will quickly dive southeastward from the northern plains during the day on Friday, with a surface cold front approaching the Mississippi River Friday morning. Once again, the GFS presents a much deeper/sharper 500mb vort max moving across the Ohio Valley as compared with the ECMWF. Stronger upper support and colder air aloft would equal a better chance for strong to possibly severe storms developing out ahead of the cold front as it moves across Central Alabama Friday through Friday night. We're still a ways out, but that's another forecast target to keep an eye on.
A modified Continental Polar airmass is still on track to advect southward across the region by the weekend with much cooler overnight lows anticipated Saturday and Sunday morning. A new trend emerging in the long-range guidance this morning is for a quick shift to a west or southwest flow at 500mb Saturday night and into next Sunday morning with a shortwave approaching.
Additional clouds over the CWA along with low rain chances in our southwest counties would need to be added to the forecast during the day on Sunday if that trend continues. For now, we'll keep things dry with crisp temperatures in the low to mid 50s at daybreak and highs ranging from the upper 70s in Gadsden and Haleyville to the mid 80s in Troy and Eufaula.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
Low level moisture will be high with low and mid level flow from the south and southeast. MVFR ceilings are expected through the early afternoon at KANB, KASN, and KMGM, with clearing expected in the late afternoon and the evening before moisture causes MVFR ceilings through the morning. There could be clearing before the end of the TAF period at all sites, though confidence was too low to include VFR mention in a few areas tomorrow. This afternoon, MVFR ceilings could occur at KBHM and KEET, though there seems to be a distinct edge to the cloud deck over the southeast of the state. Right now, have left mention of MVFR ceilings out of each TAF this afternoon and will amend if necessary.
24
FIRE WEATHER
An overall warm and mostly rain-free pattern will continue through Wednesday. MinRH values will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with generally light 20ft winds between 5 and 10mph. 20ft winds will be from the southeast this afternoon and southerly on Tuesday.
Looking ahead toward Wednesday and Thursday, very warm and dry conditions are expected to materialize as RH values are forecast to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.
Driest air will be across eastern and southeastern Alabama by Thursday as 20ft winds begin to ramp up, with gusts approaching 20mph.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 60 84 61 86 / 0 20 0 20 Anniston 62 84 63 84 / 0 20 0 30 Birmingham 65 85 66 86 / 0 10 0 20 Tuscaloosa 66 87 65 86 / 0 10 0 10 Calera 65 85 65 85 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 64 83 65 83 / 0 20 0 20 Montgomery 64 88 65 86 / 10 10 0 20 Troy 63 87 64 86 / 10 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPLR ST CLAIR COUNTY,AL | 16 sm | 19 min | var 06G13 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 30.21 | |
| KBHM BIRMINGHAMSHUTTLESWORTH INTL,AL | 18 sm | 21 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 66°F | 58% | 30.19 | |
| KSCD MERKEL FIELD SYLACAUGA MUNI,AL | 19 sm | 19 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 77°F | 66°F | 69% | 30.21 | |
| KEET SHELBY COUNTY,AL | 22 sm | 21 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 66°F | 62% | 30.17 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBHM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBHM
Wind History Graph: BHM
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southeast
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