Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sterrett, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:40PM Sunday August 9, 2020 6:08 AM CDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 11:27AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sterrett, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 090848 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 348 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020/

Through Monday.

A fairly typical summer day on tap for today. Overall we have a large ridge to our west, and several areas of high pressure surrounding us. The stationary boundary that has been migrating throughout the area will lift today as a warm front. This will allow a little bit better of a focus for the development of scattered showers/storms in the northeast this afternoon. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will build in from the south. This will increase the southerly flow in the south and will likely push a sea-breeze northward into the area late afternoon/early evening. Have increased PoPs here as well for late afternoon/early evening. Really expect this to possibly continue through 8 to 9 pm so continued the scattered wording into the evening. With the warm front lifting there will be an increase in temperatures especially in the west. Surface readings will get into the upper 90s in the west to the mid 90s in the northeast. It will definitely be a warm one and a few areas will approach the 105 heat index reading needed for a heat advisory. However, most indications are that this will be generally spotty, so there is not enough coverage to warrant an advisory at this time for today.

As the warm front lifts north of the area and stretches up to Missouri/Iowa, we will be in a northwest flow aloft. This is our typical flow for MCS development. So we will need to watch for the development late this afternoon/evening. A good consensus of the models develop a MCS and bring it close to/into the northeast late morning or at least a remnant of the MCS. The exact placement will extremely critical in regards of what could occur from lunchtime Monday through Monday afternoon. For now, the consensus is to bring the MCS outflow into the northeast and then spread south and west through the afternoon around the high pressure set up to our west. Will also need to monitor for stronger storms Monday afternoon, with the outflow as it moves through. There will be plenty of instability available as the storms tap into the warm airmass.

If the MCS/outflow comes into the area with more of the morning time frame, then temperatures will be difficult to reach the mid to upper 90s, thus a heat advisory will not be needed. If the MCS go more into Georgia or is a few hours slower than forecast then a heat advisory may be needed for the entire area. With the given uncertainties in the path and overall timing will continue to mention in the HWO with low confidence for now. At this time though the best chances for reaching the 105 criteria would be in the southwest, where the best moisture will combine with the warmest readings.

16

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020/

Tuesday through Saturday.

Models are in general agreement for Tuesday, indicating a small shortwave ridge over the forecast are which could suppress convection through much of the day. However, by late afternoon into the evening, a remnant boundary from Monday's convection could be come active once again with thunderstorm development. Placement of this feature is difficult to predict at this time.

From a broader perspective, there is a clear signal for depressed 500 mb heights across the Deep South for Wednesday through Saturday. With PWAT values hovering between 1.8 and 2.1 inches, plenty of moisture will be available for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Afternoon high temperatures may gradually trend downward through the forecast period due to an increase cloud cover and rainfall.

87/Grantham

AVIATION. 06Z TAF Discussion.

Some patchy MVFR fog already at a few locations and possible at a few others. Isolated activity again this afternoon, with the best chance in southeast. Included a prob30 for TOI and MGM. Activity may increase on Monday for all of the area, but will be detailed in the next 2 discussions.

16

FIRE WEATHER.

Afternoon minimum relative humidity values should remain above 35 percent today. Scattered showers and storms will also be possible. Moisture and rain chances will trend upward through midweek. Winds will be light through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 94 71 93 72 93 / 40 20 60 20 50 Anniston 95 72 93 73 94 / 40 20 60 20 50 Birmingham 95 74 94 75 94 / 40 20 60 20 50 Tuscaloosa 97 74 97 75 95 / 30 20 40 20 50 Calera 95 72 94 73 93 / 40 20 50 20 50 Auburn 93 72 94 73 93 / 30 20 60 20 50 Montgomery 96 75 96 75 96 / 30 20 50 20 50 Troy 95 74 95 74 94 / 30 20 50 20 50

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL18 mi76 minNNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1020 hPa
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport, AL22 mi76 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F96%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHM

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE33W444W434N7N4W5W4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3
1 day agoCalmNW4NE4SE4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNW10NW6SW9CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS6W5W6NW5NE6SE14
G19
E4E3N7N4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.