Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sterrett, AL

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 5:49PM Sunday March 7, 2021 9:12 PM CST (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:12AMMoonset 1:10PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sterrett, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 080013 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 613 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

UPDATE. For 00Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 1135 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/ Through Monday.

Very few changes were necessary regarding the short-term forecast as things are currently on track as we approach midday. The very dry northeasterly flow at the surface continues to dominate the pattern over the Southeast. Dew points were currently running in the 20s with a few upper teens across far eastern counties. The dry air will allow temps to rise well into the 60s areawide this afternoon. We've had a few gusty winds out there today, but overall winds haven't been quite as strong across the area as we observed yesterday.

We'll see more radiational cooling once again tonight, with mostly calm and clear conditions. Much like last night, areas that are allowed to decouple will see frost or freeze conditions. Our big warm up will begin on Monday as upper heights will be on the increase and the surface ridge will be centered off to our east. Southerly flow at the surface with lingering dry air will allow the airmass to heat very well, and we'll stay on the higher end of guidance in terms of afternoon highs. We'll likely see an abundance of lower 70s across much of Central Alabama under mostly sunny skies.

56/GDG

LONG TERM. /Updated at 343 PM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/

No major changes were made to the extended with no mentioned rain chances through Friday. The dry trend continues with rain pushing back some. Low rain chances return on Saturday across the north and west ahead of an approaching frontal system. A warming trend will continue through Friday. Clouds do return Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging weakens and onshore flow returns through the end of the work week.

08

Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 321 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/ Tuesday through Saturday.

Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the upcoming week.

High pressure will persist across the region Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to synoptic subsidence and, therefore, rain- free conditions. The drier air mass that has been in place will continue to allow for slightly larger diurnal temperature swings than we typically see - lows in the 40s with highs in the 70s.

The center of the high pressure system will shift eastward Wednesday into Thursday as a trough digs southward along the Pacific Coast. This shift in the high will allow for more southerly flow across our region, leading to a slight increase in moisture. However, the flow is largely off the Atlantic and never crosses a significant fetch of the Gulf, so our dewpoints will likely stay in the 50s through the end of the week.

The trough across the Western CONUS develops into a cut-off low and progresses eastward very slowly through the end of the week. Model guidance has not shown much consistency at all with the timing and evolution of this upper low and trough. Latest deterministic runs bring in broad ridging in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday, which would act to deflect any shortwaves ejecting from the trough northward, keeping any significant rain changes north and west of Central AL. With that said, models continue to try to bring some rain into the area toward the end of the extended, but with each model run, the timing is pushed back, so I'll once again include low chance (15-20%) PoPs for the day 7 period (Saturday) and reduce any rain chances we had for Friday. I would expect this to change again as models come into better agreement. Our warmest days will likely be Thursday or Friday with high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

25/Owen

AVIATION. 00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Surface high pressure will slowly settle over the state the next 24 hours. Winds will drop quickly to light or calm overnight. On Monday, winds will be light and variable for the most part. Some of the southern and western sites may experience winds east to southeast by periods end but still light.

75

FIRE WEATHER.

Min RHs through Monday afternoon is forecast to be near or just below 20%; however, if sufficient mixing occurs or if temperatures warm even a few degrees above what's forecast, the RHs could drop even lower. KBDI's are below 300 with 20 foot winds 7 mph or less, so no red flag products are anticipated. Gradual increase in moisture is expected Tuesday through Friday as we see more of a southerly flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 30 69 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Anniston 32 70 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 34 71 40 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 35 72 40 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Calera 34 71 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Auburn 35 69 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 35 72 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 36 72 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL18 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair45°F28°F52%1031.7 hPa
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport, AL22 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair46°F27°F47%1030.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHM

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N8N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE12NE13
G16
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1 day agoN9N5N4CalmN7NE4N9N6N4N6NE8NE11N10N10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE6NE7NE8NE34NE7N13
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N13NE9N7N10N10N9N6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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