Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sterrett, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:14PM Monday January 27, 2020 9:35 PM CST (03:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sterrett, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 280015 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 615 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

UPDATE. For 00Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0322 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

Clouds were a bit slow to decrease today, but once they did, temperatures warmed rather nicely across the northwest. Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s in those counties and generally mid 50s elsewhere.

High pressure will continue to build into the area with northeasterly low level flow bringing in a drier airmass. With the current ground moisture, some combination of low clouds/fog is expected overnight. Due to uncertainties in potential low cloud coverage, will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now. However, will continue to mention areas of fog in the HWO. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s with slightly less than ideal radiational cooling conditions. But, if there are any localized areas in the north that experience near clear skies with calm winds, temperatures could approach the freezing mark. Trends will have to be monitored closely for any freezing fog potential.

The fog/low clouds should lift by 9 to 11 am Tuesday morning with mostly sunny skies expected through the day. Highs will be in the mid 50s north to low 60s south.

19

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

Yet another mid/upper-level system will begin to eject across the Southern Plains and enter the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday evening. This disturbance will signal increasing PoPs from the west as light rain begins to overspread the Deep South via moist isentropic ascent and broad upper-level diffluence downstream of the shortwave. The initial onset of rain may remain quite light and isolated until the lower troposphere becomes more saturated, similar in behavior to the last system, however. Better PoPs are forecast later into Wednesday morning and afternoon as better lift and moisture become available. More moderate & showery rainfall is possible across the south during this time, though totals still likely remain ~0.50" or less. A decreasing trend in coverage and intensity of rain is expected by Wednesday night with expected NVA and drier northerly low-level flow, though some light rain or patchy drizzle can't be ruled out across the east into early Thursday morning.

Model guidance has really struggled in handling the nature of these passing shortwaves, and other subsequent and smaller scale surface features. Latest runs have slowed this system down a bit, thus the later trend in exiting rainfall over previously advertised. Guidance is also progging two separate vort maxes with this disturbance, an eastward moving southern stream feature associated with the primary shortwave trough, and a second south- southeast moving feature associated with the broad/complex northern stream. These two features lend little forecast confidence on exact timing/intensity of rain on Wednesday, and can also yield separate areas of rain activity. Regardless, introduced likely PoPs across the south where best moisture and lift appear likely. Elsewhere, a higher PoP/low QPF forecast could be advertised, but aforementioned uncertainties limited this notion for now.

Thursday through Sunday.

Dry weather should hold in place for Thursday with confluent flow aloft and northerly low-level flow across the Deep South. However, the active pattern will continue, and by Friday morning, offer our next chance for rain across Central Alabama. The mid/upper-level trough responsible for this event still appears to be more significant in terms of spatial extent, yielding a positively tilted axis from the Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains. However, there's too many inconsistencies amongst guidance to provide specific details to the nature of this rain event. Run-to-run trends are becoming a little more zonal and farther south, along with deterministic solutions suggesting a bifurcation of mid-level vorticity maxima, thus offering separate areas of surface features. A conservative PoP forecast was maintained with PoPs <40% once again. With the sub-tropical jet hanging on to its overall position, it's certainly likely most activity (including convection) remains offshore or along the Gulf Coast. Drier weather is expected on Sunday as the system exits to the east.

40/Sizemore

AVIATION. 00Z TAF Discussion.

Model output was nearly 50/50 concerning the potential of low clouds and fog. Some of the most recent solutions have leaned toward slightly drier conditions north, compared to sounding south. The forecast will also lean that direction. VFR conditions are still anticipated a majority of the time period, but some LIFR ceilings and fog will be present after 06z and through 1530z. Hit MGM/TOI the hardest with a saturated layer at least 004 feet thick indicated near surface. As you travel northward, the mean moisture included surface was lesser. We will see how the ground conditions, cooling and recent rainfall have on this equation. Anyway, EET/TCL/ASN/ANB are at the next level of fog where no ceilings were mentioned just yet, and BHM the least impacted. Will monitor closely this evening for hints at how much the restrictionswill be and how widespread.

75

FIRE WEATHER.

Clearing skies and calm winds are expected by the evening. With lingering surface-layer moisture in place, a mixture of fog and low clouds is expected later tonight into Tuesday morning. Frequent periods of light rain and seasonable temperatures will help maintain relative humidity values above 40% into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 34 56 39 49 36 / 0 0 20 50 30 Anniston 34 59 40 52 37 / 0 0 20 50 30 Birmingham 37 59 42 52 39 / 0 0 20 50 20 Tuscaloosa 38 61 44 53 40 / 0 0 30 60 20 Calera 36 60 42 52 38 / 0 0 20 50 20 Auburn 37 59 41 54 39 / 0 0 10 60 20 Montgomery 37 62 43 56 40 / 0 0 10 60 10 Troy 39 62 42 56 41 / 0 0 10 60 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL18 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1017.4 hPa
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport, AL22 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair43°F39°F89%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHM

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmSW4S4S3S3SW3SW4SW4W3W5W4W7NW8NW11NW8Calm3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmS4SE4S7S6SE4S4S4SE4S4
2 days agoW9W6W7W8W9W8W5W4W5W5W8NW6NW8NW6NW8W8N85N6N6N4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.