Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Tempe, AZ

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:09PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 9:43 AM MST (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:45PMMoonset 11:18AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tempe, AZ
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location: 33.45, -112.03     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 211130
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
430 am mst Wed aug 21 2019

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Excessive heat with record high temperatures is expected again
today across south central arizona into southeast california with
only very isolated thunderstorms over far eastern gila county.

Moisture will return by Thursday morning to begin a gradual
cooling trend and bring isolated thunderstorms back into the
forecast for south central arizona Thursday through Saturday, with
the best chances over pinal and gila counties. A gradual warming
trend will begin on Sunday and continue into the first half of
next week with minimal rain chances.

An elongated, zonally-oriented subtropical ridge at mid-to-upper
levels stretches from just off the coast of california into
oklahoma, with its center along the new mexico-arizona border.

This is continuing to promote dry and clear conditions that are
allowing for efficient radiational cooling once again this evening
into the upper 70s and 80s across the lower deserts despite our
excessive heat in the afternoons. Although h500 heights are
expected to decrease slightly from yesterday's 593-594 dm values
as the ridge center shifts west and consolidates off the coast of
baja california, h850 temperatures that were around 31 deg c over
south central arizona and 28-30 deg c over southeast california
will increase slightly today. This will allow temperatures to
increase 1-2 deg f relative to yesterday over south central
arizona with more significant warming of 3-5 deg f over southwest
arizona and southeast california. Therefore, the excessive heat
warning remains in effect for much of south central and southwest
arizona along with southeast california as temperatures warm up
into the 112 to 116 deg f range for most desert locations with
isolated hotter temperatures in southeast california. This will
easily shatter the 110 degree record for phoenix set in 2007, and
will challenge the 115 degree record in yuma set in 1969.

A cooling trend will begin on Thursday as significant increase in
southwest-moving convection over the sierra madres causes a
moisture surge that moves up the gulf of california into the
lower deserts of both southeast california and arizona. This
should end our excessive heat episode as temperatures generally
stay below 110 degrees in the phoenix metro and 112 degrees over
southwest arizona and southeast california. Additional cooling
will occur on Friday and Saturday to get temperatures closer to
normals in the lower to mid 100s as repeated gulf surges maintain
moisture over the region as an inverted trough moves northwest
through the gulf of california to trigger additional convection
over the sierra madres into sonora and even southern arizona. At
the same time, a weak shortwave disturbance from the west will
move into the great basin and colorado river valley for Thursday
evening into Friday. Although an outflow boundary and or the
westerly shortwave might be able to trigger a rogue convective
cell late Thursday into Friday, midlevel stability aloft left
behind by the ridge of high pressure should suppress thunderstorm
development and only allow for 10 pops or less with better
chances closer to tucson.

Rain chances for Friday afternoon through Saturday evening also do
not look very promising as the inverted trough moving northwest
over the gulf of california meet resistance from the subtropical
ridge as it gradually builds back in from the northwest. Although
we should see at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of eastern arizona on Friday and Saturday,
northerly steering flow on the eastern edge of the subtropical
ridge will most likely keep outflows and storms away from the
lower deserts and the phoenix metro. In addition, there is more
confidence among the model ensemble that a tropical cyclone that is
expected to develop in the east pacific over the next 24-48
hours will remain parallel to, but several hundred miles west of
baja california into the weekend. Thus, any chance we had of the
inverted trough associated with this system from impinging upon
this ridge appears to be pretty bleak. Although the operational
gfs remains a notable outlier, less than 20 percent of the gefs
ensembles and even fewer ecm ensembles have any measurable
rainfall for the phoenix metro. Therefore, we have kept pops at or
below 10 percent for Friday and Saturday for most areas with
10-20 pops over portions of pinal and gila counties. These
minimal rainfall chances should end by Sunday as the ridge
reasserts itself over the region.

Despite the presence of an elongated ridge over the desert
southwest through the first half of next week, rich monsoonal
moisture will continue to remain positioned southward across
northwest mexico. Although the gradual rise in heights aloft will
increase high temperatures back into the upper 100s and suppress
convection through subsidence associated with the ridge, this
moisture should keep temperatures just below excessive heat
thresholds. Models continue to indicate that a more significant
moisture increase could occur during the second half of next week,
with some potential for relatively strong dynamics associated with
an inverted trough that splits off a relatively strong trough and
frontal system moving through the eastern two-thirds of the u.S.

On Wednesday into Thursday. Although confidence this far out is
still low, both the GEFS and ecm ensembles show better rain
chances for the second half of next week that may try to help keep
us from having the driest monsoon season on record for phoenix.

Aviation Updated at 1130 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
few aviation concerns are expected through the period under clear
skies. Winds will largely favor typical diurnal patterns although
with a slightly earlier than normal westerly switchover. In
addition breezy to very breezy conditions will start by early
afternoon with westerly wind gusts of 18-24kt through the early
evening. There will also be periods of light and variable wind
conditions during the morning and night. The only convection today
will be confined to far southeast to east az with no local effects

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
few aviation concerns are expected through the period under clear
skies. Winds will favor typical diurnal sequences although expect
some westerly sundowner wind gusts near 19-24kt during the evening
hours at kipl and some breezy southwesterly winds gusting to 20kt
at kblh. There will also be periods of light and variable wind
conditions during the morning and night.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
elevated moisture levels will allow for isolated thunderstorms
over primarily pinal and gila counties with minimal chances for
most of maricopa county including the phoenix metro. This increase
in moisture will also allow temperatures to return closer to
seasonal normals Friday through the weekend. Thunderstorm chances
will decrease on Sunday through the first half of next week as
temperatures warm back up several degrees above normal as high
pressure rebuilds over the southwest. Aside from values in the
teens on Friday over southeast california, minimum relative
humidity values will generally be in the 20 to 30 percent range
through Sunday before dropping back into the teens for most areas
on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns
on Friday before westerlies generally prevail across the south
central arizona zones for the weekend into early next week with
afternoon and early evening gustiness each day.

Record high temperatures
date phoenix yuma
---- ------- ----
aug 21 110 in 2007 115 in 1969
aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969
aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm mst this evening for

Ca... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for

Excessive heat warning from 11 am this morning to 8 pm pdt this
evening for caz560.

Discussion... Hopper
aviation... Sawtelle
fire weather... Hopper rogers
climate... Rogers kuhlman mo

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ1 mi1.9 hrsSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds91°F45°F20%1006.7 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ13 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair89°F44°F21%1007.5 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ15 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds90°F46°F22%1010.2 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ16 mi1.8 hrsN 310.00 miFair93°F44°F18%1007.1 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds88°F48°F25%1009.8 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair93°F39°F16%1007.4 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi1.9 hrsVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds88°F41°F19%1009.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi1.8 hrsNE 410.00 miFair91°F41°F18%1007.5 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ22 mi1.9 hrsESE 810.00 miA Few Clouds90°F44°F21%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE64CalmCalmW7W7
1 day agoE4E3W3W56W10SW9W8W7W9W6CalmSW4W3CalmSW4W4E4CalmSE3SE4SE5SE6E6
2 days agoCalm4SE5S434S4N5N7NE6E7E5CalmE3CalmE8E5E6SE3E5E3E5E54

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.