Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:35AM||Sunset 7:33PM||Monday July 26, 2021 11:56 PM MST (06:56 UTC)||Moonrise 9:48PM||Moonset 8:13AM||Illumination 91%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tempe, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 270539 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1039 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021
SYNOPSIS. A low pressure system will lift out of SE California today with additional showers and locally heavy rainfall sweeping through areas west of the Colorado River. As this system exits the region, much warmer and drier weather will temporarily return through the middle of the week. Another wave of low pressure may affect the region during the end of the week bringing a return to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
DISCUSSION. Monday will end on a relatively quiet note compared to recent days. The 00z KPSR sounding was a welcomed sight to see with limited instability over south-central Arizona. Farther west, a few cells were able to develop over La Paz county, forming along a cooling midlevel boundary collocated with a protruding tongue of higher precipitable water values. While not overly impressive on radar, these storms were efficient rain producers. MRMS estimates a bullseye of 0.50 to 1.50" of rain fell in one area prompting a flash flood warning covering numerous low water crossings and remote development in flood prone areas.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. This afternoon feels rather benign compared to the past few days. The upper low which was the primary driver of showers and storms the last few days has become an open wave and lifted northwest out of the area within the flow between a closed low over the EPAC and the broad high over the Intermountain West. Moisture levels are trending down, but PWATs are still above normal for this time of year with values in excess of 1.5". With the return of ample sunshine and warmer temperature, scattered convective cumulus have developed across the region. Most are cumulus humulis struggling with vertical development, likely due to the developing capping inversion as drier 700 mb air works up from the south and the lack of dynamic forcing. Still, there have been isolated showers and storms popping up in a few areas, like south of I-8 near Gila Bend, La Paz county, and along the SoCal mountains. 12Z HREF has a handled the convection well so far and continues to favor these areas for additional convection through the rest of the afternoon, in addition to a few other locations. NBM PoPs most places across the CWA are less than 10% this afternoon. Any isolated storm will still be capable of heavy rain that may lead to localized flash flooding.
Without the rain and clouds, temperatures in south-central AZ have returned above 90 degrees for the first time since Thursday. Temperatures are expected to continue to rise the next couple of days, returning to near normal across the CWA by Wednesday.
Although the expansion and strengthening of subtropical high pressure over the central Rockies/plains will promote further warming aloft and drying towards the top of the boundary layer, models still indicate high terrain storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. NBM PoPs are low, <10%, for the lower deserts, but some CAMs suggest outflow boundaries and showers possibly descending into lower elevations in the evening. HREF probability of greater than 35 mph winds is upwards of around 50-60% in Pinal county Tuesday afternoon. While this normally may be a signal for potential blowing dust impacts, all the recent rains may limit the dust potential tomorrow. Otherwise, moisture will have likely thinned from the boundary layer by Wednesday and more typical monsoon temperatures and overall conditions should return.
Operational and ensemble membership continue in remarkable agreement dislodging a closed low currently over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and propagating this feature up the Rio Grande Valley into SE Arizona. While the initial impact with respect to increased ascent for thunderstorm development could arrive as early as Thursday with the typical high terrain storms and lower elevation outflow winds, there is resounding evidence Friday could be a very convectively active day into larger population centers. NBM POPs are already keying in on this time frame with 50% chances though much of Arizona on this day 5 forecast. While not quite as anomalous as the weather system currently exiting the region, there are indications this next feature may be somewhat more dynamic than the typical monsoon easterly wave. Both the depth of the PV anomaly and jet streak introduced by this wave appear more robust than the average monsoon inverted trough. Moisture availability should not be an issue and likely just the mesoscale evolutionary details may dictate the precise areas in the region that experience the most intense impacts. And this active weather may continue through the entire weekend with the aforementioned wave only slowly lifting through the state.
AVIATION. Updated at 0530Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The westerlies are hanging on for a few more hours but directions will generally follow typical diurnal trends through Tuesday afternoon. There are growing indications for more widespread thunderstorm development south of the terminal area Tuesday afternoon and evening. The chance for storms in the terminal area is low, 10% or less, but there is a 50% chance for some sort of southerly outflow to reach the terminals (SSW to SSE). Best window for outflows is between 02-04z Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns through this TAF period with mostly southerly to southeasterly winds through the forecast period.
FIRE WEATHER. Thursday through Monday: With temperatures much closer to normal, somewhat drier midweek weather with just isolated high terrain storms will potentially return back to more widespread stormy, wet weather by the weekend. Thunderstorm chances in the eastern districts increase better than 50% with a returning threat of heavy rainfall as early as Thursday. These heightened storm chances spread westward later in the week. Otherwise, minimum afternoon humidity values will range from 15-35% during the middle of the week and closer to 20-45% into the weekend. Overnight recovery will be mostly good to excellent in a 40-80% range. Apart from thunderstorms, winds will favor typical daily upslope/drainage patterns.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . AD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Benedict/18 AVIATION . AD FIRE WEATHER . 18
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Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||1 mi||65 min||N 4||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||92°F||62°F||37%||1010.8 hPa|
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||13 mi||63 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||87°F||67°F||51%||1011.8 hPa|
|Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ||15 mi||4.1 hrs||Var 3||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||93°F||63°F||36%||1012.2 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||16 mi||62 min||NE 3||10.00 mi||Fair||87°F||65°F||48%||1011.3 hPa|
|Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ||17 mi||3.2 hrs||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||91°F||61°F||36%||1013.2 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||17 mi||63 min||ENE 4||10.00 mi||Fair||85°F||68°F||57%||1011.6 hPa|
|Goodyear Municipal, AZ||19 mi||3.2 hrs||N 0||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||91°F||64°F||41%||1012.2 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||20 mi||60 min||NW 5||10.00 mi||Fair||86°F||70°F||58%||1011.5 hPa|
|Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ||22 mi||66 min||Var 3||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||86°F||70°F||59%||1014.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPHX
Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||E||E||E||E||SE||SW||Calm||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||S||SE||SE||SE||S||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||E |
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