Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tempe, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:23PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:16 PM MST (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 10:33AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tempe, AZ
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location: 33.45, -112.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 152214 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 314 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cooler temperatures and windy conditions are expected today behind a cold front that has moved through the region. The coldest temperatures so far this winter are expected tonight and tomorrow night as they drop to around freezing over portions of Gila County and Joshua Tree National Park in southeast California. Another dry frontal system will pass through the region on Wednesday into Thursday before temperatures increase several degrees above normal for Friday into next weekend as high pressure briefly builds back in over the Desert Southwest.

DISCUSSION. Cooler temperatures have arrived as advertised behind a cold front as most lower desert locations across south central Arizona are warming up into the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60s over southeast California and southwest Arizona. Wind gusts up to 25 mph will continue over the lower deserts for the next few hours with gusts up to 30 mph over Gila County until gradually subsiding after sunset during the evening and overnight hours. Although there will be some mixing overnight, clear skies combined with this cooler air mass will allow most lower desert spots in south central and southwest Arizona to cool into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees, with lower to mid 40s over southeast California and Yuma. High temperatures tomorrow will only warm up into the lower 60s under clear skies and lighter winds than today.

Most of the region will experience the coolest temperatures of this winter season so far by Tuesday morning as clear skies will help promote efficient radiational cooling. However, model guidance has stopped trending colder for Tuesday morning, most likely due to enhanced mixing overnight associated with a fast- moving secondary shortwave moving in from the north-northwest as the broader longwave trough exits the region. This will help encourage an enhanced surface pressure gradient on the fringes of a 1052 mb surface high over northwest Colorado that should keep northeasterly winds elevated over at least south central Arizona. This will result in a downsloping component over northern and eastern Maricopa County that should keep those spots above freezing in the mid to upper 30s with just enough mixing to most likely keep most rural lower desert locations from experiencing a freeze. Although a freeze is possible for isolated lower desert locations, particularly in La Paz and northern Pinal Counties, it will generally be confined to higher terrain locations in Gila County and Joshua Tree National Park in southeast California.

A brief period of ridging aloft will help temperatures increase a couple degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday before yet another fast- moving shortwave and dry front moves through the region Wednesday into Thursday. However, cloud cover and enhanced mixing associated with this disturbance should prevent a drop in temperatures on Wednesday night, with high temperatures on Thursday only decreasing a couple degrees. Relatively strong ridging is expected to develop aloft behind this shortwave on Friday into the weekend as a relatively deep trough over the Northern Pacific Ocean digs south. This will allow temperatures to warm back up above normal by Friday and several degrees above normal for the weekend with highs most likely in the lower to mid 70s for most lower desert locations. Ensemble model guidance continues to show increasing chances of precipitation at some point during the first half of next week. However, the timing of the best precipitation chances has been pushed back to Christmas Eve or Christmas for now as most ensemble clusters depict a longer storm track associated with a progressive cutoff low developing off the coast of southern California and Baja California before ejecting northeastward.

AVIATION. Updated at 1818Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

A weak weather system passing through today will bring with it some breezy conditions for this afternoon. Wind speeds sustained around 10-15 kts are expected for the afternoon hours before decreasing to less than 10 kts by early this evening. Can't rule out a few gusts upwards of 20 kts this afternoon but not confident enough to make any mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, cloud decks should remain aoa 6 kft for the afternoon along with some passing high clouds.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon with sustained wind speeds upwards of 15 kts and gusts to around 20 kts. Gusts taper off early this evening with wind speeds falling below 10 kts. Otherwise, a few cloud bases aoa 6 kft will be possible at KIPL this afternoon along with a few passing clouds.

FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Overall, conditions will remain dry. RH values will be the lowest Tuesday and Wednesday, 15-25%, and improve to 25-35% thereafter. Overnight recovery will struggle Tue/Wed into the 35-50% range but will be much better in the 50-75% range the rest of the week. Winds will generally be light although Tue/Wed may see a few afternoon and evening breezes between 10-20 mph. Directions will generally favor typical diurnal trends.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Hopper AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . Deems


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ1 mi26 minW 1910.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy64°F23°F21%1010.8 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ13 mi24 minW 11 G 1610.00 miFair63°F26°F25%1011 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ15 mi82 minSW 11 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds64°F23°F21%1012.5 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ16 mi23 minWSW 1110.00 miFair62°F28°F29%1010.6 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi30 minWSW 10 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds63°F26°F25%1012.5 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi24 minW 1410.00 miFair62°F25°F24%1010.9 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi30 minW 15 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds64°F24°F22%1012.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi79 minW 1110.00 mi65°F22°F20%0 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ22 mi27 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F26°F25%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3E3N7N5N3CalmE4E5E5E8E4CalmCalmCalmE4E6CalmS3CalmW5W13W12SW13
G18
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1 day agoNW3W3SW3SW3CalmSE3E6E6E4E4E6E4E5SE4E5E5E5E6E6E6SE5S4CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4SW4CalmW4NW4SW3CalmE5E7E5E5E3NE5SE5E6E5SE7E6E43S4Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.