Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tempe, AZ

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday January 23, 2021 11:16 AM MST (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:38PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tempe, AZ
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location: 33.45, -112.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 231259 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 559 AM MST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. An active pattern featuring a series of storm systems will bring chances for rain, high elevation snowfall, and much cooler temperatures over the next several days. The first storm system will move through the area today and tomorrow, followed by a second colder storm system Monday and Tuesday. Desert highs will drop into the low to mid 50s as early as Sunday.

DISCUSSION. Like many of the past several early mornings, isolated light showers have developed over portions of the Phoenix area. These showers will trek eastward into Gila County through the early morning hours. Overall, the night has been fairly pleasant with temperatures still in the mid to upper 50s for most areas. For future perspective, Phoenix-Sky Harbor is currently 57 degrees, a temperature reading that could end up warmer than our many of our highs after today.

The next several days are on track to be the most active weather wise so far this winter with multiple shortwaves sweeping through the region producing multiple periods of precipitation. The first shortwave, currently over the NV/AZ border, is providing decent dynamics for showers and thunderstorms but most of those will remain well to our north over the Great Basin. However, a more dynamically impressive shortwave moving behind that wave will drop into Arizona today and Sunday creating the first main period for precipitation. This shortwave will reinforce upper level troughing over the Southwest, and then with subsequent embedded waves to follow, will produce another period of precipitation Monday- Wednesday morning.

For today, guidance remains relatively quiet regarding chances for showers and thunderstorms through most of the daylight hours today. Isolated showers, such as what is currently occurring, cannot be ruled out later this morning and afternoon. However, ensemble guidance indicates the peak window for shower development and coverage will begin this evening and last well into Sunday evening as the aforementioned dynamically strong shortwave digs southward into Arizona. For the Saturday-Sunday period, the NBM Rainfall probabilities show nearly all areas east of the western Maricopa County line having a 100% chance for at least measurable rainfall (0.01") and around 70-90% chance for receiving at least 0.25 inch. The probabilities for higher rainfall amounts are a bit less, tapering off from east to west, with a 40% chance of 0.50 inch of Phoenix and just 15% chance for half an inch around the Phoenix area. Rain chances farther west along the Colorado River and into southeast California, including El Centro, are not quite as high with varying 50-80% odds for measurable rain but less then 10% probability for 0.25 inch or higher. Snow levels will eventually drop down to 5000 feet by Sunday which should limit any accumulating snow to the highest peaks in Gila and Maricopa Counties and western Joshua Tree National Park.

However, strengthening jet dynamics, cooling aloft, and additional moisture increases could produce enough instability for convectively enhanced showers and/or thunderstorms, primarily east of the Colorado River late Saturday and then again Sunday. The latest available HREF mean MUCAPE signals instability will be the highest late Sunday morning and afternoon, perhaps aided by some surface heating, over the south-central Arizona desert. Any bit of instability will probably enhance shower potential, leading to locally heavier rainfall, and possibly isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally gusty winds, lightning, and possibly small hail in addition to increased rainfall rates.

Confidence remains high that a second peak period for precipitation will open on Monday as additional embedded waves deepen the cold-core low over Arizona and allow an anomalously cold airmass to settle over the region. Global ensembles show H5 heights cooling down minus 30 to minus 35 Celsius Monday-Tuesday which would place near the minimum for NAEFS seasonal climatology. This will create this year's best snowmaking event so far as snow levels drop down to 4500 feet by Monday morning, 3000 feet by Monday night and then perhaps as low as 2500 feet by Tuesday morning. Areas around Globe are most likely to see 2-5 inches while portions of the outlying Phoenix area could see an inch or two, and perhaps even a few fleeting flakes somewhere in the heart of the Valley. The remote high terrain of Gila County, like Hilltop, could see 12-20 inches of snow while portions of the Four Peaks and Superstitions could see 10-18 inches. The latest snowfall forecast varies minimally from the most previous version but still seems rather exceptional for some places, perhaps a likely influence from more aggressive ensembles and the WPC forecast. The 90th percentile outcomes, reflecting the more extreme possibilities, could add another 2-8 inches onto those aforementioned totals. Two possible considerations that could make this more probable are orographic lift, depending on how the flow sets up, as well as convectively enhanced showers.

For elevations below 2500 feet, the precipitation chances and probabilities for Monday-Tuesday look very similar to the first period of Saturday-Sunday, although odds are tilting 10-20% higher and 0.01-0.10" wetter across the board. In all, pretty much everywhere will see their best chances to see rain in several months. Between now and Wednesday, lower desert areas like Phoenix, Casa Grande and Gila Bend are likely to see 0.30-1.00 inches of rain, although similar places around this area could see 1.25-1.50 inches. Western Arizona, along the Colorado River and southeast California are not anticipated to see nearly as much rain with rainfall totals ranging from a few hundredths up to 0.30 of an inch. If convection does happen, those areas are most favored to see those higher rainfall totals. Localized flooding problems cannot be ruled out but the concern for burn scar related flooding as well as flow into the Tonto Creek are bigger concerns at this time.

After the showers, our attention will turn towards the cold. Southeast California may hold onto the low 60s through the week, avoiding the coldest portion of the approaching air mass, while highs will drop into the mid to low 50s across south-central AZ as early as tomorrow and not likely to warm much until late in the week. The coldest period is likely to be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with numerous areas reaching the freezing mark, including portions of the Valley. Hints of another weather system could mark a quick return of colder temperatures, rain and higher elevation snow by next weekend.

AVIATION. Updated at 1258Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

SCT-BKN cloud coverage near 5-6 kft will be common through the rest of the morning, followed by a 1-2 kft rise in the bases this afternoon. Light rain showers were seen early this morning, but should generally remain northeast of the metro area through the rest of the morning. Isolated showers may pop up again during the afternoon. Embedded thunder cannot be ruled out, but odds are low. Rain chances continue to increase tonight and CIGS will once again lower to around the same level they are this morning. Winds will tend to favor a south-southeast to south-southwest component through the TAF period, though periodic shifts and variability are possible. Speeds will be strongest through the morning and early afternoon around 7-10 kts. Lighter speeds will follow through the rest of the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Breezy westerly winds are favored at KIPL through the TAF period with speeds trending down tonight. At KBLH, west to southwest winds will prevail with speeds up to 8-12 kts in the afternoon. FEW to SCT coverage at 5-6 kft will continue through the day, becoming more BKN tonight, with periods of high clouds aoa 20 kts as well. An isolated shower is possible tonight.

FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: No significant changes to the forecast . Multiple weather systems will bring chances for precipitation across all fire districts with the best chances east of the Colorado River. Some lower desert areas could see 0.25-1.00 inches of rain, perhaps even slightly more, by Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Snow is likely to fall for elevations above 5000 feet through the period but lowering snow levels could allow for accumulation as low as 2500-3000 feet by Monday/Tuesday. Breezy conditions are also likely to affect the entire area at times. Temperatures will also be significantly cooler with highs often in the 50s while lows reach at least the 30s. The increased moisture levels and cooler temperatures should keep RH values above 40%.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for AZZ557-558-563.

CA . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ562.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ563-566-567.



DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Benedict FIRE WEATHER . AD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ1 mi25 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F44°F58%1012.2 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ13 mi23 minVar 410.00 miOvercast57°F44°F62%1012.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ15 mi28 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F41°F51%1014.2 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ16 mi22 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F44°F60%1012.4 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi29 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F45°F59%1013.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi23 minS 410.00 miOvercast56°F47°F72%1012.7 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi29 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F45°F59%1013.9 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ22 mi26 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F43°F55%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S9SW3S4W10SW5S3W3W5W7W3SW4S4SE6SE7S9SE8SE8S6CalmCalmS6SE8S7
1 day agoSE5E7CalmSE6SE6S8S6S6CalmW4SE3E5E5E6E4E3SE4SE5SE7E7SE8S9S10S5
2 days agoE11E9
G19
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E6E7E5NE8NE6E6E4E7E8E9E9E4E5E7E5CalmE7SE3NE6NE5NE8

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.