Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tempe, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 7:40PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:34 PM MST (01:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:28AMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tempe, AZ
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location: 33.45, -112.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 140001 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 501 PM MST Mon Jul 13 2020

UPDATE. Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Abnormally strong high pressure will remain over the area into the early part of the week with excessive heat continuing through today. Beginning tomorrow, lower elevation high temperatures will remain near 110 degrees the rest of this week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible the next few afternoons and evenings, mostly over areas east of Phoenix.

DISCUSSION.

Today is the last day of the Excessive Heat Warning as temperatures will remain well above normal. After the excessive heat, the forecast for most of the week is fairly unremarkable with relatively little change from day-to-day. Broad troughing across the northern Intermountain West will flatten the subtropical ridge of high pressure and dampen atmospheric heights. The NAEFS mean height guidance shows H5 levels decreasing to 590-592dm by mid week which is around the seasonal climatological average. This will result in a modest cooldown of a few degrees with afternoon highs dropping into the 107-110 degree range.

As far as thunderstorm chances are concerned for rest of this afternoon and evening, the remains of a MCV that formed last night over northern Sonora/extreme southern AZ is now moving across South- Central AZ. This feature did produce a few showers/TS across northern Pinal and southern Gila Counties this morning, but all of it that is left of this MCV is just some debris clouds/virga at this hour. Latest HRRR/HREF model output is now showing virtually no convective development through tonight over our CWA. These seems to make sense, given the mid-level flow that is forecast to become more sw-ly, with somewhat drier/more stable air moving into the region behind the MCV. However, the development of a few storms of southern Gila County cannot be ruled out. The main impacts from any storms that develop will be locally gusty winds and lightning, will rainfall amounts likely remaining very minimal, raising the odds from new fire starts across the region.

For Tuesday through Thursday, the eastern half of the state will retain daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the forecast period. For the lower desert, storm chances on most days are less than 10 percent, and truthfully, much closer to zero, as conditions generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, nightly gulf surges and moisture advection from distant convection will keep surface dew points from completely withering away. Ensemble guidance shows some hints that the monsoon could become more active across the lower desert by the end of this week if the subtropical ridge restrengthens near New Mexico with the western flank of the ridge expanding into Arizona. This would provide deep southerly flow and better moisture advection through most of Arizona, and if combined with minor disturbances and/or inverted troughs circling through the upper air pattern, we could finally see storms in the desert.

AVIATION. Updated at 0000Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Minimal aviation impacts aside from gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected at the Phoenix terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Winds this afternoon will generally remain out of the west-southwest at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots that will subside by late evening. Winds will become easterly overnight before having a brief period of southerlies around 17Z before becoming westerly between 18-19Z with gusts similar to or slightly weaker tomorrow than they were today. Scattered to broken cloud decks between 15-25 kft will persist through the overnight hours before becoming more isolated on Tuesday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Gusty winds this afternoon and evening will be the primary impact at the TAF sites, with west-southwest gusts to 25-30 knots expected. Winds should gradually weaken below 10-15 knots by late evening at KBLH and overnight at KIPL as they become more southerly. Another round of gusty winds are expected tomorrow afternoon similar to or slightly weaker than they were today. Skies will generally remain clear with only a few cloud decks down to 10 kft tonight.

FIRE WEATHER. Thursday through Monday: No changes to the forecast . Dry conditions and above normal temperatures can be expected all week with lower deserts seeing highs in the 107-112 degree range. Daytime minimum humidity values will be around 10-20% for most places Thu-Fri while overnight recoveries will rise into the 30-50% range for most places, with the highest values over the high terrain. Some increase in humidities can be expected during the Sat-Mon period. Wind speeds will be light most days, outside of typical afternoon breezes up to 20-25 mph, with directions following local terrain influences. A gradual increase in thunderstorm activity is possible during the Sat-Mon period as well, mainly over the higher terrain of South-Central AZ.

CLIMATE.

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures

Date Phoenix AZ | Yuma AZ | El Centro CA ---- ----------- ------- ------------

7/13 114 in 2005 115 in 1983 118 in 1939

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>563.

CA . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ560>570.



DISCUSSION . AD/Percha AVIATION . Hopper FIRE WEATHER . Hodges/Percha CLIMATE . MO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ1 mi43 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy109°F48°F13%1003.5 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ13 mi41 minWSW 710.00 miFair106°F51°F16%1004.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ15 mi45 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy109°F48°F13%1006.8 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ16 mi40 minW 910.00 miFair108°F51°F15%1004.1 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi47 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy109°F48°F13%1007.1 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ17 mi41 minSW 710.00 miFair105°F52°F17%1004.5 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi47 minSW 14 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy111°F55°F16%1006.1 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi36 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair110°F48°F13%1003.9 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ22 mi44 minWSW 510.00 miDust Storm 108°F53°F17%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10W8SW5S10S4N7W8CalmE4E4NE5E5E6SE4S6W5W7SW9W8SW5SW11W11
G19
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1 day agoW11W4W12W7NW6SE4N7N7W11W7SW4S4W3Calm3E5SE6S54NW103
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2 days agoW15
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W15W10W13W10W10W8W5W6W3W9W9NW9W10W7W4W8NW6NW8
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W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.