Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glendale, AZ

SYNOPSIS
Mild and dry conditions will continue across the Desert Southwest for the next several days. Temperatures will continue to remain above average through this weekend, however a gradual cooling trend can be expected by early next week as a weather system passes north of the region. The main impacts with this system will be breezy to locally windy conditions in southeastern California and the lower Colorado River Valley on Monday, breezy conditions across the region on Tuesday, and the potential for freezing temperatures across portions of the area Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION
Latest upper-level water vapor imagery and objective analysis reveal a weak upper-level low pressure system straddling the southern AZ-NM boarder and ridging over the Pacific NW. Through the weekend the aforementioned low pressure system will advect into the Plains and the ridging over the Pacific northwest will break down as a clipper system moves through northern CONUS. This clipper system, although well north of our region, will lower heights aloft a little bit leading to a slight cool down of a few degrees across the area through the start of next week. Lower desert communities will see afternoon high temperatures fall from the mid-to-upper 70s today to the low-to-mid 70s on Monday.

Deterministic and ensemble members show a shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region Monday into Tuesday. This trough will send a dry cold front through the region causing forecasted afternoon high temperatures to be 4-6 degrees cooler on Tuesday than on Monday. This cold front will also cause breezy to locally windy conditions across SE California and the lower Colorado River Valley Monday afternoon and evening, where gusts could reach 25-35 mph, and breezy conditions across the CWA on Tuesday. This cold front will also usher in very dry air (PWATS dipping to near/below 0.10") which will cause chilly overnight low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near freezing will be possible in locations like Blythe, Casa Grande, Wickenburg, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos. The NBM shows a 20-40% chance of freezing temperatures for these areas on Tuesday morning and a 40-70% chance on Wednesday morning.

Global ensembles continue to be in pretty good agreement that ridging will quickly build back in over western CONUS by the middle of next week causing temperatures to climb back above normal (in the low-to-mid 70s across the lower deserts). There are some discrepancies in the ensemble members regarding the exact strength of the ridge and just how long the ridge might stick around, which will determine just how warm temperatures get and how long the warmer temperatures will stick around. Majority of the ensemble members depict a quicker end to the above normal temperatures as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest next weekend. However, some of the members show the ridge sticking around through the weekend, prolonging the warmer temperatures. Either way, dry conditions will continue across the region for at least the next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under clear skies. Winds will follow more typical diurnal patterns, with speeds mostly AOB 6 kt sustained and periods of variability preceding direction shifts. Increasing high clouds are expected by Sunday afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns will exist through the next 24 hours under clear skies, with FEW-SCT high clouds returning by late Sunday morning. Winds will be light (AOB 5 kt through much of the TAF period) and follow typical diurnal tendencies, albeit with extended periods of variability.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions will continue through at least the next week.
Temperatures will continue to remain well above normal through Monday, although a slight cooling trend will commence over the weekend. Expect overall light winds somewhat following diurnal wind patterns through the weekend. Across SE CA and the lower CO River Vally, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Monday afternoon and evening where winds could gust into the 25-35 mph range. On Tuesday, expect breezy conditions across the area.
MinRHs will be in the teens across SE CA and SW AZ and in the 20s across south-central AZ through Monday. Much drier air moves in on Tuesday with minRHS dropping to 5-10% across the region.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.