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FXUS65 KPSR 080003 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 503 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

UPDATED
Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A cooling trend will take place over the next few days as a trough moves across the Intermountain West through this weekend.
This system will help push temperatures towards more seasonal levels by Saturday while also bringing breezy to locally windy conditions to parts of our CWA late Friday into Saturday. High pressure will likely build over the western CONUS starting by the end of the weekend, resulting in a slight rebound in regional temperatures as we head into next week.

DISCUSSION
Current analysis reveals the ridge that helped bring record warmth to the Phoenix areas the past few days has pushed further to our east and more zonal flow has been established across the Desert Southwest. Due to slightly lower H5 heights compared to yesterday, afternoon highs this afternoon will not be as warm, but temperatures will still be above normal, ranging generally in the mid 70s across the lower deserts.

A shortwave trough currently located over the Pacific Northwest will advance towards the Great Basin and Four Corners regions as we head into Friday. As this system approaches, H5 heights will be on the decline, leading to daytime highs dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the lower deserts for Friday afternoon.
This trough will also help enhance our regional pressure gradient, leading to breezy and locally windy conditions across portions of our CWA late Friday night into Saturday evening. The highest gusts during this timeframe will be focused over the Chocolate Mountains, where gusts could potentially (50-70%) exceed 50 mph.
Due to this potential, a Wind Advisory will go into effect late Friday night for parts of southeast California. Gusts ranging between 25-35 mph will also be likely for portions of the western deserts and the Arizona high terrain.

A cold front associated with this trough will dive south across our region early on Saturday, helping to bring a reinforcing push of relatively cooler air. Daytime highs for Saturday will be more seasonal, with highs generally ranging in the mid to upper 60s across the lower elevations, with upper 40s to mid 50s for higher elevation areas. Overnight lows will also take a noticeable dip over the weekend, with Saturday into Sunday being the coldest night. Low temperatures then will range in the mid-30s to lower 40s, with a few spots, such as central La Paz County and the Globe area, potentially seeing their first freeze of the season.

Model clusters are in excellent agreement regarding the previously mentioned shortwave exiting our region and a ridge building over the western CONUS in its' wake to finish off the weekend. H5 heights will begin to increase, allowing for temperatures to slowly rebound back into the 70s across the region by Tuesday. By Wednesday, there are indications of a shortwave trough developing across the southwest CONUS. However, it is too early to know how this potential system may impact our region. At this time, chances for rain associated with this feature appear to be minimal (<10%) for the middle of next week, but it will be something to keep an eye on going forward.

AVIATION
Updated at 0003Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light winds will prevail through the TAF period with directions continuing to follow typical diurnal patterns. Speeds will mostly be 7 kts or less and there will be periods of calm to very light and variable winds. Skies will remain mostly clear.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will overall favor a light westerly wind tonight and a 5-10 kt northerly wind developing at both terminals Friday afternoon.
Gusts at KBLH into the mid-teens are expected during the afternoon Friday. Mostly clear skies will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER
A couple weak weather systems will pass across the northern portion of the region through Friday bringing a decent cooling trend and temperatures back to normal as early as Friday. Afternoon MinRHs through Friday will mostly be between 20-25% across the lower deserts before falling to 10-15% on Saturday. Overall light winds will persist across the area today before winds become breezy to locally windy on Friday and Saturday. Conditions Saturday could pose an elevated fire danger across the Lower CO River Valley and over the Arizona high terrain.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon PST Saturday for CAZ564- 565-568.

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