Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glendale, AZ

DISCUSSION
Midday satellite shows an elongated positively tilted trough from SoCal all the way up through the Northern Plains. With negative height anomalies still over the area afternoon high temperatures will once again be around 5 degrees below normal, with most lower desert locations touching 80-84 degrees. Global models show the trough over the Southwest will be slow to move out and linger through tomorrow, while slowly weakening. This will allow temperatures tomorrow to warm to right around seasonal levels, with highs near 90 in the western deserts and middle to upper 80s for South-Central AZ. The remainder of the week will remain pretty tranquil with a weak shortwave ridge followed quickly by another weak shortwave trough. This pattern will bring the height field to more seasonal levels, with 500mb heights reaching around 574-576dam.
Temperatures at 850mb will steadily warm a degree or two each day through the end of the week. This will result in surface highs climbing back into the lower 90s across all lower deserts as early as Wednesday. Morning lows will remain upper 50s and 60s. Daily Minor HeatRisk is expected with these temperatures. Aside from the temperatures, dry conditions will continue, with low humidity, and mostly clear skies to at time partly cloudy is expected through the rest of the week with no rain in the forecast. Winds will also be light during the overnight and morning hours with some typical afternoon Spring breezes up to 15-20 mph.

A major pattern shift will commence heading into this weekend, as another Pacific trough will deepen across western CONUS. While uncertainty has shifted more into the details on how this trough will impact the sensible weather across the Desert Southwest, the consensus is now moreso either a very deep trough or a cutoff will traverse across the region in some form beginning late Saturday.
Details regarding how deep and anomalous this troughing feature will become remains to be seen, but confidence is fair to good of elevated winds developing as early as Saturday and extending into Sunday from west to east. Pretty significant cooling would then accompany this disturbance, where confidence is good this cooling will be delayed until Sunday, as evidenced by the NBM interquartile ranges still remaining in the low to mid-90s on Saturday for central Phoenix. The magnitude of cooling is more uncertain, as this uncertainty is related to the strength of this trough come Sunday, where lower deserts could see highs dip into the middle to upper 70s. Additionally, due to elevated winds, warm temperatures, and dry conditions likely to persist on Saturday, elevated (at minimum) fire weather may become a concern, particularly the higher terrain of south-central Arizona. Unfortunately, while moisture levels are anticipated to increase from this disturbance, ensemble clusters are depicting any precipitation potential to remain north of the region.
Thus, while cooler temperatures will be a welcomed change, central to southern Arizona will remain dry, as NBM PoP's for the weekend remain below 10%.

AVIATION
Updated at 1715Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: No aviation weather concerns will exist through this afternoon under mostly clear skies. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns, expecting to shift out of the West by this afternoon, with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts. Periods of variable to nearly calm winds preceding direction shifts later tonight, especially at the northern terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours under SKC skies. Wind directions will primarily favor the W to NW at KIPL with speeds generally AOB 8 kts. At KBLH, extended periods of light and variable winds will prevail through early this evening, with directions eventually establishing out of the SW for the overnight period.

FIRE WEATHER
Below normal temperatures today will result in minimum RH values above 15%, however warming conditions the rest of the week, back to slightly above normal by Wednesday, will drop minimum RH values back down to around 10-15% each afternoon through at least Friday. A cool weather system will then approach and move through the region this weekend. This will bring minimum RH values back above critical levels. However, this system will also bring increased gradient winds across the area and it looks as though there will be a period of at least elevated fire weather conditions for South-Central AZ Saturday afternoon. Winds will maintain seasonally typical upslope gustiness in the afternoon through the entire week with likely stronger gusts arriving this weekend. Predictive services still show ERCs are below the 75th percentile, which should help limit the large fire risk.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.