Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brook Highland, AL

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

Sunshine has made a welcome appearance early this afternoon as morning low clouds have been allowed to mix out. The tradeoff comes with the fact that additional sunshine will also add to the fuel for storms to fire on through the afternoon and early evening. The broad, vertically-stacked closed low continues to spin over the ArkLaMiss, pumping plenty of moisture northward within a deep southerly flow across the profile. The overall 700-500mb jet has weakened today, and convective coverage is expected to be more cellular in nature with shorter-lived updrafts. That will certainly help the current flooding situation, as soils are saturated across the southern half of the CWA Rainfall amounts between 3 and 5 inches with localized amounts up to 7 inches have been reported over the last 72 hours.
For now, we'll keep the Flood Watch in effect through 7pm this evening as storms that develop will still contain heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding.

Some strong storms are likely across the entire CWA this afternoon through this evening with gusty winds and hail the main hazards.
Across eastern Alabama, a few of those could become marginally severe due to greater Effective bulk shear present on the east side of the closed low. Updrafts that are sustained a bit longer, along with cooler air aloft at 500mb would be capable of producing an isolated damaging wind gust along with quarter size hail. Highs will be allowed to top out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with the additional sunshine. Coverage of storms will decrease between sunset and midnight, with best chance of lingering showers over northern and northeast counties.

The closed low will finally begin the slow trek north and eastward overnight through the day on Tuesday, while becoming elongated from northwest to southeast. Diurnally-driven convective development is forecast once again, but severe chances will be very limited due to an overall lack of destabilization with lingering broken to overcast sky conditions. Shower and storm chances will remain high across the northern half of the CWA, with much lower chances along and south of the I-85 corridor. We'll have a good range of temperatures by Tuesday afternoon as a result, with lower 70s forecast for Haleyville and lower 80s expected at Eufaula.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

In the extended period, the remnant upper low will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley with a trough from the Great Lakes to the southeast US on Wednesday. A ridge axis will be sandwiched between the aforementioned trough and a system ejecting out of the Intermountain Region. A few lingering showers will be possible on Wednesday especially in the far northeastern counties in the proximity of the trough axis. However, most locations will see a dry day on Wednesday for the first time in a while.

Ridging will build across the region briefly on Thursday with a warming trend (temps pushing 90 in many locations) and mainly dry weather areawide. A surface front associated with the upstream system will begin to approach the region toward the weekend. The medium range guidance has some discrepancies in terms of timing with this system with the majority of the ensemble guidance for now showing much of Central Alabama Friday as dry. This is subject to change however if the more aggressive Euro solution verifies.
Unsettled weather begins to creep back into the picture for the entire area on Saturday with the front approaching from the north.
This system could bring a few strong storms but those details are to be determined. Will maintain low PoPs for Sunday as well given the uncertainties with the frontal placement in the extended guidance.

15/CBD

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

Most terminals have mixed ceilings out or will mix out shortly to VFR conditions this afternoon, but will encounter additional SHRA and TSRA development over the next 3 to 6 hours. VCTS/TSRA activity is expected to impact TCL, EET, and BHM through 22z.
Expect amendments through the rest of the afternoon at times, to include a potential for gusty downburst type winds and rapid reductions in vis due to heavy rainfall. SHRA/TSRA coverage will decrease overnight with another round of IFR stratus development, but holding off a little longer between 07z and 12z Tuesday morning. IFR stratus should mix out fairly quickly between 15z and 18z during the day on Tuesday.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture and rain chances will remain high across much of the region through at least Tuesday before a drying trend begins across the area on Wednesday. Minimum relatively humidity values will range from 50 to 60 percent Tuesday in the south and around 70 percent in the north. Some pockets of 30 to 40 percent minimum relative humidity values return on Wednesday and Thursday mainly in the south. 20 ft winds will shift to a southwesterly direction up to 8 mph on Tuesday and up to 10 mph from the southwest on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 57 76 58 84 / 60 80 30 10 Anniston 58 76 60 85 / 60 80 20 10 Birmingham 60 75 62 85 / 60 80 20 10 Tuscaloosa 59 77 63 86 / 50 70 10 0 Calera 60 76 63 85 / 60 70 10 0 Auburn 60 78 63 84 / 50 30 10 10 Montgomery 60 80 63 88 / 40 30 10 0 Troy 58 81 62 87 / 30 20 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston.