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FXUS64 KSHV 071149 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 549 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The flow aloft will become increasingly southwesterly today as a short wave ridge axis moves east of the Mississippi River this morning. Deep layer moisture is also increasing as high cirrus will continue to increase in coverage. Low-level southerly flow will also strengthen dramatically today as a surface trough quickly develops over the Plains ahead of the next major upper level low. Sustained southerly winds of 7 to 12 kts can be expected today, and there may be some higher speeds in the terrain of Southeast Oklahoma. Despite the increased clouds, the low- level southerly winds will also advect more warm and moist air into the region. Daytime highs temperatures should return to above normal levels today as most locations should warm well into the 60s.

Southerly winds may actually increase across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas tonight as the pressure gradient continues to strengthen. A upper trough diving southeast through the Rockies will aid in the development of surface low over the Southern Plains and the sharpening of a cold front. In response, winds will likely be even stronger on Friday, with sustained speeds between 15 and 20 kts and gusts between 20 and 30. Wind speeds could briefly reach Wind Advisory criteria in a few places.
Well above normal temperatures are expected as much of the area should climb above 70 degrees F. A lead vort max arriving ahead of the main upper trough could help produce some showers Friday afternoon in Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast/Central Louisiana in the broad warm air advection regime. Chances for more robust convection are discussed below.

CN

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Starting 00z Saturday...Let us just delve right into the meat and potatoes of the extended forecast...the prospect of severe weather on Saturday. First things first, the upper-air pattern shows a very broad trough moving from the Rocky Mountains into the central CONUS on Friday evening with ridging across the east coast. Out ahead of the trough will be a lead shortwave that will move through the upper trough. As this shortwave moves into far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas it will help to trigger some thunderstorm development Friday night and into Saturday morning.
Thinking that most of this activity will be fairly elevated, bringing mainly a threat of isolated large hail. Right now the SPC has a D2 Marginal Risk across the northwest third of the forecast area.

Moving into Saturday, the broad trough mentioned above will continue to push east, along with an associated cold front. All the necessary ingredients, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, dewpoints in the 60s, and decent shear, will be in place to support strong to severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. I think one thing to continue to note with this set-up is that ongoing precipitation could potentially disrupt the severe weather chances across portions of the area. In addition, if we don't see enough clearing during the afternoon hours, this could limit the amount of instability across our region, thus limiting the severe weather potential. With this uncertainty in place, SPC has continued with the 15 percent probabilities by placing a large Slight Risk across the majority of our forecast area. Regardless of the outcome of Saturday, it is still a good idea to prepare for the worst by reviewing your severe weather safety plan and keeping up with the latest forecast as we still have a few days for this system to come into focus.

The good news is, and something that seems to be more of a "slam dunk" is that we will see a return to fairly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures behind the passing cold front during the rest of the weekend (Sunday) and into the start of next week. Most models are still hinting that we could see widespread sub-freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. Then seasonable conditions and little to no PoPs continue through the later half of next week.

/33/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Gusty southerly winds are expected for much of the period.
Sustained wind speeds should increase to between 7 and 12 kts with some gusts approaching 20 kts, especially at the East Texas terminals. The gusty winds may diminish for a few brief hours around 08/00z before returning for the overnight hours. VFR conditions should also prevail at most TAF sites. However, cloud cover will rapidly increase late in the period, and ceilings will also quickly lower. MVFR ceilings may develop across portions of Northeast Texas, including KTYR and KGGG, just before 08/12z.

CN

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 53 71 65 / 0 0 10 30 MLU 64 45 69 62 / 0 0 20 30 DEQ 64 48 67 52 / 0 0 20 60 TXK 63 52 67 61 / 0 0 10 60 ELD 64 48 67 60 / 0 0 10 50 TYR 67 57 74 63 / 0 0 10 20 GGG 67 55 73 63 / 0 0 10 30 LFK 68 55 72 64 / 0 10 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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