Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avalon, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/208 PM.

A classic looking cyclone is approaching the Central Coast this afternoon. There have been a few light showers well ahead of the storm during the day but as of 1pm the primary cold front is just 30-50 miles west of the Central Coast and poised to move onshore this evening. No significant changes have been made to previously discussed rain amounts and hourly rates as the high res models have more or less held steady. This will be a relatively quick moving system, but there will be some pockets of heavy rain at times, especially tonight into early Wednesday. Both the REFS and HRRR models still indicate peak rates at around 0.75"/hr, mostly in the mountains, with rates at or below a half inch per hour across coast/valleys. There could be a couple rumbles of thunder tonight as well (better chance north of Pt Conception) but not expecting that to be a widespread feature across the area. Overall rain totals remain very similar to previous estimates, an inch or less across coast/valleys and 1-2" in the foothills and mountains.

The storm is also generating gusty south winds ahead of the cold front to the tune of 30-50 mph, strongest along the Central Coast and in the mountains. Those will start to drop off overnight into Wednesday morning.

Rain will turn to showers by around 4am or earlier and then just scattered showers Wednesday morning until around noon. After that most of the rain will be over. The one exception will be the San Luis Obispo Central Coast where there will be enough lingering moisture and energy to keep light showers going through at late as Thursday morning.

Aside from that, dry and warmer weather is expected through Friday which will be the warmest day for quite some time with highs in the low to mid 70s across the LA/Ventura valleys and 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...10/206 PM.

Most of the ensemble models are showing dry weather through Saturday before the first of at least three storms arrives on Sunday. There is still uncertainty on timing of the following storms but the ensemble solutions have been quite steady with the rain amounts which looks to be around 2-4" coast/valleys and 3-6" in the foothills and mountains between Sunday and next Wednesday.
Snow levels mostly will be around 6000 feet, except they could drop to as low as 4000 or even slightly lower on Wednesday.

That may not be the end of the storm cycle next week as there are some model solutions keeping the door open for additional precip later next week.

AVIATION
10/2342Z.

At 2317Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to at least 3000 feet.

Low confidence due to rain with low ceilings and visibility, and timing may be off by 2 hours. At least brief IFR or lower cigs/vsbys possible in heavier rain focused between 00-06Z for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and KSBA, and between 06-12Z to the south including KLAX. There is a 5-10 percent chance of a brief thunderstorm, mostly within those same windows. Weak to moderate LLWS is possible especially along and before the period of moderate to heavy rain. Periods of moderate to occasionally strong turbulence and low- level wind shear are possible after 00Z.

KPMD and KWJF: Peak winds may be off by 5-10 kt at times due to possible mountain wave activity.

KLAX...Low confidence due to timing of flight category changes and wind shifts which could be off by 2-3 hours. 10-15 kt east wind component likely between 00Z-04Z, then increasing to 15-20 kt (gusts to 30 kt possible) and shifting to southeast between 03Z-13Z.

KBUR...Low confidence due to timing of flight category changes and wind shifts which could be off by 2-3 hours. Periods of moderate to occasionally strong turbulence and low-level wind shear are possible, and wind speeds may be off by 5 kt at times.

MARINE
10/714 PM.

A cold front sweeping over the coastal waters is responsible for widespread Gale Force winds up to 40 knots across the Santa Barbara Channel (a Gale Warning has been issued) and the waters west to northwest of the Channel Islands, including nearshore along the Central Coast. These winds will weaken overnight through the morning hours, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will follow into Wednesday morning or afternoon. Large and hazardous seas will also peak overnight and improve through Wednesday afternoon.

SCA conditions will continue for the waters southwest to southeast of the Channel Islands (including adjacent to the coasts of Los Angeles and Orange Counties) though Wednesday morning. Seas will be choppy and hazardous through at least Wednesday morning.

There is a moderate chance (40-60%) that combination of NW winds and seas will reach SCA levels across the Outer Waters and potentially nearshore Central Coast waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

Another storm system will enter the region Sunday or Monday, bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain to the coastal waters. There is a moderate (40-60% chance) for Gale Force winds early next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Wind Warning in effect until 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 38-344-345-353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 340>343-346>349. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until midnight PST tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).