Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ladera Ranch, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This afternoon...An upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska will continue to dig through the Great Basin this afternoon, reaching its maximum southern extent by tonight around the California/Arizona border, pushing slowly eastward throughout Sunday, then breaking down Monday as the upper level flow becomes more zonal. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are being observed in the high deserts. Strongest winds will be observed this evening throughout Southern California with gusts of 45-55 mph in the mountains and deserts and locally up to 65 mph in the windiest locations. Areas of blowing dust are possible in the deserts, reducing visibility at times.

Tonight, the marine layer will become thick enough to ring out intermittent light rain through early Sunday morning, especially for San Diego County areas below 5000 feet. Total rainfall should amount to no more than 0.10 inches.

Dry with a warming trend beginning on Sunday as low pressure moves eastward into the Rockies and weak high pressure builds over the west coast. A surface high moving into the Great Basin will bring periods of weak offshore flow on Monday, with locally gusty northeast to east winds. Current guidance shows the offshore winds peaking late Monday morning with local wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino Mtns, in the northern parts of the IE and in the Santa Ana Mtns. The offshore winds will weaken on Monday evening. Weak offshore winds will also be observed Tuesday morning.

Under high pressure aloft, temperatures will continue to rise through midweek and Wed and Thu are likely to be the warmest days with daytime high temps reaching the mid to upper 90s in the IE on both those days. 45-55% chance of exceeding 100F in the IE Wed and Thu. The marine layer will maintain less of a presence with day-to- day variations on the amount of low clouds/fog during the nights and mornings but daytime temperatures will reach the mid 70s near the coast.

Temperatures will again trend lower for next weekend as a low pressure trough approaches from the northwest but there isn't much confidence in the details of the forecast due to the spread among model solutions.



AVIATION
172030Z
Coast/Valleys
BKN-OVC clouds remain in place across the coastal basin this afternoon with more SCT-BKN for portions of the eastern valleys. Bases have lifted generally over 3000ft MSL this afternoon, but should settle back down closer to 2500-3500ft overnight. More scattered light showers/drizzle possible after 00z Sunday, continuing through about 18z Sunday. Clouds gradually clearing late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon from northwest to southeast, with nearly full clearing by late Sunday afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT high clouds prevail. West to southwest gusts 35-55kts over the desert foothills and through passes this afternoon/evening, gradually waning tonight. Strong up/downdrafts in the lee of mountains such as near KPSP expected and BLDU likely through 08Z Sunday, primarily in the deserts and Coachella Valley, where VIS may fall below 3SM at times. Widespread gusts 25-35kts pick back up Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
Onshore winds gusting near 20kts near San Clemente Island late this afternoon into early Sunday may lead to some choppy seas in the outer waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions expected through Thursday.

BEACHES
Elevated surf will impact beaches Sunday and early Monday, peaking Sunday afternoon/evening. Expected surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet producing a high rip current risk.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...None.