Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Murrells Inlet, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Isolated showers will be possible again this morning near the coast.
Activity will then pick up along the sea breeze with greater coverage into the afternoon and evening. If activity to our west starts organizing along its outflow and moving towards our area, we could get some stronger pockets of convection in the late afternoon and evening, but it will be tough to say exactly when/where due to the smaller scale processes. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts. A shortwave will then move across the area during the evening which could pull more scattered showers into the area with general drying expected to start around midnight from inland towards the coast. Activity will then be offshore through the rest of the night. Highs near 90 with lows in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Region remains under influence of weak mid-level trough Fri with this feature slowly shifting east for Sat. At the surface both days will be similar with Bermuda High anchored offshore and the Piedmont trough across or just west of the western parts of the forecast area. There is a slight drop in precipitable water Fri to Sat with values dropping from 2.1"-2.2" Fri to just under 2" Sat. Still high both days, but the slight drop is due to some weak mid level subsidence and drying in the wake of the 5h trough. This could lead to a slight drop in storm coverage from Fri to Sat, but the environment remains favorable for storm development. So while coverage may decrease a bit Sat, do not expect to see a big difference. Although there will be plenty of moisture and more robust storms will have the potential for high rainfall rates, not much of a flooding concern for now. Storm motions will be around 15mph, so unless multiple storms move across the same location in a short duration, residence time for a given storm over any one area will be low. The caveat to this will be if the same areas experience heavy rains for multiple days, then a single storm could pose more of an issue.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Long term looks rather unsettled with daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface trough or front will be in the area each day while Bermuda High remains parked offshore. Although weak mid-level ridging does start building over the Deep South and Southeast next week, subsidence takes a while to develop. In fact forecast soundings don't really show any sign of subsidence in the mid-levels through Wed. There also remains an abundance of deep moisture with precipitable water generally around 125% of normal through the middle of next week. Hard to single out any one day as being favored for convection given the lack of well defined surface features and minimal support aloft. Rain chances on any day could range from 40% to 60% given the environment's potential. Northwest flow is in place Sun into Tue morning which suggests at least the potential for an MCS at some point during the first half of the forecast period. Highs will be in the lower 90s early dropping into the upper 80s by the middle of next week. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
No showers expected to impact terminals until the morning. Main focus for tonight will be mainly stratus + possible fog inland with impacts expected to be MVFR with IFR possible. Coastal terminals will experience morning showers again with a general increase in coverage for all terminals into the afternoon. Main impact will be MVFR/IFR visibility in heavier pockets of rain.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus.

MARINE
Through Tonight...
Some showers with isolated thunder will be possible near the coast this morning with coverage generally expanding into the afternoon/evening. SW winds will pick up to 15-18 kts in the afternoon as the PG increases between the Bermuda High offshore and low pressure inland. Seas will increase to ~4 ft in the afternoon with the increased SW wind wave and a SE 2-3 ft 7 second swell.

Friday through Monday...
Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow into next week. A surface trough moves closer to the coast for the weekend, loosening the gradient a bit which knocks speeds from a solid 15 kt Fri afternoon to 10-15 kt Sat-Mon. Seas 3-4 ft Fri trend closer to 3 ft Sat and 2- 3 ft Sun/Mon in response to the decreased wind speeds. A southerly wave will be the dominant wave with period around 7 seconds, a wind wave transitioning to more of a swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.