Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Surfside Beach, SC

UPDATE
Little adjustment to the forecast needed this morning as forecast reflects latest expectations for the afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Amplified upper trof to remain a stronghold during this period, with the upper trof axis either overhead or just west of the FA.
The leftover low stratus deck, possibly eclipsing portions of Pender County this morning, should retreat off to the NE early this morning. Thus looking at mainly clear skies thruout this period with periodic cirrus moving overhead and possibly FEW/SCT daytime Cu field within the W to NW flow aloft. The sfc pg will retightens ahead of a secondary cold front. In addition, will likely observe mixing from aloft further adding gustiness to the WSW-WNW wind fields midday thru early evening. At the immediate coast, winds may back to SW during the aforementioned time but overall the sea breeze should remain rather pinned close to the coast due to the strong WSW-WNW flow immediately aloft. Todays max temps looking at low to mid 80s, even at the immediate coast. Periodic Cirrus and possibly high altocu will periodically push across the area as a vort or "spoke" aids in pushing a secondary, moisture starved, CFP during the evening thru around midnight. Winds will stay active, possibly gusty around the CFP, then tail off to 5 kt or less by sunrise Fri.
Tonights lows will occur around sunrise, with upper 50s inland to the lower 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Relatively quiet weather expected during the short term period as surface high pressure ridges in from the northwest and mid- level ridge builds to the Southeast, with high temps around 80F and lows in the mid to upper 50s. There may be a few light showers moving across southern and coastal areas on Friday aided by PVA and a mid- level trough passage. Low humidity continues with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Period of unsettled weather, and above normal temperatures, may begin as early as Sunday as a front approaches from the south before stalling into early next week, with a series of waves developing along the front. PWATs increase to 1.5+" Sunday through Wednesday, approaching 2" Monday and Tuesday. High PWATs, increased instability, series of impulses aloft, and a nearby front means there is at least chance pops forecasted for each period in the long term, highest on Monday and Tuesday, though timing is impossible this far out for the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through 12Z Friday. Will deal with periodic thin cirrus across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. May observe FEW Cu field with no vertical development expected. Sfc pg will re-tighten ahead of the next cold front by midday with Westerly winds gusting up to 25 kt, except becoming gusty SW-WSW at the coastal terminals during the aftn thru early evening. The gustiness in the winds will diminish around sunset. The secondary CFP will occur from 04Z-07Z, with winds becoming NW 5 to 10 kt. May briefly gust to 15 kt right after FROPA for an hour or so. No pcpn expected with this FROPA.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR through early Sun. An increasing risk for flight restrictions starting late Sun thru Mon as a frontal system moves into the area, possibly stalling across the area into the mid-week period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Winds this period will be on the cusp of a SCA but the gusts will not be frequent/continuous enough to raise one. Looking at W-NW winds around 15 kt this morning, will back to the SW this afternoon and evening at 15 to 20 kt ahead of the next approaching cold front. However the aftn early evening winds will be accompanied with periodic 25 kt gusts, especially across the nearshore waters. The next CFP will occur later this evening or early on during the pre-dawn Fri hrs with winds veering to the NW with periodic g25 kt within 1 to 3 hrs after the CFP. CAA and mixing from aloft will aid these 25 kt wind gusts. No pcpn expected with this FROPA. Seas generally dominated by locally produced wind waves, at 5 second periods or less. May peak in the 2 to 4 ft range except 3 to 5 ft range for the waters South of Cape Fear to Little River Inlet.

Friday through Monday Night...West and southwesterly winds 10-15 kts Friday and Friday evening will lighten up and become more variable for Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure ridges in from the northwest. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday, followed by a stationary front moving north into the area before stalling on Monday. Combination will lead to S-SE winds Sunday and Monday, along with increased chance of scattered thunderstorms over the local coastal waters. Seas generally around 2 ft Friday and Saturday, decreasing to 1-2 ft for Sunday before increasing again into Monday with building south wind wave.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.