Sunday, February16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:01PM Sunday February 16, 2020 11:57 PM EST (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:21AMMoonset 12:01PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 841 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Tonight..N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except 2 ft near shore. A chance of rain or drizzle.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 841 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A trough will linger off the coast through Tuesday and a strong cold front will move off the coast Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters Wednesday through Friday. Small craft advisories are expected late Wednesday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 170132 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 832 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moisture from the Gulf coast and a trough situated just off the coast will bring rain and drizzle to the area through early Monday. Brief high pressure Monday and Monday night will give way to more rain Tuesday through early Wednesday as a frontal system crosses the region. Much colder and drier air will overspread the area late week into the weekend as cold high pressure influences weather across the Carolinas.

UPDATE. The deeper moisture associated with the subtropical jet is slowly pushing off the coast this evening. As a result there only scattered areas of -RA/-DZ lingering with minimal QPF expected. Other than increasing the coverage of fog for inland areas have lowered POPs with the update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. At the surface, a coastal front is lingering just off the coast. Weak surface low pressure develops along this front in response to a 500 mb shortwave trough in the subtropical jet which will pass overhead tonight. This results in rains continuing to move in from the southwest and then quickly move off to the northeast by Monday with the last of the showers moving off the southeast North Carolina coast before 11 AM. The pattern matches well with the lift along 290K isentropic surfaces of the GFS. Rainfall amount will be less than 0.25" with the largest totals along the coast.

With the coastal front and deep low-level moisture areas of fog are expected to develop later tonight, especially farther away from the coast.

The disturbance continues as the second in succession of subtropical short wave streams will cross the area. Rain chances will increase overnight as the rain propagates from the south to the north.

Low temperatures: Tonight: 43° to 47°F inland to 48° to 49°F at the coast. Monday night: 46° to 48°F inland to 49°F to 51°F at the beaches.

Monday's High temperatures: Inland 62° to 64° F inland 60° to 62° at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 'Wet', one way to succinctly describe this period, as a cold front drops lazily south and east across SE NC and NE SC. Two rain generation areas expected, first a Gulf disturbance ahead of the cold front, linking-up with warm-frontal genesis Tuesday, rain ending early evening. Late Tuesday night and Wednesday batch 2, as frontal convergence slow transits the area, 1-1/2 inch possible ending Wednesday. No severe threats expected with this system. Mild Tuesday, while Wednesday sees the onset of a cooling trend.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 'Colder and Drier' may be one way to characterize the extended forecast period beginning Wednesday night, with max-T Thursday through Saturday possibly below normal for middle February. Agricultural or gardening interests should monitor the extent of cold air forecasts, as below freezing temperatures are likely Friday morning and Saturday morning, as markedly cold high pressure falls from Arctic origins out of Canada, ECMWF and GFS both place the chilly cyclone over top the Carolinas next week, suggesting a fair, and seasonably cool weekend with a sub-freezing start.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Subtropical jet remains directed across the eastern Carolinas while a weak trough resides near the coast. Area of -RA/-DZ will continue to move generally west to east across the area this evening. CIGs will continue to lower overnight with a likelihood of IFR conditions developing at all terminals over the next few hours. CIGs will improve during the late morning during Monday with a return to VFR conditions

Extended Outlook . MVFR to possible IFR conditions expected, especially Tue through Wed during an unsettled period with the eventual passage of a cold front. VFR conditions expected by the latter half of the week.

MARINE. Tonight through Monday Night: A coastal front will remain over the waters and result in some rain/drizzle through the early morning hours. East of the boundary winds are from a SSEly direction with speeds around 20 knots. However, across the inshore coastal waters NEly flow with speeds around 10 knots are common. Seas around 4 ft prevail farther offshore and around 2 to 3 ft inshore. Offshore winds will remain in place across most of the coastal waters tonight then NE to E flow will develop during Monday with weak low pressure far east of Cape Lookout and a ridge expected along the coastal Carolinas.

Very good marine conditions early Tuesday, light SE winds and a gentle wave spectrum. A warm front will lift north over the waters Tuesday, and marine visibility will likely deteriorate in rain and mist during the day Tuesday, although winds will remain less than 13 kt. Frontal passage early Wednesday will mark the onset of worsening marine conditions, as N-NE winds become strong, as massive and cold Canadian high pressure falls toward the Carolinas. Wave bulletins for this period show seas near 10 feet at 41013 Thursday and Friday. The cold biting wind, strong chop, and large seas, will make this a hazardous marine period, and Gale force gusts are possible given the frigid and deep air mass rushing over the waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . 08 UPDATE . SRP NEAR TERM . RH SHORT TERM . MJC LONG TERM . MJC/21 AVIATION . SRP MARINE . SRP/MJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi57 min 51°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi72 min NW 8 52°F 1018 hPa51°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi49 min NNW 7.8 G 16 51°F 54°F1019.4 hPa
41119 28 mi37 min 54°F3 ft
SSBN7 28 mi65 min 2 ft
41108 47 mi57 min 56°F5 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC8 mi61 minNNW 910.00 miLight Rain51°F50°F96%1019.3 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi64 minN 610.00 miOvercast52°F50°F93%1019 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi82 minN 310.00 miLight Drizzle50°F50°F100%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3N4N3N6NE3CalmNW6N5NW4NE44E4E8E4E3E3CalmE4N4E5N5NE3N3NW9
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2 days agoW9NW7N14N11N11N11N10N12N13N11N10N12N10N14N12NW13N12N9N7N3CalmCalmNE4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:16 AM EST     5.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:31 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:37 PM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.154.231.80.80.20.20.71.62.63.54.14.23.72.81.70.70.1-00.31.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina (2)
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:25 AM EST     5.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:41 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:54 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.25.14.53.52.31.20.50.30.91.82.83.74.34.43.93.121.10.30.10.51.42.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.