Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:34PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:31 AM EST (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:55AMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 906 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 906 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure along the gulf coast will bring moderate offshore winds today, becoming lighter Tuesday. Winds will increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday as a dry front moves offshore. Another front approaching from the northwest could bring rain late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 181054 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 555 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Seasonable temperatures, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will continue into mid week as a series of cold fronts cross the coast. A warming trend will follow as high pressure over the Southeast US moves offshore. Rain chances increase late this week as a series of weak low pressure systems pass approach the Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold upper level trough will move across the Carolinas today with 500 mb temps getting as chilly as -28C around noon. 850 mb temps should bottom out in the -3 to -4C range. There won't be enough moisture even with 6000+ feet of vertical mixing to generate clouds, so expect full sunshine with highs 52-56. Yesterday's verification numbers show GFS MOS continues to have a large warm bias, so I'm leaning toward the cooler ECMWF and NBM for highs.

High pressure will move eastward along the Gulf Coast today, reaching north Florida tonight. A light westerly wind will disrupt otherwise ideal radiational cooling conditions across the Carolinas and our lows should reach the lower 30s inland with some mid 30s on the coast. The surface ridge axis should move across the area and offshore Tuesday afternoon with light west winds backing southwesterly while sunshine continues. This should bring some marine influence along the coast where cooler air will advect onshore. Away from the coast, Tuesday's highs should warm into the upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday as a weak cold front approaches the area on Tuesday night. No precip is expected with the front (at the moment) due to a dry air mass in the lower levels and a lack of forcing overall. Temperatures overnight remain in the upper 30s or lower 40s due to a combination of mid and high-level clouds and light winds. Weak cold advection and downslope winds will cancel each other out on Wednesday as highs approach upper 50s to near 60. High pressure continues to sit just to our SW overnight with lows in the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Clouds and rain chances increase on Thursday as moisture spreads eastward. A set of weak disturbances will ride along a stationary front late Thursday and Friday as showers increase in coverage from west to east, especially Friday. As high pressure begins to build southward on Friday, models hint at the stationary front pushing southward as a cold front. This would limit rain chances late Friday as drier air builds over the Carolinas. Have maintained a chance of rain as the ECMWF is a little slower and further north Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure is likely to start influencing our weather on Saturday as clear skies return through Sunday. Upper flow begins to ridge and best cold air advection remains well north, so afternoon highs are likely to only be a degree or two below climo on Saturday and Sunday. High pressure remains in control on Monday before the next storm system develops over the central US.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions expected. A jet max is moving through the CWA, with a high mid cloud ceiling at the onset. Gusty west winds are expected by mid morning, with clearing skies.

Extended Outlook . MVFR conditions are expected along with a low probability of IFR conditions late Thursday night into Friday as a wave of low pressure brings rain to the area.

MARINE. Through Tuesday . 1023 mb high pressure will move eastward along the Gulf Coast today while 980 mb low pressure moves across eastern Canada. Moderate westerly winds will continue across our coastal waters today with gusts near 25 knots at times. 00z model blends are slightly stronger than GFS/NAM marine MOS guidance, but even going with the stronger blended winds shows conditions falling short of Small Craft Advisory criteria across South Carolina. It's a little closer across the Cape Fear coastal waters where I'm about 50 percent confident we'll reach advisory criteria late this afternoon or this evening. I've trimmed back the SCA just to focus on the Cape Fear area beginning at 1 pm. As the high reaches north Florida after midnight our wind speeds should diminish to less than 15 knots and remain there through Tuesday. There's no significant swells in our corner of the Atlantic leaving short-period wind chop as the dominant wave through Tuesday. Tuesday Night through Friday . Southwest flow continues Tuesday night at 15-20 knots ahead of a weak cold front. Behind the front, high pressure will build into the area, increasing the gradient and leading to a brief period with wind gusts near 25 knots and possible SCA conditions; seas 3-5 feet. Winds veer, becoming NW on Wednesday, recovering from near-SCA conditions. A weak disturbance will ride a stationary front late Thursday and Friday bringing an increase in rain chances. Gradient will increase yet again as SW flow increases to near 20 knots late Thursday. This will bring another potential period of hazardous conditions through Friday morning. Front may push southward on Friday as northerly winds develop and gradient weakens throughout the day.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252.



SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . TRA/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi62 min 46°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi107 min W 5.1 42°F 1016 hPa34°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi84 min WNW 14 G 21 43°F 53°F1015.6 hPa
41108 47 mi62 min 53°F5 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC8 mi36 minW 1010.00 miFair47°F34°F61%1016.7 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi39 minW 810.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1016 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi37 minSW 610.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS8S10S10S11S11S11S6SW5W3W8W8W5W6W6W8W9W6W4W4W7W8W8W8W13
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:13 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:29 PM EST     4.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.120.90.20.10.51.32.43.54.34.64.53.82.71.50.60.10.20.91.933.94.4

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina (2)
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:01 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:22 AM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     4.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.52.51.50.70.40.71.52.63.64.34.74.64.13.1210.40.311.933.84.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.