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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 919 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw this afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers through the night. Showers likely after midnight.

AMZ200 919 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure developing off the north carolina coast will drag a cold front offshore late tonight. Breezy north winds Wednesday will continue through Wednesday night. High pressure will bring improving conditions Thursday through Friday night. Winds and seas should increase again this weekend ahead of the next front.

FXUS62 KILM 051423 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 923 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather is in store for this week. A cooling trend will continue through Thursday, with breezy conditions Wednesday.
Warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend, with a good chance of rain ahead of a front Sunday.

UPDATE
Trended afternoon/evening dewpoints lower due to downslope flow developing as the offshore low starts to move off to the northeast. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The upper air pattern will amplify over the next 24 hours as an impressive shortwave dives southeastward from the Great Lakes into Virginia and North Carolina by late tonight. Diffluent upper level flow ahead of this incoming disturbance will help develop and deepen surface low pressure off the NC coast later today into tonight.

The positive tilt of the approaching upper trough means there will no significant influx of moisture across the Carolinas, and therefore rain chances will remain essentially zero today and through this evening. I am including very small PoPs late tonight up in the Lumberton/Elizabethtown vicinity where steepening lapse rates aloft coupled with meager moisture (Pacific moisture arriving in the mid levels on northwest flow)
could result in isolated elevated convective showers developing prior to daybreak. 00z NAM forecast soundings explicitly showed 100-200 J/kg of CAPE developing within the 5-13kft layer, but other models were less bullish.

Yesterday's rather dense cirrus has been pushed to our south and much more sunshine is expected today. However the airmass has cooled since yesterday and today's forecast highs are 62-65 degrees, 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday. Radiational cooling should be quite good this evening allowing temps to fall into the 40s quickly. By daybreak inland lows should reach the upper 30s to near 40, with warmer readings expected along the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Start of Wednesday will be characterized by a strong upper trough moving across the area. Trough will actually be strong enough to lower tropopause height down to 500-600mb midday Wednesday, much lower than typical above 300mb (no effect on sensible weather but fun fact for weather enthusiasts). May be able to squeeze out a few showers across northern parts of CWA early Wednesday within a very shallow moist layer, though may end up with virga vs spotty measurable precipitation with dry air at surface. Wednesday afternoon will be characterized by breezy north winds keeping temps in the mid 50s, with potential for gusts to exceed 25mph.

Cooling trend continues Wednesday night through Thursday with strong CAA between ridge to the west and low pressure over western Atlantic. Temps Wednesday night around 30F away from the coast, with lingering winds preventing radiational cooling.
Surface high pressure and upper ridge axis move overhead on Thursday keeping area dry, with high temps in the low 50s and low temps Thursday night in the low 30s with better radiational cooling conditions..

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high and upper ridge shift off to the east on Friday, setting up WAA and beginning a warming trend into the weekend.
Dry weather continues Friday with PWATs still less than 0.5".
Highs around 60F. Southerly flow slowly increases Saturday and may see a weak warm front lift north during the day with well above normal temperatures. Next system approaches on Sunday, with strong upper trough lifting north over the Appalachians late in the day. Rain chances increase Saturday night through Sunday ahead of a cold front. Instability looks very limited, especially with forecasted cloud cover, and so have kept thunder out of Sunday's forecast for now but something to watch for.
Another forecast consideration for Sunday is winds. Southerly winds ahead of the front will be cranking Sunday, with winds of 40+ kt not far from the surface. Currently, mixing layer looks to be very shallow during the day, though even that would be enough to bring gusts up to 30mph down to the surface. If we get more sun and deeper mixing, could see stronger wind gusts Sunday afternoon. Following the cold front late Sunday, cooling and drying expected as high pressure builds in Monday.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Mid level clouds associated with an approaching upper level system could spread into the area after 06z tonight. There is a low probability of showers at KLBT after 08z tonight.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings could develop Saturday in advance of a cold front.

MARINE
Through Tonight...A secondary front or weak trough is pushing off the coast early this morning, followed closely by a shift to light northerly winds. Low pressure is expected to develop along this trough later this morning 75-100 miles east of Cape Fear which will adjust our wind directions back to the west again this afternoon. The low should slowly move northeastward along the western edge of the Gulf Stream tonight. Our wind speeds should increase tonight as the low deepens, perhaps even reaching 20 knots across the South Carolina coastal waters. No advisory is planned at this time, although some wind gusts could approach 25 knots late. Seas currently 2-3 feet should subside to only 2 feet for most of today, but will increase again tonight as a westerly wind chop increases.

Wednesday through Saturday...Northwest winds will be increasing Wednesday as gradient tightens between high pressure to the west and low pressure over the western Atlantic. Sustained wind speeds current peak Wednesday afternoon around 20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts through evening hours, and a brief SCA might be needed. High pressure shifts overhead on Thursday leading to northerly winds early in the day weakening to 10kts or less through Friday morning and slowly backing to southwesterly. High pressure moves offshore on Friday, with relatively light southerly winds prevailing through Saturday. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday lowers to 2-3 ft Thursday morning, dominated by offshore wind wave. Weakening winds will lower seas further to 1-2 ft Thursday afternoon through most of Saturday, combination of wind chop and ENE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Rhems
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:24 AM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:38 PM EST     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:36 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:15 AM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     1.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:29 PM EST     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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