Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pell City, AL
December 8, 2024 2:23 AM CST (08:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 4:38 PM Moonrise 1:09 PM Moonset 12:03 AM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KBMX 080449 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 721 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
High pressure remains centered over southern AL and GA. Calm winds and a dry air mass have allowed temperatures to quickly drop after sunset. High clouds are increasing ahead of the next system, however, so later tonight temperatures will level off and rise a little in some spots. The formerly cutoff low currently centered near El Paso will move eastward across the Southern Plains on Sunday and open up into a vigorous shortwave. Mid-level isentropic lift will kick in ahead of this system through the day. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly dry layer below 850mb, but a deep saturated layer above that with strong 500mb omega in the afternoon. Typically rain occurs a little quicker than the high res model QPFs indicate in these situations, so will maintain high (60 to 80%) PoPs for the northwest half of the area, but with light amounts through the afternoon (0.01" to 0.05"). Southerly winds should result in warming temperatures before evaporating cooling begins to occur.
32/JDavis
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
- Heavy rainfall from 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the forecast area from Sunday afternoon through early Wednesday morning with isolated amounts up to 4 inches possible across portions of Southeast Central Alabama.
Overall scenario remains the same across the extended periods. One change to the pattern is that the models are now bring the warm front back to at least the I-85 corridor with the shortwave on Tuesday. Not 100 percent convinced it will work as far north as guidance suggest, but enough is there to at least add in a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Best chances will be across the southern area. If the warm front lifts north enough and we can realize the most unstable CAPE then a few stronger storms may develop in the south on Tuesday afternoon. Will need to continue to monitor the trends over the next few days.
16
Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
Key Messages:
Sunday Night through Monday Night.
An upper low will open into a shortwave trough as it moves east over the Southern and Central Great Plains while a few mid-level disturbances move over the area from the southwest. Surface high pressure will move further southeast, becoming centered across the Southwest Atlantic while a warm front develops from low pressure across the Central Plains, extending southeast toward the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Expect continued increasing clouds Sunday night into Monday with rain showers becoming likely across the northwest Sunday night and expanding southeast during the day Monday. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid 50s far north and northeast to near 50 far south and southwest. Highs Monday will range from the lower 60s in the higher elevations far east to around 70 far south and southwest.
Tuesday.
The first shortwave trough will rapidly move east-northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night while another shortwave impulse becomes better defined Monday evening over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region and approaches the area from the southwest. Surface low pressure will become better organized across South-Central Oklahoma with a diffuse warm front remaining to our southwest with surface high pressure remaining to our east across the Southwest Atlantic Basin.
Cloudy skies with an increase in showers is forecast over much of the area during the early morning hours on Tuesday, followed by decreasing chances northwest later in the morning hours. Rain chances will continue to decrease across the northwest during the afternoon hours, especially near and northwest of Interstate 59 while the best chances for rain will continue southeast of Interstate 85 through the afternoon. Thunder potential has decreased and would be confined to the far southern tier of counties during this time frame. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 59s areawide with highs from the lower 60s northwest and across the higher elevations far east to readings in the lower 70s generally near and southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor.
Wednesday through Friday.
A sharp positively-tilted longwave trough will swing east over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Region early Wednesday then quickly lit northeast toward the Atlantic Seaboard toward evening. A northwest flow pattern will be left in its wake into Thursday. Available global model guidance maintains a slight northwest to a zonal flow pattern over the area into Thursday while one solution brings a shortwave southeast over the area Thursday night, will discount that depiction as an outlier for now. Shortwave ridging builds over the area from the west on Friday while two solutions tries to develop a trough over the Central Plains later in the day on Friday. An end to the shower activity will come as a cold front sweeps southeast across the area early on Wednesday. Another reinforcing cold front will move into the area early on Thursday followed by surface high pressure migrating southeast from the Northern Plains into the region later in the day. Surface high pressure will move northeast and become centered across the Mid Atlantic Region early on Friday.
Skies will become partly cloudy northwest while remaining mostly cloudy southeast as some lingering showers will remain possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor Wednesday morning, followed by a return to dry conditions areawide with continued gradual clearing skies from the west and northwest through the rest of the day on Wednesday. Dry conditions will accompany Wednesday morning lows across the northwest near freezing while readings will be in the lower 40s southeast. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s far north and across the higher elevations east to the lower 50s across the southern third of the area.
Fair skies with dry conditions are forecast Thursday and Friday with a widespread freeze forecast both mornings with lows in the 20s areawide. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the low 50s far south Thursday and will moderate into the 50s areawide on Friday.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
VFR conditions and light winds are expected tonight and for much of the daylight hours on Sunday. Cloud bases will gradually lower, with light to moderate rain spreading eastward Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening across the northern terminals. Cigs will lower to MVFR and IFR Sunday evening at the northern terminals. MGM will be on the southern fringes through this TAF cycle and only have a PROB30 mention of -RA there. Southerly winds will also increase Sunday night.
32/JDavis
FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity values will rebound tonight into the 60s to low 80s with light winds. Chances for showers will increase by daybreak on Sunday across the west and spread eastward through the day. Minimum relative humidity values on Sunday will be in the low to upper 30 percent range across the eastern half of the forecast area, with the lowest in the southeast. Relative humidity values will be in 40s and 50s before the rain in the west. Several waves of rain will be possible through early Wednesday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 30 57 46 66 / 0 50 100 90 Anniston 34 60 49 66 / 0 40 90 90 Birmingham 38 58 51 66 / 10 70 100 90 Tuscaloosa 37 58 52 68 / 10 80 100 80 Calera 36 59 51 68 / 0 60 100 90 Auburn 38 61 52 64 / 0 20 70 90 Montgomery 37 63 53 69 / 0 30 80 90 Troy 36 65 53 69 / 0 20 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 721 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
High pressure remains centered over southern AL and GA. Calm winds and a dry air mass have allowed temperatures to quickly drop after sunset. High clouds are increasing ahead of the next system, however, so later tonight temperatures will level off and rise a little in some spots. The formerly cutoff low currently centered near El Paso will move eastward across the Southern Plains on Sunday and open up into a vigorous shortwave. Mid-level isentropic lift will kick in ahead of this system through the day. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly dry layer below 850mb, but a deep saturated layer above that with strong 500mb omega in the afternoon. Typically rain occurs a little quicker than the high res model QPFs indicate in these situations, so will maintain high (60 to 80%) PoPs for the northwest half of the area, but with light amounts through the afternoon (0.01" to 0.05"). Southerly winds should result in warming temperatures before evaporating cooling begins to occur.
32/JDavis
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
- Heavy rainfall from 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the forecast area from Sunday afternoon through early Wednesday morning with isolated amounts up to 4 inches possible across portions of Southeast Central Alabama.
Overall scenario remains the same across the extended periods. One change to the pattern is that the models are now bring the warm front back to at least the I-85 corridor with the shortwave on Tuesday. Not 100 percent convinced it will work as far north as guidance suggest, but enough is there to at least add in a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Best chances will be across the southern area. If the warm front lifts north enough and we can realize the most unstable CAPE then a few stronger storms may develop in the south on Tuesday afternoon. Will need to continue to monitor the trends over the next few days.
16
Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
Key Messages:
Sunday Night through Monday Night.
An upper low will open into a shortwave trough as it moves east over the Southern and Central Great Plains while a few mid-level disturbances move over the area from the southwest. Surface high pressure will move further southeast, becoming centered across the Southwest Atlantic while a warm front develops from low pressure across the Central Plains, extending southeast toward the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Expect continued increasing clouds Sunday night into Monday with rain showers becoming likely across the northwest Sunday night and expanding southeast during the day Monday. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid 50s far north and northeast to near 50 far south and southwest. Highs Monday will range from the lower 60s in the higher elevations far east to around 70 far south and southwest.
Tuesday.
The first shortwave trough will rapidly move east-northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night while another shortwave impulse becomes better defined Monday evening over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region and approaches the area from the southwest. Surface low pressure will become better organized across South-Central Oklahoma with a diffuse warm front remaining to our southwest with surface high pressure remaining to our east across the Southwest Atlantic Basin.
Cloudy skies with an increase in showers is forecast over much of the area during the early morning hours on Tuesday, followed by decreasing chances northwest later in the morning hours. Rain chances will continue to decrease across the northwest during the afternoon hours, especially near and northwest of Interstate 59 while the best chances for rain will continue southeast of Interstate 85 through the afternoon. Thunder potential has decreased and would be confined to the far southern tier of counties during this time frame. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 59s areawide with highs from the lower 60s northwest and across the higher elevations far east to readings in the lower 70s generally near and southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor.
Wednesday through Friday.
A sharp positively-tilted longwave trough will swing east over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Region early Wednesday then quickly lit northeast toward the Atlantic Seaboard toward evening. A northwest flow pattern will be left in its wake into Thursday. Available global model guidance maintains a slight northwest to a zonal flow pattern over the area into Thursday while one solution brings a shortwave southeast over the area Thursday night, will discount that depiction as an outlier for now. Shortwave ridging builds over the area from the west on Friday while two solutions tries to develop a trough over the Central Plains later in the day on Friday. An end to the shower activity will come as a cold front sweeps southeast across the area early on Wednesday. Another reinforcing cold front will move into the area early on Thursday followed by surface high pressure migrating southeast from the Northern Plains into the region later in the day. Surface high pressure will move northeast and become centered across the Mid Atlantic Region early on Friday.
Skies will become partly cloudy northwest while remaining mostly cloudy southeast as some lingering showers will remain possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor Wednesday morning, followed by a return to dry conditions areawide with continued gradual clearing skies from the west and northwest through the rest of the day on Wednesday. Dry conditions will accompany Wednesday morning lows across the northwest near freezing while readings will be in the lower 40s southeast. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s far north and across the higher elevations east to the lower 50s across the southern third of the area.
Fair skies with dry conditions are forecast Thursday and Friday with a widespread freeze forecast both mornings with lows in the 20s areawide. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the low 50s far south Thursday and will moderate into the 50s areawide on Friday.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2024
VFR conditions and light winds are expected tonight and for much of the daylight hours on Sunday. Cloud bases will gradually lower, with light to moderate rain spreading eastward Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening across the northern terminals. Cigs will lower to MVFR and IFR Sunday evening at the northern terminals. MGM will be on the southern fringes through this TAF cycle and only have a PROB30 mention of -RA there. Southerly winds will also increase Sunday night.
32/JDavis
FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity values will rebound tonight into the 60s to low 80s with light winds. Chances for showers will increase by daybreak on Sunday across the west and spread eastward through the day. Minimum relative humidity values on Sunday will be in the low to upper 30 percent range across the eastern half of the forecast area, with the lowest in the southeast. Relative humidity values will be in 40s and 50s before the rain in the west. Several waves of rain will be possible through early Wednesday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 30 57 46 66 / 0 50 100 90 Anniston 34 60 49 66 / 0 40 90 90 Birmingham 38 58 51 66 / 10 70 100 90 Tuscaloosa 37 58 52 68 / 10 80 100 80 Calera 36 59 51 68 / 0 60 100 90 Auburn 38 61 52 64 / 0 20 70 90 Montgomery 37 63 53 69 / 0 30 80 90 Troy 36 65 53 69 / 0 20 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KANB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KANB
Wind History Graph: ANB
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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