Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paradise Valley, AZ

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will continue to remain above average through this weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s across the region. A dry weather system is expected to arrive late Monday into Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions to our region. The much drier air will also result in chilly mornings with readings falling to near or below freezing in some locations by Wednesday morning. Rebounding temperatures are expected by late next week.

DISCUSSION
Taking a glance at current wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis, our region is sandwiched between two upper-lvl features including a cutoff low to the east and a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. Dry northeasterly flow is present over the forecast area, keeping skies cloudless and allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 70s across the lower deserts. The high in Phoenix is expected to be 77 degrees this afternoon which is 10 degrees above average. This has been an abnormally warm start to December with a mean temperature of 8.6 degrees above normal through the first 6 days of the month.

Luckily we are anticipating a pattern change early next week which will bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures to our area. After a mild and dry weekend with temperatures around 5-8 degrees above average, a positively tilted shortwave trough will dive through the Intermountain West beginning Monday. This trough will serve to reduce 500 mb hghts and drag a cold front through the region. The front should arrive Monday afternoon, bringing windy conditions to SE California and the Colorado River Valley where gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph. The post-frontal airmass will be extremely dry with dewpoints plummeting into the single digits by Tuesday morning.
Lingering breeziness is expected on Tuesday as the sfc high to the NE induces a strong pressure gradient across the lower deserts.
Highs on Tuesday will be closer to average in the mid to upper 60s across the area and upper 50s in the higher terrain of S Gila County. Clear skies and lighter winds Tuesday night will allow for temperatures to plummet into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the lower deserts. Some locations such as Blythe, Casa Grande, Wickenburg, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos may reach freezing.
The NBM still shows 40-60% chance of those locations reaching the freezing mark on Wednesday morning.

After the trough departs to our east, ridging will quickly return to the Western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon resulting in a rebound in high temperatures. However, cluster analysis indicates the magnitude of the ridge will not be as strong late next week due another trough entering the Pacific NW. Either way, temperatures will likely rise to around 3 to 5 degrees above average across the lower deserts by Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions are also expected to persist across the region through at least the end of next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 2325Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated under SKC skies tonight with FEW high cloud decks pushing into the region by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will follow more typical diurnal patterns, with speeds mostly AOB 6 kt sustained and periods of variability preceding direction shifts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns will exist through the next 24 hours under clear skies, with FEW-SCT high clouds returning by late Sunday morning. Winds will be light (AOB 5 kt through much of the TAF period) with periods of VRB before a southerly flow takes hold late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions will continue through at least the next week.
Temperatures will continue to remain well above normal through Monday, although a slight cooling trend will commence over the weekend. Expect overall light winds somewhat following diurnal wind patterns through the weekend. Across SE CA and the lower CO River Vally, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Monday afternoon and evening where winds could gust into the 25-35 mph range. On Tuesday, expect breezy conditions across the area.
MinRHs will be in the teens across SE CA and SW AZ and in the 20s across south-central AZ through Monday. Much drier air moves in on Tuesday with minRHS dropping to 5-10% across the region.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.