Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paradise Valley, AZ

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will cool through the middle of the week as a dry weather system moves into the region. Associated with this weather disturbance, gusty winds will be common the next several days.
Temperatures should slowly rebound during the latter half of the week eventually hovering around the seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION
A blocking pattern which has predominated the Conus will slowly open over the next several days as a series of progressive Pacific disturbances and strong jet energy dislodge cutoff negative height anomalies across the lower Mississippi River valley. H5 heights near 585dm over the SW Conus which have supported temperatures some 10F above normal will gradually erode closer to 572dm over the next 72 hours as modest height falls enter the region. While the primary cold core/circulation center and strongest forcing will remain north of the forecast area, sufficient jet energy and higher momentum within a seasonally deep mixing depth will result in periodically gusty winds early in the week. With models depicting 25-35kt winds developing in a H8-H7 layer corresponding to the incoming height falls and weakening frontal boundary, confidence is very good that enhanced gusts will impacts much of the region beginning in SE California Monday, then migrating eastward Tuesday. An enhanced fire danger and localized blowing dust may be the most significant hazards with this weather system passage.

Although the Conus pattern will remain slowly progressive during the latter half of the week, some measure of broad cyclonic, or quasi- zonal flow will settle over the Southwest. As such, forecast confidence is good that H5 heights should hover in a 576-579dm range with the pattern configuration prohibiting significant height rises or rapid warming. Instead, narrow guidance spread suggests readings returning to a near normal mid-May level persisting into the weekend. Ensemble spread starts growing notably towards the end of the period as membership is split between maintaining negative height anomalies over the SW Conus, or shifting mean troughing into the eastern Conus and allowing broad ridging to materialize over the forecast area. CMC members remain the most amplified with negative anomalies centered over the forecast area with trends in GEFS membership pointing towards higher probabilities of amplified heights and/or flat ridging. At this time, these disparate solutions form an ensemble mean not far from a typical, dry quasi-zonal May pattern.

AVIATION
Updated at 0000Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: No aviation concerns are anticipated through the forecast period.
Winds will remain light, aob 8 kts out of the WSW over the next several hours before becoming easterly at KPHX and KIWA by 07-09Z.
Winds will increase out of the S-SE after sunrise tomorrow morning, resulting in a southerly cross-runway component at KPHX for approx 3-4 hours before ultimately shifting out of the SW by the early afternoon. Gusts between 20-25 kts will be common from the late afternoon through the early evening at all terminals.
High clouds will continue to overspread the region tonight and into tomorrow with bases remaining aoa 15 kft AGL.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will be the primary aviation concern at the southeast CA terminals, especially by tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will continue to remain westerly at KIPL and southerly to southwesterly at KBLH through the period. Intermittent gusts to around 20 kts will be possible at both terminals through this evening before diminishing overnight. By tomorrow morning through the afternoon, stronger gusts will materialize at both terminals, reaching 25-30 kts at times. There is a medium probability 30-50% of gusts exceeding 35 kts at KIPL by tomorrow evening. High clouds will continue to overspread the region through tomorrow with bases remaining aoa 20 kft AGL.

FIRE WEATHER
An elevated fire danger will exist Monday and Tuesday as warm temperatures, low humidity levels, and gusty winds become juxtaposed with receptive, dry fine fuels. Afternoon humidity levels in the teens will be common throughout the week following poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-50%. Wind should be strongest Monday and Tuesday with gusts 25-35 mph during the afternoon and early evening.
Gusts will likely be most pronounced across ridge tops and in the typical downsloping areas. Speeds should weaken during the latter half of the week, though still will retain the usual upslope gustiness. Temperatures will also cool during the middle of the week as the weather system moves into the region, however should rebound closer to the seasonal normal by the end of the week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ562.