Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:54PM Sunday January 26, 2020 4:40 AM MST (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 261005 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 305 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue today as high pressure predominates across the western states. A series of weak low pressure systems will move through the Four Corners next week. However, only light precipitation is expected across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Another warming trend is expected for later in the week with warmer deserts climbing into the middle to upper 70s by the weekend.

DISCUSSION. As shown in the most recent plot data, a modest upper level high pressure ridge was situated over the desert southwest; 500mb heights had climbed 10-20m and typically ranged from 575 to 578dm over the lower deserts. The high in Phoenix yesterday was 73 degrees. Little change is expected today and although heights begin to fall off later in the day as a fast moving short wave approaches from the northwest, high temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with lower deserts in the low to mid 70s. IR imagery at 2 am showed a bit of thin high clouds over the area and some high cloud will linger today but overall we can expect mostly sunny skies.

There are really no significant changes in the forecast for this upcoming week as generally dry conditions will persist each day, especially for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. As has been forecast for several days, the aforementioned fast moving wave will dive southeast across Arizona tonight into Monday, bringing a few light showers to the higher terrain east of Phoenix. This will be a dry system for our area and once again, virtually all of the GEFS ensemble members keep any measurable rain just northeast of our southern Gila County zones. NAEFS POPs have climbed a bit, but we will still keep POPs mainly in the 10 to 15 percent range on Monday over the high terrain zones. Best rain threat will be east of Globe. In addition to the system being dry it will not even usher in much cooling; a few degrees of cooling are likely east of Phoenix but the lower deserts will stay above normal and mostly in the low to mid 70s.

Neither the Monday wave nor the upper low moving though the area Wednesday will be very wet; there is no evidence of any IVT into the area with either system and current GEFS plumes for Phoenix keeps nearly a flat line at 0.00 for the entire week. Guidance, including ensemble output from NAEFS and GEFS, continue to call for flow to amplify along the west coast mid-week allowing another fast moving wave to drop south out of Nevada and Utah and move quickly though Arizona. This fast moving low (which becomes closed off as it traverses the state) has a dry overland trajectory and is now forecast to track a bit further to the east with the low center moving through far eastern Arizona and near the New Mexico border. This will only bring a few light showers to high terrain areas east of Phoenix mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. GEFS ensemble guidance actually does have a few members bringing around 0.01 inch contours into south central Arizona with the low, but overall it will be pretty dry. POPs remain low, with slight chances called for east of Phoenix but virtually no rain chances in the greater Phoenix area. The low will not even usher in appreciable cool air as forecast highs on Wednesday generally stay near 70 or in the low 70s over the lower deserts. Would not be surprised to see highs reach into the upper 60s over portions of south central Arizona however.

The main impact of this system will be the breezy to windy conditions that will set up mainly to the west of Phoenix. Gusty winds over 30 mph are likely over the western deserts during afternoon hours and we may need a wind advisory for zones including along the lower Colorado River valley as we move further into the week. Expect some amount of blowing dust and sand due to the strong gradient winds.

Later Thursday into the weekend, strong high pressure aloft gradually builds east and into the desert southwest with 500mb heights climbing above 584dm over the western deserts with warmest conditions into the far southeast California deserts. We will likely see a nice warming trend over the weekend with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s. Warmest deserts could see highs approach 80 degrees by next Sunday and that would represent readings nearly 10 degrees above seasonal normal levels.

AVIATION. Updated at 0510Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT . Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

There are no major aviation weather concerns through the TAF period. Winds will remain light, mostly at or below 7 kts, with directions favoring diurnal directional tendencies. There will also be periods of calm/variable winds. High clouds will persist throughout the forecast period and lower from 25 kft to about 15 kft by Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will warm to above seasonal normal levels during the period with warmer deserts generally low to middle 70s each day. Conditions will be mostly dry with minimum humidity values dropping into the 20-30% range across the lower desert and 30-40% range for the higher terrain. It will be slightly drier next Tuesday and Wednesday as desert humidity levels fall into the upper teens in many areas. Winds will remain fairly light although the Lower Colorado River Valley may see some gusts up to 20 mph Thursday and Friday. There are indications that another weather system could bring a slight chance for rain early next week mainly over high terrain areas to the east of Phoenix.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . CB AVIATION . Hodges/Deems FIRE WEATHER . Deems/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi47 minSSW 310.00 miFair46°F39°F79%1018.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi47 minNNE 410.00 miFair47°F39°F74%1018.7 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi49 minE 510.00 miFair51°F42°F71%1018.3 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi46 minNE 610.00 miFair51°F41°F69%1018.4 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi1.7 hrsNNE 410.00 miFair47°F42°F83%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSDL

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS4W3CalmW6W3NW3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3S3CalmW5W5W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm3CalmW33S3W4W3CalmN3NE3N3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.