Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:26AM||Sunset 5:54PM||Sunday January 26, 2020 4:40 AM MST (11:40 UTC)||Moonrise 8:51AM||Moonset 7:44PM||Illumination 2%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 261005 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 305 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020
SYNOPSIS. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue today as high pressure predominates across the western states. A series of weak low pressure systems will move through the Four Corners next week. However, only light precipitation is expected across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Another warming trend is expected for later in the week with warmer deserts climbing into the middle to upper 70s by the weekend.
DISCUSSION. As shown in the most recent plot data, a modest upper level high pressure ridge was situated over the desert southwest; 500mb heights had climbed 10-20m and typically ranged from 575 to 578dm over the lower deserts. The high in Phoenix yesterday was 73 degrees. Little change is expected today and although heights begin to fall off later in the day as a fast moving short wave approaches from the northwest, high temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with lower deserts in the low to mid 70s. IR imagery at 2 am showed a bit of thin high clouds over the area and some high cloud will linger today but overall we can expect mostly sunny skies.
There are really no significant changes in the forecast for this upcoming week as generally dry conditions will persist each day, especially for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. As has been forecast for several days, the aforementioned fast moving wave will dive southeast across Arizona tonight into Monday, bringing a few light showers to the higher terrain east of Phoenix. This will be a dry system for our area and once again, virtually all of the GEFS ensemble members keep any measurable rain just northeast of our southern Gila County zones. NAEFS POPs have climbed a bit, but we will still keep POPs mainly in the 10 to 15 percent range on Monday over the high terrain zones. Best rain threat will be east of Globe. In addition to the system being dry it will not even usher in much cooling; a few degrees of cooling are likely east of Phoenix but the lower deserts will stay above normal and mostly in the low to mid 70s.
Neither the Monday wave nor the upper low moving though the area Wednesday will be very wet; there is no evidence of any IVT into the area with either system and current GEFS plumes for Phoenix keeps nearly a flat line at 0.00 for the entire week. Guidance, including ensemble output from NAEFS and GEFS, continue to call for flow to amplify along the west coast mid-week allowing another fast moving wave to drop south out of Nevada and Utah and move quickly though Arizona. This fast moving low (which becomes closed off as it traverses the state) has a dry overland trajectory and is now forecast to track a bit further to the east with the low center moving through far eastern Arizona and near the New Mexico border. This will only bring a few light showers to high terrain areas east of Phoenix mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. GEFS ensemble guidance actually does have a few members bringing around 0.01 inch contours into south central Arizona with the low, but overall it will be pretty dry. POPs remain low, with slight chances called for east of Phoenix but virtually no rain chances in the greater Phoenix area. The low will not even usher in appreciable cool air as forecast highs on Wednesday generally stay near 70 or in the low 70s over the lower deserts. Would not be surprised to see highs reach into the upper 60s over portions of south central Arizona however.
The main impact of this system will be the breezy to windy conditions that will set up mainly to the west of Phoenix. Gusty winds over 30 mph are likely over the western deserts during afternoon hours and we may need a wind advisory for zones including along the lower Colorado River valley as we move further into the week. Expect some amount of blowing dust and sand due to the strong gradient winds.
Later Thursday into the weekend, strong high pressure aloft gradually builds east and into the desert southwest with 500mb heights climbing above 584dm over the western deserts with warmest conditions into the far southeast California deserts. We will likely see a nice warming trend over the weekend with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s. Warmest deserts could see highs approach 80 degrees by next Sunday and that would represent readings nearly 10 degrees above seasonal normal levels.
AVIATION. Updated at 0510Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT . Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
There are no major aviation weather concerns through the TAF period. Winds will remain light, mostly at or below 7 kts, with directions favoring diurnal directional tendencies. There will also be periods of calm/variable winds. High clouds will persist throughout the forecast period and lower from 25 kft to about 15 kft by Sunday evening.
FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will warm to above seasonal normal levels during the period with warmer deserts generally low to middle 70s each day. Conditions will be mostly dry with minimum humidity values dropping into the 20-30% range across the lower desert and 30-40% range for the higher terrain. It will be slightly drier next Tuesday and Wednesday as desert humidity levels fall into the upper teens in many areas. Winds will remain fairly light although the Lower Colorado River Valley may see some gusts up to 20 mph Thursday and Friday. There are indications that another weather system could bring a slight chance for rain early next week mainly over high terrain areas to the east of Phoenix.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . CB AVIATION . Hodges/Deems FIRE WEATHER . Deems/CB
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||5 mi||47 min||SSW 3||10.00 mi||Fair||46°F||39°F||79%||1018.9 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||6 mi||47 min||NNE 4||10.00 mi||Fair||47°F||39°F||74%||1018.7 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||12 mi||49 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Fair||51°F||42°F||71%||1018.3 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||18 mi||46 min||NE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||51°F||41°F||69%||1018.4 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||20 mi||1.7 hrs||NNE 4||10.00 mi||Fair||47°F||42°F||83%||1018.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSDL
Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||S||Calm||W||W||W||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||W||S||W||W||Calm||N||NE||N||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (6,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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