Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:56AM||Sunset 6:24PM||Saturday February 27, 2021 4:58 AM MST (11:58 UTC)||Moonrise 7:02PM||Moonset 7:32AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 271014 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 314 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021
SYNOPSIS. A dry weather system moving through on Sunday will bring another round of cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions. High pressure will briefly settle back into the region early next week, before a weather system likely moves through during the middle of next week potentially bringing a return to rain chances. Temperatures next week will start off at or just above seasonal normals before a more significant warming trend likely takes place late next week.
DISCUSSION. Dry conditions and clear to mostly clear skies remain across the region with an upper level trough slowly moving through the Great Basin. For today, westerly flow aloft will be increasing as the trough to our north sags farther southward resulting in some daytime breeziness, but gusts at likely to remain below 25 mph. Little change in temperatures is expected as highs are forecast to mainly reach into the lower 70s.
By tonight, a shortwave trough digging down the backside of the larger trough to our north is forecast to deepen slightly as it tracks southward into northern Arizona. Very little moisture is seen with this incoming system, so most areas will continue to see clear skies on Sunday. However, as the center of the trough tracks into central Arizona Sunday afternoon, there should be enough moisture to bring some mid level cumulus and maybe a few isolated light showers along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains. Gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions will likely be the biggest concerns for Sunday as gusts to 35 mph and low RHs are forecast across the Lower CO River Valley. Elsewhere, winds are likely to become breezy starting Sunday afternoon with gusts at times reaching 25 mph. After the dry cold front pushes through early Sunday, temperatures will likely only top out near 65 degrees as highs have trended several degrees lower over the past several model runs. Overall, despite most areas seeing quite a bit of sunshine on Sunday, the breezy conditions and cooler air mass will likely make it feel quite chilly.
Upper level ridging moving into the region and warmer temperatures will then be seen on Monday, likely lingering through Tuesday. Forecast highs are seen climbing into the lower 70s on Monday and then into the mid 70s on Tuesday under clear to mostly clear skies.
The weather system for the middle of next week is starting to look a bit more promising for our region as there is at least some resolution in the initial stages of the likely closed low development off the West Coast early next week. A vast majority of the ensemble output now shows the low digging southward just off the West Coast Monday into Tuesday, but when and where the low eventually tracks eastward into the Southwest U.S. is still somewhat uncertain. How long this potential closed low sits just off the southern California coast will likely determine how much moisture can get entrained into the system and our eventual rain chances. The ensemble cluster analysis is still quite divided in this aspect with a faster and drier solution likely giving only high terrain rain chances and another solution mostly weakening the low well to our west and giving us essentially no chance of rain. However, a higher percentage of the ensemble members point toward a stronger closed low that is somewhat progressive moving across Arizona sometime Wednesday, but rain chances still do not look all that impressive as moisture levels are likely to be fairly limited. Obviously, a decent amount of uncertainty as far as rain chances remains with this mid week system, but for now it is our only realistic chance for any rainfall over the next week or so.
Temperatures through the middle of the week are still somewhat uncertain, but the median NBM guidance continues to indicate highs may stay in the mid 70s through Thursday. For next Friday into the following weekend, ensembles are still in good agreement showing a large scale ridge pushing through much of the Western U.S. bringing a strong warming trend and highs potentially in a 80-85 degree range.
AVIATION. Updated at 0505Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather issues will exist through Saturday night under clear skies. Overnight easterly winds in the Phoenix metro will likely turn westerly somewhat earlier than usual Saturday, then remain in a westerly orientation well into Saturday night. In SE California, north winds will eventually become the predominant direction by late morning, and may occasionally become gusty Saturday afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday with minimum humidities near 10% and mostly light winds. By Wednesday, a weather system is likely to move into the region bringing at least chances for wetting rains across the high terrain, potentially into the lower deserts. Moisture levels do look to increase, but not dramatically as min RHs may improve to 15-20% through Thursday. Winds may also become breezy at times. By Friday, increasing high pressure and drying conditions should bring much warmer temperatures with lower desert highs likely pushing into the 80s.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . MO FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||5 mi||66 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||47°F||20°F||34%||1009.8 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||6 mi||66 min||Var 3||10.00 mi||Fair||44°F||17°F||34%||1009.9 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||12 mi||68 min||E 8||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||48°F||19°F||32%||1009.4 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||18 mi||65 min||NNE 5||10.00 mi||Fair||47°F||17°F||30%||1009.4 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||20 mi||61 min||NNW 6||10.00 mi||Fair||42°F||20°F||42%||1009.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSDL
Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||Calm||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||Calm||Calm||W||Calm||SE||Calm||E||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||S||S||W||SW||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||Calm|
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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