Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday August 25, 2019 3:30 PM MST (22:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:43AMMoonset 3:17PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 251732
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
1030 am mst Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
After near normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels
today, a significant warming trend will begin on Monday. Drier
air will also move into the region through at least the first
half of the week while strong high pressure remains in place. This
will allow high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday to top out at
or just above 110 degrees in many lower desert communities.

Moisture levels may increase enough during the latter half of the
week to provide minimal chances for storms and a slight cooldown,
but temperatures will continue to run several degrees above
normals.

Discussion
Current upper level analysis shows an elongated upper level high
pressure ridge over the southwestern u.S. With the upper level
remnants of t.D. Ivo moving northward through central baja. The
00z area soundings continued to show ample low level moisture and
plenty of elevated instability, but a very strong mid level
inversion remains. The northerly dry flow in the mid levels will
continue today reinforcing the capping inversion and prevent any
storms across the region. This scenario will continue into early
Monday with another low level moisture surge tonight as well as a
period of high cloudiness from ivo. However, during the day
Monday, mixing should be more efficient than over the weekend
eroding away some of the excess lower level moisture. Since the
upper level heights will be near steady-state Monday into Tuesday,
the lowering boundary layer moisture will allow temperatures to
quickly warm up. Highs Monday should top out a few degrees above
normal, but fall short of 110 degrees.

Little has changed with the forecast thinking for another likely
heat episode beginning Tuesday and lasting through at least
Wednesday. The elongated upper level ridge will become better
organized beginning Tuesday with a high center forming somewhere
across the desert southwest. Forecast 500mb heights of 592-594dm
and 850mb temps climbing to around 30c should yield daily highs of
110-112 degrees across the lower deserts for at least Tuesday and
likely Wednesday. This will be enough for excessive heat
headlines, but the issue starts with what happens after Wednesday.

For several days, models were showing the high center shifting to
our northeast opening up much of the area to an easterly moist
flow, but the past couple model runs now show the high center
either staying directly over arizona or even shifting over
southern california. This subtle shift means moisture levels are
probably going to remain on the low side later in the week and
consequently keep temperatures higher than previously thought.

Because of this we have increased forecast temperatures for
Thursday through Saturday with highs generally 107-110 degrees.

Any higher and we will have to worry about a prolonged period of
marginal excessive heat conditions. Storm chances are still in the
forecast beginning Wednesday, but pops have been trimmed from
previous forecast packages and are mainly confined to higher
terrain areas across eastern arizona. This may very well change
again if models shift the high center back to the east, but for
now the bulk of the ensemble guidance shows a drier and slightly
warmer latter half of the week.

Aviation Updated at 1730 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
winds will be the primary forecast issue through Monday afternoon
with overall weather conditions not too dissimilar from Saturday
afternoon evening. Few-sct fair weather CU forming off surrounding
mountains will have bases increasing from fl050 to fl080 through the
afternoon before evaporating prior to sunset. Westerly sfc winds
will prevail through most of the period with only some variability
in outlying terminal sites Monday morning. The more unusual aspect
is another bout of gusty winds (around 20 kt) likely not settling
into the phoenix area until later in the evening and overnight due
to another surge of moisture from the sw. Confidence in this outcome
is moderate.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
wind shifts and occasional gustiness will the main forecast
challenge through Monday afternoon. Shallow fair weather CU were
already dissipating to some extent late this morning; and other than
high cirrus, more extensive building clouds should be limited over
mountains this afternoon. Some form of a southerly wind component
should prevail though large amounts of variability are possible -
particularly at kipl. Confidence in timing any wind direction shifts
and potential gusts is only low to moderate.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Tuesday through Saturday:
dry conditions will persist into the middle of the week with
increasing thunderstorms chances later in the week focused mainly
over higher terrain locations. Before the dry airmass gives way to
more humid weather, temperatures will once again warm near excessive
levels as afternoon highs peak some 5f-10f above average. Midweek
afternoon humidity levels will fall into the teens, but increase
closer to a 20-30% range late in the week. Occasionally gusty
upslope terrain winds are likely through the week, though nothing
particularly unusual for the season.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Kuhlman
aviation... Mo
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi38 minW 9 G 1510.00 miFair99°F64°F33%1009.6 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi38 minW 9 G 1410.00 miFair99°F66°F34%1009.4 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi40 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy99°F64°F33%1009 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi37 minVar 510.00 miFair98°F66°F35%1009.3 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi93 minSW 9 G 1910.00 miFair100°F66°F34%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSDL

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10
G15
W9W9SW8----W7W6--W13
G20
W8
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--W6W4--W33--5W7NW6W8SW10W9
G15
1 day ago--SW66W6--------W12
G17
W5
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W7W54W3CalmCalmS4S5CalmCalmSW7--56
G17
2 days agoSE4--NW5------SW10--S8
G14
--CalmE4E3NW3--W3S7CalmNW4CalmCalmS6--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.