Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 7:40PM Monday July 13, 2020 4:25 AM MST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:27AMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 131113 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 413 AM MST Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Abnormally strong high pressure will remain over the area into the early part of the week with excessive heat continuing through today. Beginning tomorrow, lower elevation high temperatures will remain near 110 degrees the rest of this week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible the next few afternoons and evenings, mostly over areas east of Phoenix.

DISCUSSION. The early morning hours have not been without some interesting weather. Latest radar analysis shows decaying weak showers near Casa Grande while a weak thunderstorm moves northeasterly through Gila County along US-60. Closer to home, the temperature at Sky Harbor has finally dipped below 100 degrees after a pocket of dry northwesterly wind allowed the temperature to jump up to 106 degrees shortly after midnight. With a fair amount of overnight clouds, we may set another daily warm-low temperature record. The current record for July 13th is 93 degrees (2006).

Today is the last day of the Excessive Heat Warning as temperatures will remain well above normal. After the excessive heat, the forecast for most of the week is fairly unremarkable with relatively little change from day-to-day. Broad troughing across the northern Intermountain West will flatten the subtropical ridge of high pressure and dampen atmospheric heights. The NAEFS mean height guidance shows H5 levels decreasing to 590-592dm by mid week which is around the seasonal climatological average. This will result in a modest cooldown of a few degrees with afternoon highs dropping into the 107-110 degree range.

The eastern half of the state will retain daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the forecast period. For the lower desert, storm chances on most days are less than 10 percent, and truthfully, much closer to zero, as conditions generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms. The latest available High Resolution Ensemble Forecast initiates convection this afternoon over the White Mountains and southeastern Arizona while staying away from the Valley. However, the most aggressive HREF output does support the possibility for those southeastern AZ storms to send northward moving outflows towards the Valley. If this does occur, and if those outflows are adequately strong and travel through the Pinal County Interstate-10 dust corridor, parts of the Valley could see a dust storm. However, the probability of this outcome is very low.

Nevertheless, nightly gulf surges and moisture advection from distant convection will keep surface dew points from completely withering away. Ensemble guidance shows some hints that the monsoon could become more active across the lower desert by the end of this week if the subtropical ridge restrengthens near New Mexico with the western flank of the ridge expanding into Arizona. This would provide deep southerly flow and better moisture advection through most of Arizona, and if combined with minor disturbances and/or inverted troughs circling through the upper air pattern, we could finally see storms in the desert.

AVIATION. Updated at 1115Z.

A few weak showers are currently well south of the terminals. These are expected to result in continued clouds aoa 15 kft and possibly a weak outflow boundary, but no precipitation near the terminals. Wind speeds are generally out of the south, although some pockets of localized variable winds are also occurring. During the day Monday skies will be mainly clear with breezy westerly winds of near 10 kts with a few gusts to 15-20 kts. As in previous days, thunderstorms will occur along the foothills east of town during the afternoon and evening, with a slight chance of an outflow boundary moving into the Phoenix area. Light diurnal easterly flow may return very late Monday night.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Skies will be mainly clear with periods of high clouds. At KIPL winds will be mainly out of the west with some gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon. At KBLH winds will initially be out of the south. Winds will veer to southwest or west with some gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER. Wednesday through Sunday: No changes to the forecast . Dry conditions and above normal temperatures can be expected all week with lower deserts seeing highs in the 107-112 degree range. Daytime minimum humidity values will be around 10-20% for most places while overnight recoveries will rise into the 30-50% range for most places, with the highest values over the high terrain. Wind speeds will be light most days, outside of typical afternoon breezes up to 20-25 mph, with directions following local terrain influences. Moisture will fluctuate some, but the atmosphere will likely remain too stable for much thunderstorm coverage in most locations. Gila County will stand the best chance of seeing isolated activity throughout the next week.

CLIMATE.

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures

Date Phoenix AZ | Yuma AZ | El Centro CA ---- ----------- ------- ------------

7/13 114 in 2005 115 in 1983 118 in 1939

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>563.

CA . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ560>570.



DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Hodges FIRE WEATHER . Smith/Hodges CLIMATE . MO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi32 minVar 410.00 miFair96°F55°F25%1006.1 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi32 minSW 610.00 miFair95°F54°F25%1005.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi34 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy98°F55°F24%1005 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair96°F54°F24%1005.7 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi87 minSW 1310.00 miFair96°F53°F24%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSDL

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3Calm4S4SE54453SW7W7W6SW4SW4SW3E4CalmN3NW3SE3S34
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmW3W4S4Calm6W7W11
G14
W7SW10W10SW12Calm3S3W3CalmW3NW5NW4N3NE3
2 days agoW4Calm3NW4NW3W34--W53W8
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W8W10W10W6W3W4NW3CalmCalmNW4SE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.