Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Myrtle Beach, SC

UPDATE
Evening update to adjust POP based on current and expected storm coverage through the evening. Although many of the CAMs keep convection going for another few hours, current radar is showing an obvious weakening trend along with a reduction in coverage.
While SBCAPE remains high, the highest MLCAPE has shifted inland, which is where the few remaining storms that survive continue to thrive. The lack of any outside forcing and a weaker Piedmont trough compared to yesterday will bring an end to shower and thunderstorm chances locally within the next hour.

May have some fog issue overnight, especially across inland areas that did see storms yesterday and today. Closer to the coast boundary layer winds are a bit stronger than last night so not expecting much if any fog across coastal counties.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Synoptic pattern remains essentially the same through the near term period perhaps a slightly stronger ridge to the west Tuesday. For this afternoon lower pops remain in place near the sea breeze then a shift inland with activity that develops in the lee of the mountains then drifts east before dying. For Tuesday it appears a sea breeze shower kind of day with the band moving well inland during the afternoon hours. Regarding temperatures nothing really stands out with highs a couple of degrees either side of 90 and lows generally in the middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Similar setup Wednesday as Tuesday with an inland lee trough and Bermuda sfc high pressure offshore. The high nudges westwards midweek, allowing for a slight uptick in southerly gradient winds. Rain chances at 50-60% are a bit above climo due to the best deep layer moisture of any day this week, along with the typical forcing mechanisms of the sea breeze, lee trough and daytime sfc heating. High temps are right at normal for this time of year...highs around 90 degrees most areas with heat indices maxing out close to 100 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PoPs in the chance range each day this period with a fairly steady synoptic pattern of weak ridging aloft coming in from the south, an inland thermal trough, and Bermuda high pressure. Of note is the increasing heat risk through the week, with conditions very close to around Heat Advisory criteria each day; highest heat risk is over the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Currently VFR at all sites. Along the coast expect VFR to continue tonight with perhaps some patchy MVFR ceilings for CRE. Boundary layer winds along the coast are stronger than they were last night and the mixed layer is a little deeper. This should prevent any fog development and help keep any ceilings that develop above 1k.

For inland sites anticipate another night of short duration IFR with light boundary layer winds allowing for IFR visibility, and possibly ceilings. Slightly better chances at FLO tonight because of the rain that fell there late afternoon/early evening from a lone thunderstorm.

Expecting a similar day tomorrow to what occurred today. No real change in air mass with the storms being driven by daytime heating, the sea breeze, the Piedmont trough and any storm outflow. Coverage will be limited, like it was today, with favored locations difficult to pick out 18-24 hours in advance.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning fog/stratus.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...A typical synoptic summer pattern will be in place through the period for the marine community. Winds will be from the south/southeast essentially sea breeze driven as the inland/Piedmont trough is very weak and arguably non existent at times. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet at most.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Winds consistently out of the S to SW this period with Bermuda high pressure offshore and daily sea breezes with winds up to 15-20 kt at times, but mostly in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will average 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft at times starting Thursday night as 7-8 second SE swell builds slightly.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.