Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Myrtle Beach, SC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Beach, SC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 081924 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 324 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight through Saturday. Dry weather and pleasant temperatures are expected.
Moisture returning from the south Sunday night into Monday will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front should reach the Carolinas Tuesday and may stall near the coast through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Light NW flow (more SW along the coast due to a light sea breeze)
will become calm tonight in the midst of a weak pressure gradient.
There is a small chance for convection along the sea breeze in SC this afternoon but activity is shaping up to be isolated as better coverage sticks closer to the cold front stalled to our south. With the calm winds and clearing skies, tried to account for possible radiational cooling, especially in northern Pender and Bladen counties. Lows should fall in the mid 50s far inland, upper 50s/near 60 closer to the coast. Traditionally colder spots could fall into the lower 50s, maybe even upper 40s.

Headed into Friday, NW flow continues with the NAM noticeably cooler than other guidance. CAA is expected through the day, and it may be intensified by a passing shortwave to our south. This may end up developing an area of surface low pressure along the stalled front south of our area. This would lead to warmer temperatures in our far southern counties while inland areas would resolve cooler. Highs expected to be in the low to mid 80s following this pattern. The dry air from the NW and encroaching high pressure will lead to dry conditions through the period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An uncharacteristically cool and dry airmass will build across the Carolinas Friday night, pushed in by Canadian high pressure centered just west of the central Appalachians. Precipitable water near 0.7 inches is below the 10th percentile for this time of year, and 850 mb temps of +11 to +12C are near the 10th percentile. This should make Friday night a rare "windows open" June night with lows 55-60 for most areas, 1-2 degrees below guidance consensus given the good radiational cooling anticipated.

The high will move across the southern Appalachians Saturday morning and then off the North Carolina coast during the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s will keep the airmass thermodynamically stable to deep convection and a zero PoP is in the forecast. Forecast highs range from 80 on the beaches to the upper 80s along I-95.

The high will drift off the coast Saturday night, but it appears the nocturnal inversion will set up before significant airmass modification can occur. I'm again leaning toward the lower end of guidance with forecast lows 60-65 except a little warmer at the beaches.

It's interesting to note that a cool, cloudy May has led to well below normal beach water temperatures, some of the chilliest we've seen in early June going back 20 years. Normally we're in the upper 70s to near 80 in the surf by the second week of June, but not this year!

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The airmass should moisten rapidly Sunday as southerly winds behind departing high pressure bring air from Cuba and the Bahamas northward across the Carolinas. Dewpoints should return into the 60s Sunday, then 70s on Monday as this tropical air builds in.

A significant upper level low will take shape across Lake Superior and Wisconsin on Sunday. Cyclonic upper flow across much of the eastern U.S. will contain a well defined shortwave that should cross the coastal Carolinas on Monday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop Sunday afternoon inland as the airmass destabilizes, but more significant and widespread convection should await the arrival of the shortwave late Sunday night into Monday. Models begin to show a wider spread in the shape of the mid and upper flow Monday night into Tuesday as multiple days of convection across the Plains and southern U.S.
leads to uncertainty in the position of shortwaves and an approaching cold front which should reach the coastal Carolinas sometime on Tuesday.

The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday becomes quite uncertain given the potential for Tuesday's front to either be offshore, stalled near the coast, or returning inland depending on the character of upstream convection and the position and strength of low pressure across eastern Quebec. The GFS shows several rounds of MCS convection possible within a stout westerly upper level flow across the Southeast Wednesday into Thursday while other models, particularly the Canadian, are drier. Needless to say, how this pattern will evolve should become clearer in a few more days.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR with light and variable winds (predominantly NW'ly)
expected through the 18Z TAF period. Showers and storms should form south of the area closer to the front that pushed through this morning, so no impacts to terminals are expected. A weak sea breeze should make winds more SW'ly at coastal terminals but again speeds will remain light. Skies clear further tonight with winds nearly calm with continued NW'ly flow expected through the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through Sunday. Threats to the flight categories come back Sunday night and especially Monday, as another cold front sweeps through the area.

MARINE
Tonight through Friday...NW winds AOB 10 kts will become more S/SW in the afternoon as an area of low pressure passes by Friday afternoon. Significant seas will be 1-3 ft with a dominant 7-9 second SE swell, increasing slightly Friday afternoon. There will also be a 7-9 second NE swell and a decreasing southerly wind wave.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Canadian high pressure will move eastward across the southern Appalachians Friday night and should reach the Carolina coast during the day Saturday. Expect light offshore winds Friday night into Saturday morning, but then turning onshore and increasing to at least 10-12 knots Saturday afternoon with the seabreeze.

Winds should veer southerly Saturday night into Sunday as the high moves farther offshore, gradually bringing in tropical warmth and humidity with time. This should lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday, perhaps becoming rather widespread Monday night as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will reach the coast Tuesday, but could stall as the area as the area of low pressure pushing it lifts north into Canada.

Outside of thunderstorms, the strongest synoptic winds expected over the next 5 days appear they will occur Monday into Monday night, southwest 15-20 kt, just ahead of the approaching front. This should yield seas building to around 4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

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Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

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