Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Myrtle Beach, SC

UPDATE
No significant changes to the forecast with the early afternoon update. Still not expecting much in the way of shower/storm activity later today but some high-res models do show a bit of convection, mainly north of a Lumberton to Elizabethtown to Burgaw line, so can't completely rule out an isolated damaging wind gust through early evening given plenty of shear, instability and downdraft CAPE. Record highs still look to be in play as well although high clouds could hamper heating a tad.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Somewhat deep west to northwest (early) flow will remain in place across the area today. Near record to record highs are expected for afternoon highs with only Florence (95 forecast...record 93) at least at this point explicitly in record territory. The next candidate to break a record is Lumberton (94 forecast...record 96) as the coastal areas may see a race between the resultant sea breeze which will be decent as the westerly flow isn't the strongest I have seen and the warmth. For tonight into Saturday morning expect warm and dry conditions to continue with lows in the lower to perhaps only middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Breezy conditions slated for Sat as a sfc trof across the central Carolinas gets displaced by a sfc cold front driving ESE. This aided by an upper low over the Great Lakes and associated upper trof axis extending south of it, all pushing to the East. By Sun daybreak the upper low will be over the NE States with its trof axis extending south across the area. This will help drive a cold front across the FA likely sat aftn and night. It'll likely stall just south of the FA as it becomes aligned parallel with the flow aloft. Models do scour a good chunk of moisture after crossing the Appalachians leaving mainly clouds associated with its passage. Eventhough POPS will be 20% at best, the isolated convection that does develop will immediately have the potential to go severe given the avbl instability and shear. Max temps in the 90s Sat will have the potential to reach record levels across a few of our climatic sites. Later Sun thru Sun night, building upper ridge axis along the MIssissippi River Valley and the upper trof axis off the SE STates Coast will result in NW flow aloft. Could see an embedded vort within this NW flow push across the FA Sun aftn resulting in a possibility of raising POPs across the FA. Not entirely bought on this given previous model runs kept it south of the FA. Sun max temps a few degrees cooler than Sat maxes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The FA will be more under the influence of the upper ridging across the Central U.S. with the upper trof axis remaining well offshore from the FA. NW flow aloft will continue Mon thru Tue with yet another embedded vort s/w trof that possibly drops across the FA within NW flow. Once again, confidence remains low given the back and forth progged movement/strength of this feature. Nevertheless, a reflection of it will be the cloudiness being invoked into the fcst. Late Tue into Wed the upper ridge axis pushes off the SE States Coast followed by a sharpening/amplifying upper trof across the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. This has been advertised by models, however the remain wishy-washy with any Pop threat. At this point will cap Pops in the low to possibly modest chance during the mid-week period.
Temps this period will start above normal then drop back to near or below normal depending how much of that Canadian airmass infiltrates the FA.

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through 18Z Sat. There is a very low risk of MVFR cigs at KLBT/KFLO late tonight and Sat morning as a shortwave approaches.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Southwest winds which have probably reached their peak just north of 15 knots will continue today in a range of 10-15 knots. Speeds will diminish slightly tonight before the low level jetting once again sees an uptick.
Significant seas will see a narrow range of 3-4 feet today dropping in a subtle nature to 2-4 feet later tonight into Saturday AM.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...Tightened sfc pg will be ongoing to start Sat off. Inland sfc trof will be replaced by a SE-ward dropping cold front Sat aftn. This front should push off the mainland and thru the local waters mainly Sat night.
Could see tstorm activity spring up after pushing off the coasts, as it interacts with the Gulf Stream. Winds Sat into Sat night will flirt with SCA 25+ kt wind gusts. The sfc pg will relax after FROPA and remain-so thru Mon night, resulting in reduced wind speeds to aob 10 kt. Wind directions will be the problem child during this period. By Tue, some organization of the pressure field as well as some tightening of the gradient.
Seas start at 2-4 ft with 5 footers possible. Mainly looking at wind driven waves at 5 or less second periods becoming dominant with an underlying small but identifiable SE swell at 8+ second periods.

CLIMATE
High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows:

For Friday, May 16th...
Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (2022)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941)

Saturday, May 17th...
Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.