Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Socastee, SC

UPDATE
Skies are clearing across the area after isolated showers earlier affected the Cape Fear region. The tale of these showers is an interesting one: the 12z MHX sounding was taken just outside of a satellite-located mid level moisture plume but the radiosonde measured steep lapse rates within the 700-500 mb layer. ASOS/AWOS ceilometer obs located the bottom of the moisture near 12000 feet AGL. Modifying the 12z MHX sounding to force a saturated layer at 12000 feet produced around 100 J/kg of elevated CAPE with an equilibrium level near 500 mb/19000 feet AGL. Radar echo tops matched pretty closely with this.

Models indicate the steeper lapse rates are trickling offshore and dry weather should prevail the remainder of the day. North winds should soon back to the west with gusts near 25 mph possible. No changes were made to forecast highs with lower 80s expected for most areas. The seabreeze will again be held back by all this offshore momentum with only limited ingress expected across Horry, Brunswick, and southern New Hanover counties.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The last of the channeled vorticity in the mid-levels will push across the FA and offshore by this evening. Will be looking at periodic cirrus and high altocu at times in addition to daytime Cu. There is a roughly 800mb to 650mb modeled subsidence inversion that should keep a lid on any vertical development of the Cu. At the sfc, a cold front will push further offshore this morning. A sfc trof extending from the NE low, will swing across the Carolinas today and off the mainland and offshore this evening. Although the pinched gradient not as robust as Thu, will still produce westerly 10-15 mph winds with g20+ mph as hier winds aloft are able to mix to the sfc. Do not expect any convection with this sfc feature given the channeled vort displaced away from the area at this time. (as opposed to the convection Thu evening ahead of the cold front). Will remain in cyclonic flow sfc thru aloft complements to the amplified and expansive NE States upper low. Will still have periodic cirrus and high altocu tonight as moisture associated with the southern stream pushes overhead. Todays highs generally 5+ degrees lower from the previous day, with 79-84 degree readings forecast.
Tonights lows will see widespread 50s to the lower 60s at the coast. With sfc dewpoints progged in the comfortable 40s to around 50, no fog expected. Winds will diminish by sunset, with light Westerly winds becoming light Northerly after the sfc trof passage.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Quiet with below normal temps Saturday with surface high pressure ridging in from northwest and mid-level ridge to the southeast, with zonal flow developing aloft. Could see mostly cloudy conditions Saturday afternoon as 500mb shortwave moves across the Carolinas, with ridging and very dry low levels keeping pops out of the forecast. Deeper moisture begins moving in from the west Saturday night, with a bit of a gradient during the day Sunday, with higher PWAT and more instability to the south and a bit drier to the north, before gradient lifts north.
Have chance pops across the CWA Sunday, slightly higher across NE SC, increasing area-wide Sunday night as a weak wave of low pressure attempts to develop along a coastal trough. Temps rebound to near normal Sunday and Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Extended period of unsettled and mostly cloudy weather remains in store for the long term period. Stationary front south of the area Monday will linger across the Southeast through middle of next week, with one or two waves of low pressure developing along the front competing with a wedge of high pressure from the north (almost CAD- like). Tuesday continues to have the highest pops, and highest QPF, for next week. Forecast gets a lot more uncertain Wednesday into Thursday, and currently have decreasing, but still low chance, pops.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24 hours. Westerly winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. The seabreeze is affecting KMYR and KCRE, however increasing westerly wind should uncharacteristically push the seabreeze back offshore.
Confidence in the precise time of this shift to west winds at KMYR and KCRE is uncertain, but 20-21z appears to be reasonable.

Extended Outlook...A stalled front will return north next week bringing moderate to high potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and showers/thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon.
At this time there are two windows that appear especially succeptible for aviation impacts: Sunday night into Monday morning, then again late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Mainly NW winds of 10 to 15 KT g20 kt through midday, becoming W to SW at the same speeds this afternoon thru this evening, ahead of the approaching sfc trof pinwheeling around the NE States low. After its passage later this evening, winds become NNW-NNE at 10-15 kt. Seas generally 2 to 4 FT today subsiding to 2 to 3 ft tonight. Wind generated waves at 5 or less second periods will dominate, with an underlying small SE swell around 9 second period.

Saturday through Tuesday...High pressure settles overhead for Saturday, with light and variable winds Saturday through early Sunday. Nearly perfect boating conditions with seas around 1-2 feet. By Sunday afternoon, southerly winds develop as high pressure moves offshore and a coastal trough sets up. Low pressure is forecasted to develop along the trough Sunday night and move across the waters into Monday, turning winds briefly north-northeasterly Monday into Monday night with increased wind speeds. Seas increase in turn to 3- 4 ft by Monday night with building ENE component. As low pressure exits the area and high pressure wedge develops inland, southeasterly winds return for Tuesday with seas slowly relaxing to 2-3 ft. Chance of thunderstorms over the local coastal waters Sunday through middle of next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.