Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rolling Hills Estates, CA

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...16/953 PM.

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge remaining in place along the Baja California coast this evening, while a weak disturbance that flattened the ridge some continues to exit the region. A warm and dry weather pattern will continue away from the coast as ridging aloft will continue to dominate weather pattern through much of this week. Any low clouds and fog will likely remain confined to the Central Coast and into South Bay and Harbor portions of Los Angeles County through Tuesday morning.

As the disturbance aloft vacates the region, a tight northerly pressure gradient remains in place creating gusty northerly winds across southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A wind advisory was added for the Interstate 5 Corridor this evening, in addition to the wind advisories remaining in effect for the southwestern Santa Barbara and the Santa Ynez mountain range. Wind gusts are already reaching advisory criteria across southwestern Santa Barbara County this evening, but the winds will increase overnight into the eastern portions of the Santa Ynez range and through the Interstate 5 Corridor.

No additional updates are planned to the forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, a warm stretch of weather will continue through at least mid week as a ridge of high pressure sits over the West Coast.
Temperatures trended a little cooler today in most areas as onshore flow to the east increased which created an earlier sea breeze. The main exception to that is southern Santa Barbara County where onshore flow to the north has decreased and has actually turned offshore. Thus, temperatures there are trending slightly warmer. And more importantly, the stage is being set for a moderate Sundowner event tonight and again tomorrow night with winds gusting to 50 mph through the canyons and passes from late afternoon through early morning creating some fire weather concerns. Similar concerns also for the I5 corridor, the Antelope Valley, and interior SLO County.

Across the region, highs Tue/Wed are expected to be within 3 or so degrees of today in most areas, except trending more on the higher side of that across the interior portions of SLO County and the Antelope Valley as well as southern SB County due to sundowner winds. For the LA/Ventura County valleys looking for highs in the 90s to around 102. And Downtown LA around 90.

A trough will begin to replace the ridge Thursday that will start a cooling trend that will carry into the weekend.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/110 PM.

A trough of low pressure will continue across the West Coast Friday and through the weekend and even into early next week which means much cooler temperatures and increasing marine layer stratus. High temperatures will drop to 3-6 degrees below normal area-wide through early next week with a steady dose of night and morning marine layer that may not fully clear some coastal areas.
Gusty onshore winds will continue across the Antelope Valley each afternoon and evening.

AVIATION
17/0609Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 5000 feet with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in all TAFs xcp for KSBP (20 percent chc of LIFR cigs 11Z-16Z), KLAX and KSMO (40 percent chc of LIFR cigs 12Z-16Z)
and KLGB (30 percent chc of no cigs).

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF from 12Z to 16Z with a 40 percent chc of OVC004 conds, otherwise high confidence. Any east wind component will be less than 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE
16/142 PM.

High confidence in gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the Central coast through the week. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Outer Waters through Tuesday night, and for the northern Inner Waters through this evening. For Tuesday afternoon through evening, there is a 40% chance of Gale force winds again in the northern Inner Waters. Seas will hover around 10 feet through the week, increasing to 10 feet this weekend. Gale force winds will be possible again by the end of the week.

Gusty SCA winds for western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evening hours are likely through Tuesday, with lower confidence thereafter. A Gale Watch is in place for Tuesday afternoon through evening, with Gale force winds focused across the western portions and away from Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors. Confidence in the Gale force winds being widespread enough to warrant a Gale Warning has trended lower since this morning.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels in the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts through the week. However, localized W to NW SCA level wind gusts may occur in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and through portions of the San Pedro Channel through Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).